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So BT said "our customer" as in the singular. Does that mean the once much vaunted large chemical company from the Far East has departed the Nanoco scene and so BT et alia have done a 1984 on them?
LordVM, Kooba is right to point out that ST are not explicitly saying that our dots are in any of their products. However, by "joining the dots", going back over the past 6 years I believe they are in the VD55G1. That a NIR product btw.
There is another sensor to come from ST, their SWIR Global Shutter sensor. That one intrigues me more but I won't go into detail on that as I am missing some info. I'll try very quickly to put my thoughts down now but it won't be polished.
XenOn - thanks for this. You're certain VD55G1 is the one then? Is that because of teh spec - it's SWIR and only QDs can do this? (I'm not technical at all, apologies if this is wrong).
"our customer said we should expect [more] orders...."
You'll have to listen to the whole thing to understand that he is talking about ST. The presentation was in January - i.e. 2 month after the first ST order was placed so he is definitely referring to additional future orders.
Anyway I guess people can make their own minds up:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oun9bCyzCFA
Certainly ' more ' not mentioned.
@Xenon
I thought he said 'a customer' as opposed to 'our customer'.
Even so regards time, the future is as long as a piece of string and he skips over the answer quickly by finishing ' I can't answer that question because we don't know' - doesn't sound as confident as yourself by a country mile !
TS, search "investor meet nanoco 2024" on youtube. 56mins 40 seconds in.
BT says "our customer (ST) has told us we should expect (more) orders but they have not told us when"
I think we know stm have never mentioned Nanoco or any orders publicly as far as i am aware , Nanoco has said that stm have led them to expect further orders so we have the company’s interpretation of STM s Intent. Mostly we rely on Nanoco saying that stm did not develop this product ..whatever it is to sell small amounts of it..which makes sense but then we have no means of really being able to ascertain where the stm product fits in the global market for SWIR sensors and whether the stm product is gaining any traction. Odd position to be in.
I queried the forecasts given by the company and its marketing research and was told
“When we give guidance for the following year we include assumptions about revenue wins (this is normal practice for most companies). The alternative is to explicitly state that the revenue guidance is based only on contracted orders.”
So it is saying current guidance includes anticipated contract wins..which is what i have been referring to ..they are not anticipating any material orders that move the revenue forecast at all , one given pre first order which was for £8.5m revenue this financial year. I was somewhat disappointed in this, as was expecting there to be some build up.
Of course, you could be more certain than BT - now that would be quite something !
@Xenon
As you know words are important, thinking what someone said is not quite the same.
Yet you gave the impression that you're 99.99% certain !
Troublesome, I’d have to go back and listen to the half year results presentation. I thought BT said it in the Q&A section.
LordVM, you would not want to know how much research I’ve been doing into this over the past few weeks. I’ve not posted anything, which will annoy some, as I’ve not had any concrete info. And I didn’t want to spam the board with everything I found as a lot of it has already been published by Kooba and others.
Basically, I’ve been down a lot of rabbit holes!
All I am certain of is that our dots are in the VD55G1, due for full production release about now. The SWIR sensor our dots are in doesn’t seem to have a name yet.
@Xenon
Could you quote the words used where we told by STM to "expect" more orders.
Kooba, I guess they could point to previous guidance, such as the half-year results, in which they told us that they had been told by ST to expect more orders.
In terms of an 2nd order influencing the SP, I think we would need to know a lot more about the order than they would be willing or able to publish. I.e. if they don’t provide much or any detail half of the investors might jump for joy and the other half might say they expect it is probably a small order. So I’m not sure it would move the SP much at all. Personally speaking, I am 99.99% convinced that Nanoco will receive follow on orders from ST but am 0.01% sure what the size of those orders or our profit margin will be!
I'd love to know what the STMicro product is that contains Nanoco's dots.
This one looks particularly exciting - VL53L9, and many of the ST project team that worked on it and Product Marketing people launching it are making a lot of noise about it (you can see their posts on Linkedin). If this is the one we could see a fast pick up in orders/adoption.
Are there any more technical people who have a view on this?
https://www.st.com/en/imaging-and-photonics-solutions/vl53l9ca.html
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/laurentplaza_stmicroelectronics-expands-into-3d-depth-activity-7166441160897462272-bWqf?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-7BENMOQV0
As stated before current guidance makes no allowance for any additional revenue above and beyond Samsung accounting and the r&d work know about for the current year…so nothing is factored into their guidance for commercial revenues at all.
Adding to that obviously there is expectation of performance in the current year in the market from the company and broker Edison forecasts..so if there was further small orders that collectively materially moved that expectation I believe they would have to produce a trading update as soon as they were aware such guidance was wrong ..a “likely to be higher than current market forecasts” so the research could be updated.. The financial year closes in July and they often produce a standard update in early August.
Valid point..they made a song and dance of the first commercial order which i still believe is smaller than any guidance but since their business is making and producing nano-materials any additional order would not necessarily have to be announced unless it met disclosure criteria and it was indeed meaningful..it would be their normal course of business. They could also carry on the share buyback as it is arms length and again small incremental orders are part of its business model and should be expected.
Having said that i would have to say that getting a second follow up order of any kind could be seen as information that is public could influence and ordinary investors view and lead to a price movement” so i guess they would have to take that on board as members of staff would be aware of further orders and it could be deemed price sensitive if it leaked.
Forgot to add, naturally we don't ever expect to be able to tie the order income with quantities of dots sold as it would be commercially sensitive.
I am assuming Nanoco doesn't have to publish an RNS each time it receives more orders from ST for the two types of dots? Or would they have to say something if the order was significant?
If they don't have to send more RNS's about follow on orders I guess we won't know more until they maybe say something in the commentary on the unaudited preliminary end of year results in October, or possibly in the year end trading update in August?
Most certainly, its more like asphalt and bitumen at the moment that's so easily washed away and creates potholes.
The last concrete news was really the first commercial order in the company's history but needs re-inforcing with far more detail - apologies for the analogies but new tyres may well provide a smoother ride.
Indeed. They only spent £36k on share buy backs yesterday. Doesn't look like many people want to sell at the current SP I guess. If yesterday's levels were to be the norm going forward they will be buying back shares until mid-July.
Scaling back buys due to volume but still seem to be close to 50% of the stripped out volume so they are taking any sells..this time working on the bid which seems more appropriate as is the price paid. Seems the volume may continue slipping back post tender as there is no news for now and it really will need something concrete to get some excitement going.