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Bank Of Ireland Share Chat (BIRG)



Share Price: 5.96Bid: 5.92Ask: 6.00Change: 0.00 (0.00%)No Movement on Bank Of Ireland
Spread: 0.08Spread as %: 1.35%Open: 6.025High: 0.00Low: 0.00Yesterday’s Close: 5.96


Share Discussion for Bank Of Ireland


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torquay
Posts: 2,472
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:5.96
Dudgeons
Fri 14:09
Is of course Dudsons - why does the machine keep doing this - I can make enough mistakes without any help from predictive text.

Good luck all and happy Easter again and to X4 - if your there.
 
torquay
Posts: 2,472
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:5.96
Happy Easter to everyone
Fri 13:55
Just on my way in to what they call here "The Chapel" for 3.0'clock - once I have tidied myself up and trimmed the whiskers the Colleen and I will walk in which takes about fifteen minutes.
I think that our share and City sentiment is reacting to the latest stay in the crawl to the edge of the Abyss, although one of my principal suppliers Dudsons, went into liquidation last week giving only one days notice to the remainder of its workforce which was already reduced by about 60% from the days before my retirement.
And still they claim that the country will rise like the Pheonix from the ashes that remain - Dudgeons were a very smart operation and financially very astute - this liquidation did not happen by accident and was not due to them devaluing their product. Two hundred years of good employment gone for good - it will never be replaced.
Howth
Posts: 128
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:5.96
CoCo's
Fri 11:53
Many thanks Observe. Happy Easter, to all.
Observe
Posts: 112
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:5.96
Coco Investing
Thu 14:05
The actual mechanics of CoCos are fairly simple: They pay a high(er) coupon but have an equity conversion trigger. This is linked to Tier 1 Capital ratio. More recent issues have a conversion trigger of 8% Tier 1 (this coincides with the Basle 1 convention on Capital....obviously no longer as we are on Basle 3 now). So if a Bank's Tier 1 Capital drops to or below 8% then the CoCo Bond is converted to equity (conversion price is normally defined... in BIRG''s first issue it was 5c ...old pricing). You as a holder of CoCo become owners of equity/shares at that price. There is no condition of write off but obviously your share price could go to zero after conversion.
The secret is to understand the bank as a credit. The Cyprian Banks issued CoCos when their NPL were still up at 25-35%, selling the story that they were a good alternative to deposits in the bank. This was untrue as we now see with their imminent collapse and depositors would have retained more value by not holding CoCos. A bank like Deutsche issued CoCo Bonds when they had the biggest derivative exposure in the world, exposure that was not correctly priced to maturity and which utilised far more capital in a final analysis. Their CoCo Bonds were therefore toxic before they even issued. Bad news!!
Where a balance sheet is not totally transparent and future events could cause chaos stay away. BKIR is clean. Its NPL are clearly defined and no longer a threat to the well being of the bank. It operates primarily in mortgages and spreads its risk between two economies. I guess one could have an absolute wipe out in housing as we saw in 2006/07 or a complete collapse in the UK market but these are things that are tangible and forecast(able).
The terms of their issuance will be very interesting. I hope they don't get too cheeky....if they do then blame Draghi and his voodoo economics.
Howth
Posts: 128
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:5.92
CoCo investing
Thu 11:39
Thanks Observe.
Can you elaborate on pitfalls of investing in CoCo's, especially if things go wrong.
Conditions for Compulsary conversion to equity?
Conditions for total write off?
Dangers of contagion from outside sources even when BOI is well funded?
Please, keep posting, your posts are, very informative.
Observe
Posts: 112
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:6.00
CoCo Issuance
Thu 08:46
All about tiering and cost!
CoCo issuance will most likely be the most expensive option on the debt spectrum (nominal rate around 6.5% but deduction of interest charge for tax will drop that in the bank's books to about 50% of that). Benefits though are a) Teir 1 capital inflow without equity issuance b) duration will be either 7 years or maybe 10 years. Irish banks have not really accessed past 7 years in terms of standard issuance c) A wide range of debt instruments is a sign of a mature and strong bank balance sheet. Savvy management would use such issuance to market to their depositor base, offering respite from the zero rate environment over the past years. Critical to this is the belief and knowledge of the bank (went horribly wrong with the Cyprian Banks a number of years ago.... resulting in a series of lawsuits going on right now). I view BIRG an an ideal candidate, clean balance sheet, high Tier 1 Capital base, strong income flow and focused on a base activity, mortgage lending in two countries.
Howth
Posts: 128
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:6.025
Observe CcCo issue
Wed 22:21
I'M not well up on CoCo issuance, but are they not considered an expensive wat to raise Tier 1capital?
Observe
Posts: 112
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:6.025
7 Bells
Wed 17:31
7 Bells is no dream and may be closer than many believe! 7.70 is NAV 1:1 and is the first target in any ability to grow the book. As explained if this can be accelerated via gearing rather than equity capital then watch this space. The market is not stupid....the move from 5Bells to 6 Bells coincided with the triggering two of the three leveraging initiatives. The third one happens post AGM.
As a by comment keep your eye open for the terms of the CoCo issue. In a bank of this nature a CoCo is highly desirable for investors. BIRG had one previously, coming out of the 2008 mess and largely held by government. 10% coupon and a 5% trigger capital ratio. One of the best investments ever held! This time I would call 6.5% coupon and 8% trigger capital ratio. Mark it down as a buy!!!
Observe
Posts: 112
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:6.025
Re Grow Up..Interest rate specific
Wed 17:20
With respect to interest rates and Draghi, Meyers has a real point. With regard to Europe and to BIRG I would say his extrapolation of opinion is tenuous and ill informed!!
Daghi's imposition of negative rates in Europe is destructive, wrong and largely based on false assumption. His constant cry to use CPI at 2% as the basis of monetary policy is wrong and false. In an economy that has posted sub 1% CPI for the past 10 years, one cannot use 2% as the basis of policy. It is a fabrication of the truth and has been used to destroy savers and award borrowers. This is a destruction of basic economics and will have consequent going forward. In Europe the base CPI should have been set at 1% and action taken around this marker.....we would never have fallen into the trap of lending governments money free and destroying the yield curves of the continent. For this he should have been driven out of offices 5 years ago and refused a pension!! Let us all hope that the German candidate gets the nod and we re enter the real world by the end of 2019.
BIRG is shielded from this madness. It runs a mortgage book in two countries and its only objective is to grow and stay cost effective. It too derives money at zero from the ECB and also from savers for the most part. A rise in rates in Europe will be a small benefit but nothing to shoot the lights out.
Hotdog1
Posts: 1,111
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:6.025
sp
Wed 17:16
so between Observes observations and ChrisMeyers , 7 bells is not a pipe dream
Observe
Posts: 112
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:6.025
Additional Capital Buffers
Wed 16:58
This additional capital is a requirement imposed at European level and raising the ratio required is already well underway. This in itself is not a problem/issue and on balance is probably a good thing. The issue is how management handle it and in this regard BIRG is well ahead of the game, indeed should be strongly commended! How so: Those of you punters that follow things closely, as one should, may have seen a number of initiatives already triggered. These are a) subordinated debt offerings ( a substantial amount has already been raised at very competitive rates close to flat euribor) b) independently funded NPLs, taking them off balance sheet reducing that ratio closer to 5% and freeing up capital. Latest one announced about 10 days ago c) announcement of the intention to raise a CoCo issue post AGM. The details are announced in a resolution to obtain shareholders approval at the AGM mid May.
All of these initiatives have the effect of raising accepted Tier One Capital, as per regulations, effectively removing the need to come to the market for any equity capital. It is therefore an effective gearing up of the balance sheet and in the event of the bank being able to accelerate lending/growth then growing return on assets. In turn return on capital accelerates and the propensity to raise dividends accelerates. SP goes up!!!
Hats off to management on this one!!!
ChrisMeyers
Posts: 35
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:5.99
RE: Re grow up
Wed 15:54
Speaking of rates not rising, they SHOULD HAVE. Europe is an a absolute basketcase and sh-tshow. These idiots (chiefly Draghi) kept interest rates at 0 to negative for almost a decade. All while other developed countries started to normalize interest rates, chiefly America with 7 or 8 quarter point hikes since 2015. You have to ask yourself a serious question. What the hell is the EU and the ECB going to do when the next recession really occurs? They have nothing to cut! And European banks like BOI are suffering beyond any normal standards for what seems like it might be permanently with interest rates that stifle any growth and recovery they could have. It is all going to collapse for Europe in the next decade. Brexit, the upcoming EU parliamentary elections, increasing number of Euro skeptic countries, woefully bad monetary policy. It is a basket of deplorables. Notre Dame burning down is apt as a metaphor in this time as a representation of Europe. This stock and BOI will only recover when EU monetary policy normalizes. And that doesnt seem to be coming anytime soon. Sorry to be a negative nancy, but things have to be said.
buyBuyBYE
Posts: 43
Opinion:Buy
Price:5.94
Additional capital buffers
Wed 11:36
At this rate the bank is going to be all buffer!

Central Bank says Irish banks need ‘systemic risk buffer’ against shocks
via The Irish Times
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/central-bank-says-irish-banks-need-systemic-risk-buffer-against-shocks-1.3862705
SurfsUp777
Posts: 18
Opinion:Hold
Price:5.89
Fintech?
Wed 09:47
Anyone Heard any more about Fintech developments & BIRG? :Linking up with Worldfirst etc.?

might give the sp a lift especially when BIRG has invested so heavily in this
PGee
Posts: 598
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:5.955
Susan69
Tue 22:29
Whatever are you talking about? Rates??? It is well known to all here that I only go on about manipulation, our ongoing problem, of which today was a perfect example.
Hotdog1
Posts: 1,111
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:5.955
SP
Tue 18:45
there will always be pull backs ..... with profit taking ..... 7 bells by July , any takers ? any ? :)
susan99
Posts: 199
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:5.955
Re grow up
Tue 18:22
Your not getting it!
About four years ago you posted every day about how rates were going to rise they never did. Enough said
PGee
Posts: 598
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:5.955
RE: Grow up
Tue 18:17
The word is whinge, surprised you above all people are unfamiliar with its spelling.
susan99
Posts: 199
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:5.955
Grow up
Tue 18:01
Couple of Wingebags on here start crying every time the share pulls back a bit
Buzz off
skinnarney
Posts: 76
Opinion:Hold
Price:5.935
RE: 7 Bells
Tue 16:32
Agree PGee. Back down she goes. Ridiculous!
PGee
Posts: 598
Opinion:Buy
Price:5.965
RE: 7 Bells
Tue 15:40
In full flight now dumping cheap shares in Dublin, can’t see SP holding up above the psychological six, hope I'm wrong, a lot of odd movements in Dublin earlier.
torquay
Posts: 2,472
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:5.94
7 Bells
Tue 15:29
I am keeping the faith - I've just sent the Colleen into town to light another candle - I'm dressing the lawn.

Good luck all - that was some candle in Paris - could it be a message - if the ground starts to shake, we'll all have a god moment, never mind the people of Paris.
PGee
Posts: 598
Opinion:Buy
Price:6.02
RE: 7 Bells
Tue 09:52
I hope so, but they haven’t gone away, we are the only bank in Europe showing red today, earlier the ask price was lower than SP in Dublin, not a good sign. However volumes are low and a bit of demand should change that, keep buying I say!
Observe
Posts: 112
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:6.025
7 Bells
Tue 09:04
Keep the faith, stay in line! The reward will come!!
susan99
Posts: 199
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:6.02
Begin
15 Apr '19
Is that what we paid 1.5billion for




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