Valuation20 Apr 2024 13:08
Afternoon all. Starting off recognising that I know sweet FA….but here’s my tuppence on Irish Banking Shares. AiB sp is flying. Curious as to why BoI is lagging in market cap? A more cautious borrower and lender in ireland is both a positive (less bad debts) & negative (banks gotta lend for future earnings) - and assuming that interest rates unlikely to go below 2% in the near/medium it appears that there is good profits, good dividends to be made by all. Difficulties on the horizon - commercial real estate in ireland and abroad, the affect on Irish bank SP when a financial crisis hits in US (when, not if), markets view on other opportunities. Market cap on AiB seems reasonable historically. 15bn would be pushing it. A 12.5bn mc on BoI not unreasonable so 25% potential upside. Perm? A ruling on funds needed to be held against borrowing should see an upside of 30%. But…….what am I missing here?