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It's is one solution - not that bad but it is not confirmed yet. CVA will allow breathing room and does not mean that the business is folding. It's an arrangement to manage liabilities in agreement with creditors. Ineffciient cinema site will close, lease will renegotiate - this reduces revenue but improves margins over the longer term and cleans up any fat in the business. So Healthier going forward once debt servicing starts again.
Watch this space.
The worse case scenario assumes no control measures and an no vaccine - like in March. BUT we are not in March. We are way ahead and there is cash comingin in now.
Only a fool would take 30 June as a represetation of today's position - and a big fool who preachese others the same.
Indeed - the business will go on. Its just a bad quaretr which is a reasonable expectation if you closed. People shoudl think about Q3 and Q4.
They were closed for most of the quarter and there is no 2nd lockdown announced. Plus Covid vaccine results and rapid testing is around the corner. So let it be volatile today and pick up in a few days.
They will get a waiver for 31 Dec testing imo .
Number of brokers
Strong Buy 3
Buy 1
Hold 4
Sell 2
Strong Sell 0
Average rating Buy
Average target price 94.38p
Source: Reuters
IG client sentiment also supports that view, with 88% of IG clients with open positions on Cineworld currently long and therefore expecting the price to rise, with just 12% short and expecting it to decline.
you guys forgot to mention.....the yanks are coming
Funny how Shamus dissappears when indepthtwins is here...........
VIX also dropped to -1.5% - was at +12-15% earlier
Agreed - once the short attack is over, this will jump quickly to 65 and then towards 70 and those who sell now would be hugely disappointed.
HOLD OR BUY: As Mandalorians would say, "this is the way"
STAY STRONG GUYS - THIS IS JUST THE SHORTERS' BLUFF
If you were a short bluffing (basically manipulating a shares' price) about a company's overvalued share price, you might not want to draw attention to yourself since you could get accused of stock manipulation so you would hope (or plan for) others to get involved and to present seemingly good reasons to short the stock. You would want to put as much fear into longs as possible and would use high volume short trading as well as buying to drive the share price down as low as you can and as long as you can. You really want the longs to fold and to get out of the game. If you are consistently seeing sellers overwhelming buyers driving a share price down as a stock seems to be going up, I can assure you it's probably shorts selling since longs are totally motivated to sell their shares at the highest possible selling price.
on 4) agreed.
AMC, recently sold their Eastern EU cinemas at 9.5x 2020 EBITDA. I presume this would be cash free / debt free since AMC debt would be held at group level.
So an offer would be at that sort of level or may be 10x 2020 EBITDA which means an EV of 850m. On cash free debt free basis this 850m is around market cap. Add on control /strategic premium etc of around 20% - this would still not be enough to sell out when it can hit 100 so I would agree that at the current SP level, a buyout looks difficult. Unless the potential buyer is willing to pay a premium and buy at 90-100 a share. Which is why we can see smaller piece meal stake builds by Jhango.
Any indication of a swap seen anywhere? They are in a good position to restructure debt with some cash now coming in and more normalized in 2021 beyond.
2020 est EBITDA of 850m x 9 would mean debt should be at 7,650m (less any cash collected since opening). Question is if interest payments had been rolled up into the debt during COVID. I think they will either:
1) pass the debt test but with narrow headroom in Dec
2) restructure before then
3) issue an equity swap
4) sell out / take over
Thoughts?
Today
CINE Consensus Rating: Buy
CINE Consensus Rating Score: 2.54
CINE Analyst Ratings:
1 Sell Rating(s)
4 Hold Rating(s)
8 Buy Rating(s)
0 Strong Buy Rating(s)
Consensus Price Target: GBX 245.38
I have negative sentiments - Starbucks changed their coffee beans without telling me and the coffee sucked.
Hope value > Strategic Value > Intrinsic value > Fair market value > Distressed value
Value moves along these and in the end, the SP is what a market will currently fetch. What most of us think right mow is that fair market value should be greater than price. So being Calm or not Calm is irrelevant - its the value gap that matters.
We will open in blue reaching near 70 then it will go down around 10am ish for MMs to smooth and then back up in the afternoon when buys are >3x sell vol. This is how she dances!
Agreed Ian - Series are for streaming. Money Heist and Tenet cannot be compared for the big screen.
Might be worth checking the spreads. The 15 min candlesticks look thick.
When I said "input is quite useful" I wasn't referring to stating the current SP which I can also see on my screens :)
However, it is good to see buy volumes running at 3x sold volumes right now.