Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
I often see references to a Telegram thread for XTR. I am a complete newbie to Telegram but have signed up. Can anyone point me towards a useful thread. Does one have to be invited to take part? Thanks in advance.
Given where we are I would think that your observation is a very positive sign. Who would be bleating into the ether in the middle of one of the most important weeks of your life?
Re-running the now cliched, but still amusing, line ... A (Colin) Bird in the hand is worth two in the Bush(ranger) (or 3 of you include Footrot) ...
I say get on with it. If there is a buyer now at a decent price I say take it and we can all move on. The world needs more copper (more everything really), so a resource is a resource and will always be valuable, but there are significant global risks out there that and kicking the can down the road for another year of drilling could feasibly lead to a 5 or even ten year shelving of the possibility of a sale if another black swan even occurs. And those dark swans seem to be coming at us rather too frequently at the moment. Time to make hay while the sun is still shining.
I think the stark truth is no one knows what is going on, and really, why should we. Its a waiting game in which anything could happen. Those that don't like it are very vocal, but they know where the door is (or should have avoided coming in that door in the first place). Try Bitcoin. At least there is no-one to blame when things are not going the way way you think they should.
Thanks Steve. That filled a little gap in my understanding and confirmed my hunch that there can be, and may well be, things going on between those 'in the know'. Let's hope there is!
Or indeed employees of XTR's PR company, their accountants, any number of external but involved organisations. Companies do not operate in a vacuum. They work with other companies. C'est la vie.
Insider trading? I don't think selling a company, lock stock and barrel, is the same as buying some shares on the cheap if you have insider info that there is news imminent that will send the share price higher.
AA have first refusal. All the other mining companies will have to wait their turn. And there are no PIs competing for the purchase of the entire company (as this is what Colin Bird has said will be sold, not 80% as stated as a lower base in the AA agreement).
Well that is really my underlying question.
Assume you are a technology company and it is public knowledge that you are putting a lot of R&D effort into an amazing new processor, not yet proven. Would you be within your rights to share your progress privately with Apple as you progress to perfecting it? And should you have great success with this goal, demonstrate it to Apple and announce this success publicly on the same day Apple announces it has bought the technology from you, or even your company, to underpin the next 10 years of iPhones?
I hope you can see the parallel. How granular is the announcing of 'market moving information'. When does market moving information become that, and who decides?
Is XTR entitled to keep schtum until their 'preferred buyer' has agreed that what they have is worth buying? I would say that there is rather a lot of precedent for that.
It was thinking of the timescales required to update, or recreate, the conceptual pit model that led me to the previous post.
I have no doubt this model is complicated, but it will be a computerised model and the many inputs will have largely been known for some time. Very little new data (the last of the assays) has had to be waited for.
Therefore my assumption is that the updated conceptual pit model is already completed, the Decision to Mine could be published at any time, but the the 'end of October, early November' comments from Colin Bird are allowing time for discussions with AA.
I am intigued to know what the process is. Is XTR obligated to share the Decision to Mine report with the market concurrently with sharing it with potential buyers (i.e. AA at this stage)? Or can negotiations take place away from public scrutiny? I am wondering if the first we hear of the D2M might be accompanied by an offer (or decline to offer) from AA.
What is the real news? The Decision to Mine? ... which in fact means decision that the mine would be economical to mine, not a statement that the owner (XTR) has decided to go ahead and mine it themselves).
Or is the real news that AA has offered to buy back ProspectOre, and therefore all of its assets, for 'X' amount.
My uninformed 'gut' feeling is that a rerated SP following a public announcement of the D2M would not really influence negotiations as AA will make their own mind up what the asset is worth to them and also what they believe XTR will accept for it.
Similarly I cannot reasonably accept that XTR will wait to publicly annound the D2M and then pick up the phone to enter into talks with AA. Given that AA have this contractual 'first dibs' privilege (I feel this almost puts them in the position of a business partner) I am assuming that there is nothing underhand about sharing all data with them in advance of formerly publishing the D2M.
I don't know if this is the case, but my guess is that representatives of the majority of shares in XTR could sit around a table, so the deal could, and maybe should, be thrashed out in private.
Any thoughts out there?
Please don't bother to elaborate.
The only cash raise that I am interested in involves the impending sale of a world class copper resource.
Googled: AIM Rule 18 requires that AIM companies prepare half-yearly reports within three months of the period end.
I presume this means they are supposed to publish this report within the same time frame. We are not talking about BHP Billiton here. XTR has very few projects and revenue streams to report. It shouldn't be too hard to compile the data?!
Am I correct in thinking that Q2 results need to be announced by RNS by tomorrow (last day of September, 3 months after close of Q2)? If so, why do we have to wait until the absolute last minute? And why can't we get XTR RNS's at 7am, which is the de facto standard, instead of being caught on the hop at some random point in the afternoon (usually).
Thanks for clarifying. $80m is certainly not insignificant.
Although if this was a way of the buyer paying less up front that is still to me less attractive than getting a better one off sale price.
As has been said before, a Bird in the hand is worth two in the Bushranger!
>>> AA might be quicker to decide not to offer <<<
I don't see why AA would walk away from a 25+ year copper resource without even trying.
I mentioned yesterday that I felt the 2MT scenario was possibly included in the deal to benefit XTR, not AA. Even 1MT of copper (still a lot of copper) that can be economically extracted is not to be sneezed at. And as we now know, 'Decision to mine' is a strangely named term that means 'demonstrably economical to mine'.
Are those 'success' payments significant? i.e. in our real interest to draft in to an agreement? The chances are they may have been a negotiated face-saving gesture in order to settle at a lower than hoped for buyout price?
I'm a fan of 'cash on the table' over a 'hope' clause. Such a clause would not be seen as an asset, and I would suggest that the vast proportion of XTR shareholders do not measure their expected time continuing to hold their shares to be inline with any resulting 'success' payout.
This is my take on things (and for the record I want this deal sealed at the earliest opportunity ... onwards and upwards ... !).
My understanding is that the purpose of the AA agreement, from AA's point of view, is that it gives them the uncontested opportunity to buy BR back by offering a decent/acceptable amount of cash. If XTR disputes the value offered then it goes to an independent assessment. This may recommend a higher or indeed lower price. But XTR is not compelled to go ahead with a sale to AA at this independently assessed value either.
By rejecting AA twice in this manner XTR can then take their chances on the wider open market, and I presume AA could continue their interest by participating in competitive bidding.
The general assumption is that the large miners such as AA are in dire need of copper resources to sustain their future in this area. And we are all aware how few new resources are in the pipeline.
Therefore, AA should have a very strong interest in making an attractive offer when they get their uncontested chance. Formulating an 'attractive offer' no doubt entails projecting the value of BR as a resource into the future and not shooting themselves in the foot by quibbling over week by week, month by month present movement in the spot price of copper.
If AA want to capitalise on their 'first mover' advantage they need to make it easy for XTR to accept the offer. And at the same time XTR would appreciate a simple and uncomplicated sale. However, I have no doubt that XTR is prepared to take the sale to the open market if it feels appropriate to do so. For this reason I feel XTR is in a fairly strong position.
Art, I have always puzzled about this strange term 'decision to mine'. as it seems to have no relation to the the explorer's intention to mine it. In most cases they wouldn't have anywhere near enough funds to do that anyway.
I think what it really means: "we've looked into this prospect enough now and it seems viable. No more investigation ... its time time mine it. Anyone want it?"
The alternative of reaching 2MT in the AA agreement may have been a get out for XTR to say "look ... 2MT!! Don't make us spend any more time proving this up please ..."
The general feeling seems to be that after the modelling is done the resource will not meet that 2MT target. However, Colin Bird did in fact say in the podcast that following the completion of the model XTR will announce its decision to mine, thereby triggering AA's opportunity to make an offer to buy the resource back.
Correct me if I am wrong anyone ... but this to me took away a lot of uncertainty. It now seems the case that the model is forthcoming, the decision to mine will come with that, and AA can decide if the size of the resource, and its viability, are worth buying. If they choose not to buy the resource, or if they offer unacceptably little for it, the sale will be open to allcomers. And it is generally considered to be a resource that will be in demand. We no longer have to worry about not meeting the 2MT. less tonnage will still make for an economical prospect. Its just the price achieved that remains to be seen now?
That £50k sale is a big discretionary purchase, especially in a stock that is bumping along the bottom with apparently few cheerleaders banging the drum. It certainly doesn't give the impression of a tentative toe in the water. I take a lot of encouragement from that, especially after CB spoke fairly freely at the weekend.