Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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interesting views. thanks guys. not sure I agree about 'focus on the resource, permits will come'. All the talk has been that sp is low because of uncertainty and risk about the permits. Once they are granted the project is fundamentally derisked. The current resource is sufficient for a highly profitable development which will provide community and environmental benefits. Bigger resource will obviously be even better, so the quicker proved up the better. Also not convinced that company is being 'managed to take through to production'. I don't think we have said to government we are a credible operator (i.e. gold producer). We have demonstrated that we're a credible explorer and asset developer and that the programme can be taken to production and meet all environmental and technical requirements. That doesn't mean we have to do it. And the transformation from a small explorer to a substantial producer would be mighty indeed, and requires a completely different set of skills and resources. I am sure with permits and growing resource the company (or asset) will be bought - esp to replenish a larger producer's dwindling resource, but with all conditions and safeguards which CNR is building in with Nic govt and IFC transferred.
Well written Aguila you're on the same page as me. The TSX listing is in the post and as you say the interims contain quarterly accounts for this reason. The focus here should be on the resource we have the permits will come.
Wondergoals, the Company should never have listed on AIM in the first place as the market is hopeless for explorers!! That's a decision inherited by MC. Don't forget there was a 5 year bear market with gold dropping over 40% and the HUI Index of explorers and Condor's share price falling 90%. There was no point in spending money on a TSX listing and incurring extra operating costs (compliance fees, quarterly accounts) during a bear market. The market has stabilised in the last 2 years, gold has formed a good base and is in a trading range between 1150 and 1,350, technically looking good with higher lows. However, investment sentiment is still fragile, but now is the time to list on the TSX. The listing should be before year end because 1) the interims contain quarterly accounts, which are required for the TSX, they are not there by accident 2) see DGF video, there is a massive hint at a TSX listing The OTCQX trading, it isn't a listing, costs around US$25,000. Very small for North American exposure for a Central American asset. it is okay but a questionable decision. The main prize is TSX or TSXV listing, see what it did for Mariana Resources before it was taken over this year. Sol Gold got a secondary listing on the TSX in June 2017. The Company is being managed to take through to production. You can't really say to the Government "give me the permits, i am a credible operator" and in the same breath say " i am going to flog the asset'. That said, La India is shaping up to be world class and whether they like it or not, my best guess is they will receive an Approach or bid in the next 12 to 18 months. US$700 oz all in sustaining cash costs, production up to 165k oz p.a.and an asset that can double to 5M oz gold. the strategy is correct. it is tragic that this BB is overly focused on permits, they don't really matter that much, there are other valuation triggers.
Certainly don't Elgordo - it's at the point in the life cycle where share price rise should be most rapid (last few months before first pour). It is a majot achievement to get it done on time and well under budget, so I think there is plenty more to come there yet.
Aguila - if TSX listing is important (and I agree, I think it is too), why hasn't the company done it yet - been talking about it for years - and why did they waste time, energy and money on the pathetic US listing which has done nothing? I think I've seen you and others suggesting TSX listing may happen before Xmas. Do you still think so? Assuming permits comer do we think that CNR will try and take it through to BFS or do you think plan would be to sell before then? I seem to recall that IFC committed to fund this work if required (or did I dream that?)
You don't think it's too late on HUM to catch a solid gain now it's 38ish? Would be nice if both birds took off for sure!
Nero, is he? Thought he'd moved entirely over to HUM. Maybe he's kept some residual here? Yes, I'm over there and very bullish on it. Management has played an absolute blinder - on track for first gold pour this year and way under budget...it will become a mid-tier gold producer I have no doubt. Check out some of the recent video interviews if you have any doubts. Darola over on HUM posted a good gold chart which you Condorians will also like: "Everything points gold going on a bull run https://twitter.com/darola841662/status/921764333712965633"
*bear market
Heh heh, Jibbo's still here Strider. He posted the Sprott gold panel video link on the HUM board an hour after i posted it here. :) I see you're invested there too? It will be interesting to see if once they announce their first gold pour they get a big bump in sp. With the markets as they are at the moment I'd give it 50/50. Just wish this damn near market would end!
Nice article there Nero - one of the clearest I've seen on the topic. I think CNR are definitely closer to stage 3 than 1 now, but even with the environmental permits out of the way there is still the BFS and debt financing to sort. And while I don't think that will be a problem, given the quality of the project, MC's financial background and the likes of JM, what's his name and the IMF on board, it will still take time - think 6 months minimum for the debt funding following a year to complete the BFS. From where things stand I think you'd have to be pretty happy if fully funded debt-financed construction had started two years from now (Q4 2019) with first gold pour say mid 2021. The wildcard is being taken over, but that has been touted for years on here ( I remember Jibbo going on about it even as far back as 2011!), and anyone who is banking on that happening is playing the long shot indeed. For anyone who wants to know where Jibbo is now, he's in HUM, which is due its first gold pour (107koz gold/yr at AISC $700) in less than 2 months from now! Check out where that is on the life cycle curve...
Simon, the market is losing site of the fact that permits will be granted. We all know resettlement means the permits will take time as the company has to reach a deal with the community. It is an old mining town that can be brought back to life. The Government has permitted 3 open pits at 3 difference mines in the last 2 months. Golden Reign for 500tpd a new mine, an open pit at Libertade mine and one at El Limon. The negativity surrounding permits is completely overdone and unwarranted. The market has got it wrong, which is why this is an amazing buying opportunity. The project has got bigger and better in the last few years with the geochemistry and 10,000m drilling. TSX listing should trigger a re-rating. AIM is useless and doesn't understand explorers. The cycle has turned with the majors looking to replace depleting ounces and have a pipeline of new mines.
I hope so too!
Wow those were the days Ladylucky! But to think how much progress we've made since then, I think we've been hit by both a cyclical downturn in the sector as well as the famous "lifecycle of a junior miner" share chart structure: http://www.theel1tetrader.com/2015/05/common-junior-miner-pitfalls.html Hopefully we're closer to the end of stage 2 than the beginning!
True but that said, the SP was over �2 a few years back (without permits)! I guess CNR is just not the flavour of the month any more.
without the permits Condor owns nothing but someone else's land. The government needs to make a strong decision, If yes then be proactive if no let everyone get on with their lives. This stasis is no good for no one.