Argent Biopharma - Valuation report

We value Argent at an un-risked net present value (NPV) of US$1.1bn. Adjusting for the company’s specified probabilities of success (PoS) for its three clinical programmes gives a risk-adjusted NPV (rNPV) of US$327m or US$6.7 per share. The highest contribution is from CannEpil (NPV of US$508m, PoS 35%), a Phase II, medical-grade cannabinoid being developed for drug-resistant epilepsy. CimetrA, a plant-derived formulation with preclinical and clinical activity as an anti-inflammatory agent, is the other key contributor. We expect initial therapeutic targets to be acute lung injury and ARDS (NPV of US$239m, PoS 50%). CogniCann, a Phase I asset (cannabinoid) in development for symptoms of dementia, contributes US$416m to the NPV, with a 15...