Chesnara Regulatory News (CSN)

19 Nov 2010 07:00

Interim Management Statement Chesnara plc

Interim Management Statement for the period from 1 January 2010 to 18 November 2010

19 November 2010This statement relates primarily to the financial position of Chesnara plc (the'Group') as at 30 September 2010 and to its financial performance during thefirst three quarters of the year. Where events and transactions have occurredsince the end of the third quarter, which are estimated to have a materialimpact on management's core expectation of the financial position and/orfinancial performance of the Group, then these are identified, together with abroad indication of their impact.

EEV

The movement in Group European Embedded Value ('EEV'), since the position lastreported in the interim financial statements for the six months ended 30 June2010, is set out in the following table: Quarter ended Quarter ended Year ended 30 September 30 September 31 December 2010 2009 2009 GBPm GBPm GBPm EEV at beginning of 255.1 178.9 182.7 period Profit arising on acquisition of Swedish Business - 54.7 54.2 Earnings for the period, net of tax - UK Business 10.1 13.2 28.1 - Swedish Business 4.9 4.9 8.7 - Other Group (0.8) (1.3) (0.7) Activities Foreign exchange reserve movement 9.2 8.3 5.5 Dividends paid - - (15.9) ---------- ---------- ---------- EEV at end of period 278.5 258.7 262.6 ---------- ---------- ----------

EEV of GBP278.5m as at 30 September 2010 is stated before appropriation of adividend of GBP5.9m which was paid on 12 October 2010. EEV of GBP258.7m as at30 September 2009 is stated before appropriation of a dividend of GBP5.7m whichwas paid on 12 October 2009.The third quarter result has been significantly impacted by favourableexperience in investment markets. Leading UK equity market indices improved bysome 13% over the quarter and leading Swedish market indices improved by 8-10%.While rates on fixed interest investments continued to drift down during thequarter in the UK they have, by contrast, strengthened in Sweden. Given thedifferent mixes of underlying investment and insurance contracts in the UK andSwedish Businesses these contrasting movements have, in fact, led to beneficialoutcomes in both as set out below.

UK Business

Within the UK Business favourable investment market effects gave rise to pre-tax gains of some GBP8.0m (GBP6.3m net of tax) in the third quarter, arising principally from higher deductions from unit-linked funds, which have increased in value, and through significant increases in the capital value of fixed interest securities which match non-linked funds.

This result has been enhanced by:

(i) continuing favourable mortality and morbidity experience of GBP0.5m (GBP0.4m

net of tax);

(ii) continuing favourable persistency experience of GBP1.9m (GBP1.5m net of tax);

(iii) unwind of the risk discount rate on existing business of GBP1.2m (GBP1.0m net

of tax); and

(iv) new business contribution and expense efficiencies together realising GBP1.2m

(GBP1.0m net of tax).Swedish Business

(all stated amounts are pre-tax, tax effects for the period being immaterial)

Within the Swedish Business favourable investment markets effects gave rise to gains of some GBP6.0m in the quarter, arising principally from the impact of higher investment growth in both equity and fixed interest markets on assumed future earnings from the core pensions and savings business.

This outcome has been enhanced by:

(i) GBP0.8m favourable outturn on risk and health insurance business, underpinned

by the performance of the Aspis business acquired earlier in the year;

(ii) GBP1.6m unwind of the risk discount rate; and

(iii) a new business contribution of GBP0.8m.

On the adverse side, the result has been impacted by:

(i) unfavourable persistency experience of GBP0.8m;

(ii) an expense overrun of GBP1.6m; and

(iii) an unfavourable effect of GBP1.8m arising from the change in the investment mix

in the underlying unit-linked contracts.

The foreign exchange gain of GBP9.2m set out in the table above arises from theeffect of translating the SEK-denominated EEV of the Swedish business into UKpounds sterling which depreciated 9% against the Swedish Krona over the thirdquarter. The subsequent 4% appreciation of sterling against the Swedish Kronais estimated to have reduced this gain by GBP4.1m.

IFRS

The IFRS result arising in the quarter ended 30 September 2010 is set out in the following table:

Quarter ended Quarter ended Year ended 30 September 30 September 31 December 2010 2009 2009 GBPm GBPm GBPm Beginning of the period* Pre-tax 12.0 11.2 - earnings Tax (4.2) (2.9) - ---------- ---------- ---------- Post-tax 7.8 8.3 - earnings ---------- ---------- ---------- Pre-tax earnings arising in the third quarter Profit - 25.6 25.1 arising on acquisition of the Swedish Business UK Business 7.8 9.5 24.7 result Swedish (0.5) (1.4) (2.6) Business result Other group (0.8) (1.3) (2.5) activities ---------- ---------- ---------- 6.5 32.4 44.7 Tax arising (1.8) (1.9) 1.2 in the period ---------- ---------- ---------- Post-tax earnings arising in the period 4.7 30.5 45.9 ---------- ---------- ---------- End of period Pre-tax 18.5 43.6 44.7 earnings Tax (6.0) (4.8) 1.2 ---------- ---------- ---------- Post-tax 12.5 38.8 45.9 earnings ---------- ---------- ----------

* Cumulative earnings position for the first two quarters of 2010

The total IFRS pre-tax result for the third quarter continues to be dominated by the surplus arising within the UK life and pensions business which is in run-off. This was enhanced in the period by favourable investment market effects of GBP1.7m and favourable mortality and morbidity experience of GBP1.6m.

The following key performance indicators relating to the Swedish Business underpin the progress which has been made during the quarter:

Three quarters Three quarters ended ended Year ended 30 September 30 September 31 December 2010 2009 2009 Total premium income* Pensions and 189.0 193.4 257.6 savings Risk insurance 26.8 21.2 26.6 Total GBP215.8m GBP214.6m GBP284.2m New business premium income* Pensions and 36.7 37.3 49.4 savings Risk insurance 7.1 1.0 3.3 ---------- ---------- ---------- Total GBP43.8m GBP38.3m GBP52.7m ---------- ---------- ---------- Quarter ended Quarter ended Year ended 30 September 30 September 31 December 2010 2009 2009 Market share of unit-linked pensions business Total business 3.1% 5.3% 5.7% Company-paid contribution Business 10.3% 9.3% 9.9% 30 September 30 September 31 December 2010 2009 2009 Assets under GBP1156.7m GBP922.3m GBP1015.2m management* ---------- ---------- ----------

* Translated into sterling at a constant rate of SEK10.9 = GBP1

During the quarter, Moderna F¶rs¤kringar Liv AB ('Moderna') has continued toseek to re-establish its sales and market share in Sweden and, consequentupon a refocused sales and marketing approach, has slightly improved its shareof its main target market as can be seen in the table above.Generally thePensions and Savings side of the business has made some ground although it continues, as expected, to generate losses albeit these are at a lowerlevel than the run rate experienced in the first half of 2010. On a positivenote the Risk and Health insurance side of the business has made good groundfollowing the acquisition of Aspis F¶rs¤krings Liv AB ('Aspis') with lower claims ratios than expected. As a result it has contributed GBP0.8m toIFRS profit (matching its contribution on the EV basis).

Solvency

The underlying emergence of surplus in the UK Business, and hence the capacityof the Group to continue to pursue its dividend policy, remains strong. This isreflected in the ratio of regulatory capital resources to regulatory capitalrequirements in the UK life company, which has improved from 263% as at 30 June2010 to 307% as at the end of the third quarter. The Swedish life businesssolvency ratio as at 30 September 2010 is estimated to be 176%, compared with220% as at 30 June 2010. This solvency ratio has reduced over the quarter as aresult of the growth in the Risk and Health business and the associatedincrease in the capital resource requirement. Both the UK and Swedish lifebusinesses continue to have a target ratio of a minimum of 150%. As at thequarter end, the corresponding Group (IGD) position remains strong at 329%compared with 330% as at 30 June 2010.

Market Opportunity

We continue to review a flow of potential acquisition opportunities and will readily progress these where we see value and a clear strategic fit. As regards opportunities, we remain open-minded as to location in the UK and Western Europe and will continue to apply strict financial and risk criteria in assessing them.

EnquiriesGraham Kettleborough Chief Executive, Chesnara plc 07799 407519

Michael Henman, Cubitt Consulting 0207 367 5100

Notes to Editors

Chesnara plc, which listed on the London Stock Exchange in May 2004, is theowner of Countrywide Assured plc ("CA") and Moderna F¶rs¤kringar Liv AB("Moderna"). CA is a UK life assurance subsidiary that is substantially closedto new business. In June 2005 Chesnara acquired a further closed life insurancecompany - City of Westminster Assurance ("CWA") - for GBP47.8m. With effectfrom 30 June 2006, CWA's policies and assets were transferred into CA. Moderna,a life assurance company which focuses on pensions and savings, was acquired on23 July 2009 for GBP20m. The company, which was launched in 2002, continues towrite new business and grow its strong position in the Swedish unit-linkedmarket. Moderna's market presence was increased through the acquisition of acontrolling stake in AkademikerR¥dgivning I Sverige AB, an IFA, in late 2009and the purchase of the policyholders, personnel, intellectual property andsystems of Aspis F¶rs¤krings Liv AB, a life and health insurer, in February2010.