Member Info for zugzwang

Seems to be some talk that DRDgold are involved in processing this 82,000 ozs pile of waste that they have. That could certainly be big news if confirmed, and likely to be very profitable.

Seems to me very cheap for a profitable debt free company. It doesn't need a lot to go right to double or treble from here.

The RNS was disappointing not because meeting market expectations was bad but because they could potentially have been a lot better if things had gone right.

They need to get Kilimapesa to at least break even. IMV the SP would double if they did that alone.

We were in a position where she had a vested interest in the SP decreasing, which was a concern of mine. IMV the lows have been reached and the corner turned. Presumably that is EK's view as well.

Have you put it to the company regarding the shareholding?

If the results are to be Monday I presume we are going to get a plan of attack from the new CEOs as well as an outlook statement. I presume integration of Redleaf and Newgate means reducing costs and presumably head count. They say the combined Newgate/Redleaf will have 100 employees. IIRC the whole group had 280 or so at last count. Anyone know hoe many are at Newgate/Redleaf presently/

So Steffan is sacked and no customary thanks to him either. Don't suppose it bodes well for the results on Monday but has to be a good move IMV. Hopefully they will get costs under control. The SP moves this morning will be interesting.

The blueprint for PTCM is; 1. Produce a profit 2. Takeover other similar companies using profits and equity 3. Strip out excess costs 4. Increase profits 5. Repeat The question is what the synergy is with SEC and how much cost saving a merger could generate. The relative value of the two companies would be a moot point, though PTCM would be getting back 80m or so of their own shares back.

I would have thought a full merger with SEC is on the cards.

Perhaps Martin Sorrell is joining the board as he seems at a bit of a loose end these days. Wouldn't fancy his salary though.

Results are due late April. We already know some numbers. The gross profit will be �33m and the adj EBITDA �2.5m. There are two problems with PTCM. Firstly the gross profit keeps increasing but there is very little drop down to the bottom line. This year GP is up �3.2m but adj EBITDA is up just �150k. Too much is being absorbed in admin of varying kinds. Secondly there has been a constant stream of exceptionals - restructuring, impairments etc In the interims they seem to have reduced exceptionals but the gross profit/net profit ratio does not seem to be improving. If we could get something positive in the results that costs were under control then ebitda would multiply and the SP would multiply even more and all would be well with the world. We shall see.

The director buy shows confidence in something positive happening, but there have been loads of director buys at much higher prices, let alone their 'incentive' plan. What they need is for revenues to be ahead sharply and then not matched by increases in admin costs or 'exceptionals'. The attributable loss last year was �6.3m which can wholly be accounted for by D&A, exceptionals and impairments. Arguably they could be said to be bumping along the bottom, though I am doubtful as to how exceptional some of these exceptionals are. They have however increased stakes in profitable sections, reduced interest rates and debts so hopefully we may get on the positive side of the equation if they can cut all the leakages. They seem to have plenty of big hitters. They need to start hitting big IMV.

They don't seem to be getting much of a cut from this $41 billion.

They are very cheap, which doesn't mean they won't get cheaper. If the results are anything like though they will be up once out. There is always the possibility of a surprise announcement from one of the irons they have in the fire as well.

I can think of a few things on my wish list but that is a nice start. �164k is clearly not a trivial or nominal buy. The guy expects to make money. Perhaps he knows he will. There is also another 4m buy, assuming it is not another fat finger entry, so perhpas another director buy to come.

Good God; https://www.investegate.co.uk/porta-communications--ptcm-/rns/director-dealing/201801311245234985D/

It would be nice to think some of our esteemed directors have invested some of their ample salaries

Some big buys seem to be going through. Perhaps something is happening at last

It may be we will get an operational update before the interims, possibly tomorrow. There is a long list of things we could be updated on, apart from the production numbers. There is the Rand Refinery settlement, stage 3 at Kili, the Ghana elution column, the artisanal clean up in Ghana, the stock dam and a potential mining acquisition. Hopefully news on some of these.

http://www.alignresearch.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Cradle_Arc_Align_Research_Jan_2018.pdf

An increase in the gold price doesn't go straight to the bottom line. It goes to the bottom line if it is from the Kenyan mine or from its stocks of materials it has bought. However most of the recovery contracts have the payment for material at the gold price when the final product is sold. In addition the important factor is the gold price in the local currency, which is where most of the costs are incurred. The gold price in rand is pretty much unmoved over the year but up 12% in terms of the Kenyan shilling. ISTM though that substantial increases in profit are baked in whatever the gold price does from the investment in Kenya and the just completed investment in Kenya.