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Throw away that shovel quickly, cookie. That hole you're in is of ample sufficiency. 😂
Cuckoo,
It says EVERYTHING when you equate COULD with DEFINITELY.
QED.
John if you could read between the lines you would know that when the ECB saying could means definitely
When talking about 50cent more in Birg I was quoting you
As for the clown below when share price was €6.604 sell sell sell. And who agreed with him JH
Cuckoo,
would strongly recommend that you google the term "volatility". a week is a long time in politics and 6.5 weeks is longer in the market.less than a month ago BIRG traded at 8.92 (26/3) and as low as 7.92 on 26/2.
As regards "crystal clear" google states "ECB rates COULD be cut in June. You should also google "could" and you will find it's definition is very different to WILL. In fact their comments are on a par with those issued on 19/4 by the President and Governing Council of the ECB. So much could happen in coming 6.5 weeks to adjust the ECB mindset. Ukraine/Middle East tensions could escalate - oil /energy prices could escalate - you might cease looking through the rear view mirror . As regards a week being a long time in politics , less than a week ago you called me out for being "not fair when stopping/advising a poster not to sell at 10.12 " on same day you posted "... dont sell at 10.12 -go up another 50c, unfortunately currently at 9.55" Make your mind up as the song goes.
Excellent summery on the share buyback status @JohnHume.
If your call on timing of completion is right then the SP will remain firmly underpinned, for now.
Headwinds are growing however and once the underpin is completed, beware. At European and US bank level there appears to be pressure on the lending margin, the mainstay of banking and definitely so in the case of the Irish banks. For some reason they (Irish) have been able to get away with continuing to pay zero on call funds and for now appear to have been prepared to partly negate the full hike in lending rates, in particular to mortgages. This game in the US is about to break out, with massive backlash on zero bank rates when the curve is above 5% in the short end.
The other big issue is growth. No reason why BoI is going to outperform their performance in 2023. This year they do not and will not have a bump up from acquiring a good sized loan book. A net reduction of lending of E5b will not look pretty at the end of the year.
Sounds good
Our Johnny is calling €10.62 as a get out price premature ej…..
Not sure if this has been posted recently. Article in the Sunday Indo, Goldman Sachs have BIRG as a buy with a 12 month PT of €11.70 up €1.
Afternoon all. Starting off recognising that I know sweet FA….but here’s my tuppence on Irish Banking Shares. AiB sp is flying. Curious as to why BoI is lagging in market cap? A more cautious borrower and lender in ireland is both a positive (less bad debts) & negative (banks gotta lend for future earnings) - and assuming that interest rates unlikely to go below 2% in the near/medium it appears that there is good profits, good dividends to be made by all. Difficulties on the horizon - commercial real estate in ireland and abroad, the affect on Irish bank SP when a financial crisis hits in US (when, not if), markets view on other opportunities. Market cap on AiB seems reasonable historically. 15bn would be pushing it. A 12.5bn mc on BoI not unreasonable so 25% potential upside. Perm? A ruling on funds needed to be held against borrowing should see an upside of 30%. But…….what am I missing here?
It’s very clear Google ECB Crystal clear and you will see all the members of the governing council ‘s views
Let it go You loser
BIRG have bought back 16,176,435 shares as on the 18 April at a cost of €147,147,857. Average daily volume = 462,183 at average daily cost of €4,204,224.Balance available for buy backs = €372,852,143..
Between today and ex div date of 11 May there are 14 trading days so am assuming a buy back total of c 7 million shares at an assumed cost of little under €70 million leaving a balance of c.€300million for buy backs post ex div date. ie 30million shares approx to be bought back prior to release of H1 24 results in July so the buy back ante to be raised.
Divs applicable to c.23 million shares ( 16,176345 plus 7mill) = 13,905,807.
According To Christine Lagarde today - "Euro zone inflation is likely to decline further and the ECB MAY apply the scissors to interest rates if it's long standing price growth criteria are met ".
At the same time it's Governing Council is NOT PRECOMMITTING to a particular rate path " Lagarde said.REPEATING the Bank's most recent guidance.
Risks to the inflation outlook are 2 sided she said - upside risks include heightened geopolitical tensions as well as higher wage growth and more resilient profit margins.
So , Cuckoo, you may read between the lines, above the lines , below the lines or even the lines themselves but I for one cannot see any reference to it being CRYSTAL CLEAR that the scissors SHALL be applied in June with a further scissors application in July. Later I shall reexamine the comments of the ECB President and it's Governing Council through the eyes of an Eagle.
Interesting to note that AIB is now not far off Davy target price (about 8%) - however the current BIRG price is still way below their target price - looks like the momentum is with AIB at present.
Please explain where you got €14m figure from I’m not sure about it
AIB up 14.6% since going ex div.would be nice if BIRG appreciated 50% of that following ex div.
The 14mill saving on div payments going to reserves will help.
ECB have now moved on to discussing weather to cut again in July
Ash, yes I see what you mean with the “7%” today, although is a better look!
GLA
It would be great for everyone if we can reset and stop the childish bickering.
Hopefully the SP momentum upwards continues.... GLA
Johnny I’d give that post 2/10
I think your mixing up cooking with cuckoo
Cristal clear Johnny cristal clear
Read between the lines Johnny How many times
Cuckoo,
I fully appreciate the fact that when you are not camped in other birds nests you are in the air beneath the clouds with the benefit of bird's eye view of events.However you are not blessed with the eyes of an eagle.
Also,while you may post that the ECB is "Crystal Clear" on a June rate cut I have never known the ECB or the BOE or the FED to make SPECIFIC comment on future rate movement(s) as their language is in the form of "may" or "might" etc leaving their future options open and LEAVING YOU TO READ BETWEEN THE LINES.
ECB “ Crystal Clear “ on June rate cut. As I said before Johnny you need to start reading between the lines!
Ignore the London SP. The real action is in Dublin. €9.75 just now. GLTA
I think it's a glitch as I couldn't see the 5% drop elsewhere including my Degiro account. It seemed to rise another 0.6% in after hours trading too.
What’s with the 5% drop?
GLA
Let’s hope you’re correct as usual!
Gone for a burton now means even Steven’s 🤔
The FED'S ongoing fight against inflation could take longer than expected with 1 FED Policymaker suggesting rates could remain at their current levels until 2025.
According to top ECB official prospect for use of interest scissors in June assumes no further set backs in the geopolitical situation affecting energy prices and other inflationary factors.
British price inflation slowed by less than expected to 3.2% in March when the BOE had forecast a drop to 3.1%. The BOE is likely to want more conclusive evidence that a sustainable return to the target level of 2% has been achieved before they pivot to further use of the scissors.
So the Cuckoo is 100% certain that the scissors will be put to good use by June 6 following ECB meeting. My feeling ,as it was towards close of 23, is that it is even steven at the moment but if the geopolitical situation deteriorates , as mentioned by ECB official, the scissors may not be used in 24.
I am sure the Board will be delighted to see you are finally converted to Inspector Clouseau's philosophy with more visionary use of the front window and less of the rear view mirror. Your concern for a fellow poster is very touching and heart warming. It is so heart felt would not be surprised if you went wailing to Mama. However our fellow poster may take comfort when BIRG hits 10.5 or thereabouts before the scissors is plunged into the interest heart.
Good job nobody remembers my “she will > €10 by the summer “ disaster! Ah well this old FKIR never fails to disappoint…..
GLA