Halifax 9.375bd Regulatory News (HALP)

4 Oct 2007 08:00

HBOS PLC04 October 2007 Halifax House Price Index National Index September 2006 All Houses, All Buyers Index (1983=100) Index (seasonally adjusted) 642.4 Monthly Change -0.6% Annual Change 10.7% Standardised Average Price (seasonally adjusted) £198,500 Key Points • House prices fell by 0.6% in September. Overall, house prices increased by 0.9% in 2007 Quarter 3. This compares with increases of 2.3% in 2007 Quarter 2 and 3.0% in 2007 Quarter 1, marking a continuing steady downward trend in the rate of house price growth since the end of 2006. • A mixed pattern of monthly price rises and falls is a typical feature of a more subdued housing market. For example, there were three monthly falls and three monthly increases during the first half of 2005 when the market slowed following the rapid rises in the preceding few years. • The annual rate fell to 10.7% in September from 11.4% in August. The annual rate should decline further over the next few months as the strong monthly house price gains during the autumn of 2006 drop out of the year-on-year comparisons. • House prices increased in most regions - especially in the south of England - during the third quarter. The biggest price rises were in Greater London (2.3%) and the South East (1.8%). Nonetheless, the gains in Greater London and South East were lower than in the previous few quarters, suggesting that the market is slowing in these parts of the country. • The UK economy is in a strong position. Sound market fundamentals, including high levels of employment and a shortage in the number of properties available for sale will continue to support house prices. Gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1% in 2007 Q2, comfortably above the long-term average rate of 2.5%. The number of people in employment has risen by 132,000 over the past year and is at an historic high. Commenting, Martin Ellis, Chief Economist, said: "House prices fell by 0.6 per cent in September. Overall, prices in Quarter 3were 0.9% higher than in the previous quarter. This compares with increases of2.3% in 2007 Quarter 2 and 3.0% in 2007 Quarter 1, marking a continuing steadydownward trend in the rate of house price growth since the end of 2006. September's price fall is consistent with the normal behaviour of the marketduring a slowdown. A mixed pattern of monthly price rises and falls is atypical feature of a more subdued housing market. The UK economy is in a strong position. Sound market fundamentals, includinghigh levels of employment and a shortage in the number of properties availablefor sale will continue to support house prices." House price growth slows again in Quarter 3..... Overall, house prices increased by 0.9% in 2007 Quarter 3. This compares withincreases of 2.3% in 2007 Quarter 2 and 3.0% in 2007 Quarter 1, marking acontinuing steady downward trend in the rate of house price growth since the endof 2006. .....and market activity also eases Mortgage approvals to fund house purchase fell by 5% in August to 109,000(seasonally adjusted). Approvals were 9% lower than in August 2006. (Source:Bank of England) The level of new buyer interest in purchasing a house fell for the ninthsuccessive month in August, highlighting that potential buyers have become morecautious. (Source: RICS) Sound fundamentals support the housing market A strong economy and healthy labour market will provide a sound underpinning forthe housing market over the coming months. Gross domestic product (GDP)increased at an annual rate of 3.1% in 2007 Q2, comfortably above the long-termaverage rate of 2.5%. (Source: ONS) The number of people in employment has risen by 132,000 over the past year to arecord total of 29.07 million. There was an 84,000 increase in employmentduring the three months to July compared with the preceding three months.(Source: ONS) Continuing supply shortages of both new housebuilding and secondhand propertiesfor sale will also support house prices. Interest rate effect is increasing as borrowers come off very low fixed rates...... The CML estimates that around 1.3 million borrowers took out fixed-ratemortgages in 2005, and a further 1.5 million in 2006. The majority of thesemortgages would have been fixed for two years. A borrower with a £114,000mortgage - the average in 2005 - taken out at the average two year fixed rate in2005 of 5.08%, would be making monthly repayments of £669.02. When the dealexpires this year, the new monthly repayments would be £771.35 - an increase of16% or £102 - assuming that the borrower moves onto the current average two yearfixed rate of 6.58%. The overwhelming majority of borrowers coming off fixed rate deals are expectedto be able to absorb the increase in payments. Most people's earnings will haverisen since they took out their mortgage - average earnings have risen by 8%over the past two years - providing more income to finance the higher interestpayments. House prices have also risen strongly in the past two yearsproviding an equity cushion for new borrowers. The Bank of England recently estimated that the resulting 'payment shock' willreduce the annual post-tax income growth of the household sector by only 0.1percentage points.* Static 'real' income growth in the first half of 2007 is also constraininghousing demand Household disposable income in 2007 Q2 was unchanged from the level in 2006 Q4once the effects of inflation are removed. (Source: ONS) South sees highest price rises in Q3 but signs of slowing in London and theSouth East ...... House prices increased in most regions during 2007 Q3. The biggest price riseswere in Greater London (2.3%) and the South East (1.8%). Despite recording thebiggest price rises in the UK in Quarter 3, the gains in Greater London andSouth East were lower than in the previous few quarters, suggesting that themarket is slowing in this part of the country. Fall in Northern Ireland but this follows phenomenal growth in recent years ...... There were house price falls in Northern Ireland (-3.2%) and the North (-2.1%).The fall in Northern Ireland simply partly offset some of the 8.2% increase inthe previous quarter and must be set against the background of a spectacular 47%rise in house prices in the year to 2007 Quarter 2. The modest decline in theNorth should be seen in the context of the substantial price rise (122%)recorded over the past five years. Slowest house price growth in the past year in northern England and midlands All 12 regions of the UK have recorded a rise in house prices over the pastyear. Five regions have seen double digit growth: Northern Ireland (29.1%),Greater London (18.6%), Scotland (14.2%), the South East (13.7%) and East Anglia(11.1%). The remainder of the country has experienced single digit growth withthe smallest increases in the West Midlands (4.7%) and the North West (5.2%).More generally, northern England and the midlands have seen the lowest houseprice growth in the past year. * Inflation Report, August 2006 NOTE: The 10.7% number is the quarterly year-on-year figure. This figureprovides a much better picture of underlying trends compared to a monthlyyear-on-year number as it smoothes out any short-term fluctuations. The Halifax House Price Index is prepared from information that we believe iscollated with care, but we do not make any statement as to its accuracy orcompleteness. We reserve the right to vary our methodology and to edit ordiscontinue/withdraw this, or any other report. Any use of this report for anindividual's own or third party commercial purposes is done entirely at the riskof the person making such use and solely the responsibility of the person orpersons making such reliance. (c) Bank of Scotland plc all rights reserved2007". This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange