Thomas Cook Regulatory News (TCG)

11 February 2015

First Quarter Results for the three months ended 31 December 2014

Thomas Cook reports further progress in line with expectations

Financial highlights

· Like-for-like Revenue increased by 1.6%, or £24 million, in the quarter to £1,519 million (Q1 2014: £1,495 million) reflecting progress in our New Product and Winter Sun initiatives

· Underlying EBIT margin over the last 12 months improved to 3.9%, an increase of 120 basis points compared to the previous year on a like-for-like basis

· Loss from operations in the quarter decreased by 42%, or £53 million, to £73 million (Q1 2014: loss of £126 million) on a like-for-like basis, following a £46 million reduction in separately disclosed items

· Net debt reduced by £24 million (£55 million on a like-for-like basis) to £1,262 million (Q1 2014: £1,286 million) reflecting improved cash flow

Current trading highlights

· Overall trading is in line with expectations: Winter 2014/15 is 85% sold for the Group as a whole, broadly in line with last year, and Summer 2015 is 41% sold, 3% higher than this time last year

· Robust trading in the UK, with a significant increase in bookings for both Winter and Summer

· Trading conditions in Continental Europe and parts of Northern Europe have been tougher, against strong comparatives, although we have seen a significant improvement in recent weeks

· Airlines Germany is performing well, especially in the long haul segment, with the impact of strong competition evident in the short and medium haul market

· Turkey and the Canaries continue to be our most popular destinations, volumes to Egypt are improving, and the USA is growing strongly driven by new routes

Progress in executing our strategy

· Further cost out and profit improvements driving bottom line benefits: Wave 1 delivered a further £29 million of benefits in the quarter, bringing the cumulative total benefits realised to £429 million

· New product revenue grew by £44 million in the quarter (growth in Q1 2014: £37 million) driven both by exclusive product (Concept and Partnership hotels) and by flexible, dynamic packages

· UK EBIT margin improved to 3.7% over the last 12 months (Q1 2014: 2.3%), reflecting the impact of operational improvements including cost out initiatives and better product

· Our digital progress continues, with bookings on Thomascook.com, our main UK site, up by 24% for December alone, and by 10% for the quarter as a whole, although the removal of other low-margin hotel only business has led Group web penetration to remain at 38% over the last 12 months

· New, simplified management structure put in place to improve the execution of strategic priorities, and to streamline decision making

Outlook

We continue to make good progress strengthening our product offering, digitising our business and improving the Group's efficiency. Our UK business and German Airline business have grown both revenues and operating profits during the quarter. While trading conditions continue to be tough, particularly in Continental Europe and Northern Europe, we nevertheless expect to deliver further growth in FY15, consistent with our expectations at our recent full year results.

Peter Fankhauser, Chief Executive of Thomas Cook commented:

"Our performance in the quarter demonstrates the strong progress we continue to make in transforming Thomas Cook. We are particularly pleased with the performance of our UK business, which is now achieving its highest underlying EBIT margin since 2009, while at a Group level we have nearly halved our first quarter operating loss. Although it's early days, our strategy for profitable growth through New Products and Winter Sun is delivering results. The trading environment in many of our markets continues to be tough, but we believe the measures we are taking to improve our businesses will continue to strengthen our competitive position. Our strategy remains to generate sustainable profitable growth by providing differentiated and exclusive holidays while driving efficiencies in production and distribution, underpinned by digital excellence. I am confident that our focus on rigorous implementation will continue to drive significant improvements in the Group's performance."

Presentation to equity analysts

A conference call and webex for investors and analysts will be held today at 8.30 a.m. (GMT). The access details are as follows:

To join the web portion of our meeting, please access the following link: https://btevent.webex.com/btevent/onstage/g.php?MTID=ef9ffacbf8905a7dd7db65b391a991af1and enter event number 841 028 610, and password 776454.

Forthcoming announcement dates

The Group intends to issue a pre-close update on 31 March 2015 and announce its results for the six months ended 31 March 2015 on 20 May 2015.

Enquiries

FINANCIAL REVIEW

Revenue

Group revenue has grown by 1.6%, or £24 million, to £1,519 million on a like-for-like basis, driven by increased sales of New Products including Concept Hotels, city breaks and other flexible product, and by a strong end to the summer season (October) in Airlines Germany, which increased passenger volumes and benefited from higher ancillary sales. However, tough trading conditions especially in Continental Europe have depressed prices, which partially offsets the positive effects.

Gross profit

Group gross profit of £327 million was flat on a like-for-like basis as the benefit of new product sales, further Wave 1 cost savings and lower fuel costs were offset by lower average selling prices and the increase in charges relating to the EU261 legislation.

Underlying gross margin of 21.6% is 30 basis points lower than the prior year comparative. This reflects pricing pressures caused by overcapacity in the airline market creating high levels of competition, especially in Continental Europe.

Underlying EBIT

Group underlying operating loss reduced by £7 million to £(53) million, following a reduction in operating expenses of £7 million on a like-for-like basis to £380 million. This was achieved through the delivery of a further £13 million of Wave 1 cost savings, partially offset by £3 million strategic operating investments and a £3 million increase in overheads, mainly due to higher depreciation charges.

Segmental analysis of Underlying EBIT

The UK business continued to show improved profitability, with an increase in like-for-like EBIT of £7m. This result came from the enhanced product offering, including a higher proportion of concept hotels and long haul destinations, combined with further cost out delivered through the WAVE programme, most of which has mitigated the increase in direct costs associated with the EU261 legislation.

Continental Europe also delivered EBIT growth, of £2 million on a like-for-like basis, against tough comparatives last year. This has been delivered through further cost out offset by a slight reduction in gross margin, which was adversely impacted by continued intense competition exerting downward pressure on selling prices.

Northern Europe's EBIT has reduced by £3m in Q1 15. This represents a resilient performance overall, with Sweden and Denmark showing an improved performance, while trading conditions in Norway were more difficult.

Airlines Germany recorded like-for-like EBIT growth of £4m for Q1, driven by a strong conclusion to the summer season in October and selected long haul capacity being added to the Winter 14/15 schedule, which benefits the months of November and December. This has been partly offset by continued pressure in the short haul market.

Corporate costs are £3m higher year-on-year reflecting the additional skill sets required to deliver the transformation.

Separately Disclosed Items

Separately Disclosed Items reduced by £44 million to £27 million for the quarter in total (including finance related charges), and by £46 million to £20 million at an EBIT level. The table below summarises the year-on-year development. 

Note: Items labelled Cash will impact cash either in the period or in a future period. non-cash items will not have any future effect on Cashflow

Restructuring costs of £9 million include £3 million in relation to Wave 1 transformation projects with the remainder comprising costs associated with the Group-wide transformation and Head Office reorganisation costs.

Within onerous contracts, the Group has recognised an accelerated non-cash charge of £8 million to provide for future losses in relation to the previously disclosed termination of a UK outsourcing contract.

Amortisation of intangible assets relates to the result of the merger between Thomas Cook AG and MyTravel Group plc and other business combinations made in subsequent years.

Finance related charges include notional interest of £2 million on the discounted value of deferred acquisition consideration, a £4m net interest charge arising on the Group's defined benefit pension schemes and a £1 million charge recognised in respect of IAS39 allocations of the time value of derivative products.

Loss from operations (EBIT)

The Group loss from operations reduced in the quarter by 42%, or £53 million, on a like-for-like basis to £73 million. This improvement reflects the reductions in operating expenses and separately disclosed items set out above.

Cash Conversion

The Group uses a measure of cash conversion reflecting the amount of cash flow retained by the business and which can be used for investment in capital expenditure, debt repayment or payment of dividends.

The Group's cash conversion measure over the last 12 months was 53% compared to 25% for the 12 months ended 31 December 2013. The cash conversion result at the end of December 2014 includes disposal proceeds realised during FY14; excluding those proceeds, Group cash conversion would be 39%. 

Net Debt

The components of the movement in Net Debt over the last 12 months are:

The overall reduction in Net Debt is £24m. On a like-for-like basis, excluding exchange rate movements and reclassification of leases, which the Group considers to be out of its control, the reduction is £55m.

After the period end, on 23 January 2015, the Group completed its offering of €400 million Senior Notes due 2021, further strengthening its financial position by extending and rebalancing the debt maturity profile and increasing liquidity, especially in the context of the forthcoming redemption of its outstanding €400 million 6.75% guaranteed notes, due in June 2015.

Hedging of Fuel and Foreign Exchange

The Group operates a rolling programme of hedging to smooth fluctuations in the price of fuel and currency, in order to provide greater price certainty when planning for current and future seasons. The proportion of our forthcoming requirements for Euros, US Dollars and Jet Fuel that have been hedged are shown in the table below. 

As at 9 February 2015

For Jet Fuel, we are now 100% hedged for FY15, 54% hedged for FY16 and 0% for FY17. Our hedging policy means that any long term movements in the price of Jet Fuel take time to impact our net fuel costs. As Jet Fuel is priced in US Dollars, we also buy forward the requisite amount of US Dollars from a mix of base currencies. As we are now 100% hedged for FY15, changes in the price of Jet Fuel will have no further impact on our fuel costs during the year. For the first quarter, our fuel costs were £7 million lower than in Q1 2014, reflecting the lower hedge rates in place, partially offset by an increase in flying.

We also hedge our transactional exposure to a range of non-fuel related foreign currency costs, including the US Dollar, the Euro and a number other currencies. Currently 87% of these exposures are hedged for FY15, 33% for FY16 and 0% for FY17. A 1% movement in the US Dollar exchange rate would result in a £0.2 million variance in FY15, while a 1% movement in the Euro exchange rate would result in a £1.1 million variance in FY15, based on our current proportion of hedging for the year.

The Group's policy is not to hedge the translation impact of profits generated outside the UK. If current rates for Euro and Swedish Krona were maintained throughout the remainder of FY15, there would be a negative year-on-year translation impact of approximately £19 million.

The average and period end exchange rates relevant to the Group for the quarter were as follows:

CURRENT TRADING

Winter 14/15

With the Winter season 85% sold, total tour operator bookings are in line with this time last year with average selling prices down 2%. 

Bookings in our UK business have increased significantly, with volumes 6% higher than at this time last year (and average selling prices 1% lower) as we have expanded our Winter Sun offering to new destinations, including the Caribbean, Cuba and Cape Verde.

Continental Europe bookings are 4% lower than last year, reflecting the discontinuation of unprofitable routes in France and Russia and a later booking profile in Germany. Average selling prices are 3% lower than last year reflecting competitive market conditions. However, the booking trend in the last four weeks has improved significantly.

Northern Europe bookings are 1% below last year, while prices are 3% higher. Our Nordic business continues to perform well in Sweden and Denmark, while demand in Norway has been impacted by wider macroeconomic factors.

Airlines Germany has increased bookings by 9%, with load factors similar to last year. Average selling prices are 2% lower than last year, mainly reflecting overcapacity in the short and medium haul sector.

Summer 15

The Summer 15 season is 41% sold for the Group as whole, 3% higher than this time last year. Total bookings for our tour operator business are 2% lower than last year with a slight decrease in average selling prices.

UK Summer bookings are 5% higher than last year with average selling prices 1% lower. As part of our capacity management for the Summer season, we have increased the level of flight capacity allocated to dynamically packaged products and "seat only" business, reflecting customer demand for more flexible products. In addition, we have successfully launched new sales channels for our airline, including long haul flight destinations such as New York and Miami. This strategy has improved our operational flexibility to meet customer demand while ensuring that in-house flight capacity is managed in the most efficient manner. As a result, although average selling prices in total are 1% lower than last year, Charter Risk pricing has improved by 2%.

In Continental Europe, with 29% of the programme sold, early Summer bookings are 6% lower than last year compared to a strong comparative, particularly in our German business, which has experienced a later booking profile. Average selling prices have been maintained at last year's level.

Northern Europe Summer bookings are 7% lower than last year while average selling prices are unchanged. While our Swedish and Danish source markets continue to perform well, trading in Norway remains challenging due to other macroeconomic factors, such as low consumer confidence, currency weakness and falling oil prices, which have impacted demand.

Over the last four weeks, demand in Germany and Northern Europe has improved, with significantly stronger bookings and firm pricing, confirming the later booking profile.

Airlines Germany continues to perform well in competitive market conditions with Summer bookings 10% higher than last year, improved load factors and average prices maintained at last year's level. As part of our broader strategy, we have expanded Summer capacity in the long haul sector, which has helped mitigate trading pressures caused by continuing market overcapacity in the short and medium haul sector.

PROGRESS IN EXECUTING OUR STRATEGY

Our strategy is to generate sustainable profitable growth by investing in differentiated and exclusive product, improving our digital customer proposition, and driving efficiencies in production and distribution. To measure our progress in successfully executing our strategy, we established in March 2013 a set of key targets and KPIs, which are shown in the following table, together with our progress made towards these targets to date.

Notes: (i) Measured on a last 12 months (LTM) departed basis

(ii) Compound annual growth rate from FY13 to FY15 including new product revenue

(iii) Underlying gross margin, adjusted for disposals and shop closures to make all periods from FY12 - FY15 like-for-like

(iv) Cash conversion ratio is defined as free cash flow after exceptional items and before capital expenditure as a percentage of EBITDA

Product

Our New Product strategy continues to deliver incremental revenues, with a further £44 million being achieved in the quarter, representing growth in the sales of both exclusive Concept and Partnership hotels, and in flexible, dynamic product. This New Product growth, together with a strong performance from Airlines Germany, has contributed to overall like-for-like Revenue growth of 1.6%, compared to a decline of 2.1% for FY14. Whilst it remains unlikely that we will achieve our original Group sales growth target of 3.5% in FY15, having reduced our revenue base in order to focus on profits and in response to geopolitical events, we are nevertheless encouraged by the improved revenue performance in the quarter. We continue to develop product focused on areas where we believe we can gain market share, including exclusive and differentiated hotels, and an expanded winter programme. We have also re-launched Thomas Cook Signature, our premium holiday brand in the UK, and are seeing positive early results. Repositioning and enhancing our core product proposition is a critical part of our strategy, and we continue to explore ways to further accelerate our development in this area.

Omnichannel

Digitising our business remains a key priority, in order to serve customers through multiple channels in an integrated and seamless manner. Our international web platform, OneWeb, is performing well in the UK, with bookings on Thomascook.com up 24% in December alone, and 10% for the quarter as a whole. Since Christmas, mobile and tablet traffic has overtaken desktop traffic, while our overall conversion rate has increased by 20%. We have now also rolled OneWeb out in the Netherlands. However our Group web penetration remained at 38% for the last 12 months, the same level as for the FY14, as the benefits of OneWeb were offset by the removal of certain low value hotel-only sales in the UK. Although it is unlikely that we will achieve 50% by the end of FY15, we believe our web penetration will grow over time as we continue to enhance our digital customer proposition.

Operating efficiencies

The EBIT margin of our UK business has continued to improve, increasing to 3.7% over the last 12 months compared to 2.3% for the 12 months to 31 December 2013, underpinned by the operational improvements we have made. Key to the strong UK performance has been the continued success of our Wave 1 Cost Out and Profit improvement programme, which delivered an incremental saving of £29 million and is on track towards achieving its full year cumulative target of £500 million in benefits. Our underlying gross margin improvement of 1.5%, which we achieved one year earlier than planned in FY14, has been sustained in the quarter, despite sustained competitive pricing conditions. We have made progress towards our cash conversion target of 70%, achieving 53% in the last 12 months, compared to 25% for the 12 months to 31 December 2013.

Our Wave 2 change programme incorporates the initiatives we will take to further reposition the business towards our New Operating Model. This target model aims to leverage our scale and eliminate duplicated activities by creating a set of efficient, common technology platforms and process methodologies across all of our geographical segments. As previously disclosed, the risk-weighted benefits of moving to the New Operating Model through the Wave 2 change programme are £180 million, with target end-state benefits of more than £400 million, and the estimated one-off costs to achieve these benefits are £145 million. It is our practice to update our targets, if appropriate, at our half year and full year results.

APPENDIX

Like-for-like analysis

In implementing the transformation, the Group has undertaken activities that, combined with the normal translational effect of exchange rate movements, impact upon the comparability of underlying performance.

To assist in understanding the impact of these factors and their influence on year on year progression, we consider 'like-for-like' (LFL) adjusted growth from the 3 month period to 31 December 2013 to the 3 month period to 31 December 2014 in our analysis below: