The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
>>>> "not sure how long they have in the contract to deliberate now Colin's said the decision to mines been made."
I don't think voicing the 'decision to mine' is what gets things going. The DtM is a bit more complex than that, it is confusingly named. The Decision to Mine is a package of data, reports, economic viability studies, etc, and this would have have to all be presented to AA to invoke that clause and get them assessing the asset.
I expect what Colin is saying is that XTR has decided to present this Decision to Mine once compiled fully, as opposed to hitting that other trigger, the 2MT target.
Andrew: "far too many unknows" ... lets hope they are known unknowns. Its the unknown unknowns I worry about!
"Xtract could be seen as nothing more than a play against future copper prices" ... I am taking a long hard look at that to diversify a little. Not without risks, as always, but I'm fairly convinced of the bull case for copper, and it may be more of a cert, or a sooner cert, than returns from XTR. Maybe I will hedge with Cu.
IWTO - well done. you have put into words what I have been thinking and trying to express all day.
Steve's presentation was very smart and sick, which gave it added credibility. It was positively dangerous and had no right of reply prior to its unleashing and was snapped up by nervous investors looking for what they saw as a credible source.
I've seen no hint of acceptance of any responsibility for causing a needless reaction and, as you say, Steve's ok, he waited to sell before posting and trashing the SP.
ReasonMan: "The value of any other supposed asset seems too difficult to quantify with any accuracy."
If that is the case how can anyone ever be expected to put a price on a mining resource. A lot of work is going into this very question I expect, from both sides of the table I would imagine/hope.
JS: " I couldn't get quotes to sell even 250k shares over the past few days"
XTR is a Market Maker only stock and there are always at least 6 of them active. The point of MMs is that they provide liquidity, always. It is what they are contracted to do, So you should always be able to offload at least the NMS (normal market size) which is 50k I think on this stock. If you are getting quotes via a broker like HL, then I would suggest the problem lies with the broker as their auto quote systems query the MMs for best price. If things are not working out doing online quotes it always pays to ring the broker. You probably find quotes readily available that way.
minimum 250k sell is currently offered by all MMs (I did a quick RSP), some offering volumes of 500,000 at various prices down to 2.5. So if people want to sell there is no barrier to that happening.
I stand by what I said. Better to get good or bad news at 7am rather than out of the blue in the middle of the day.
A4444 good to know. But what could be the trigger for a 4 bag rerate?
Looking at where we are today I would suggest that it would have to be a complete curveball, out of the blue, new information.
A4444 ... do you know, or think you know, information that has not been discussed publicly?
What I would like to see, for a number of reasons (and one of them is to portray the allusion of planning and corporate management, is for these RNSs to be issued like everone else's ... at 7am. Why do they always get vomited into the market at 11.34, or 2.57. I can't think of a recent RNS that couldn't have been logged and scheduled for the following morning.
Why is this an issue? We all look at our portfolio in the morning and see if there is any news to react to. Its how it is. With XTR we have to sit around (erroneously) wondering if a few sporadic large sales might mean news is coming.
Can't we just have XTR behaving like a proper listed company?!
I was musing yesterday evening (a nice bottle, like minded company - ie frustrated shareholders - and a log fire to avoid the horrors of 'Children in Need') about Wall Street (the film, Gordon Gekko etc) and thinking how we need people on the ground checking out who is turning up to who's office, arranging resteraunt tables next to bevvied up execs from participating players in our intriguing situation so we can pick up on the gossip, boasts, etc. Then realised all the fun stuff is probably done on Zoom now, not in person.
Re Gixxers last post, we also discussed (e.g.) AA buying ProspectOre along with the core of the exploration team. I imagine they are largely Aussie, and not necessarily wanting to up sticks and go to Mozambique or wherever to follow the next Colin project. Makes sense to stay with the Bushranger project, unless their share options turn out so well they choose a life of barbies on the beach instead.
I haven't relistened, but my question for that is whether a detailed design of an open or underground pit is anything other than including the relevant costs of a likely design in order to demonstrate the economics of mining the resource. I would imagine a buyer would design their own mining operation from the ground up (or more correctly down) having appraised the notional outline open pit and costs? So the level of detail of what XTR would present on the design of a pit would be far from detailed?
In whose interest is it to keep AA's interest (if it exists) from shareholders during such a period. Even a period of negotiations. Its not a competitive situation until after the buy back option has been explored and put aside. So why the radio silence (if indeed this is the case).
I agree entirely. If there are some tasty projects ready for the taking to cement the development of XTR into the future then there is a clear way to become in a position to take advantage of them. ie complete the sale of Bushranger and retain some of the proceeds. That is how a business is supposed to work: make profits, invest some of the profits, end result bigger and more successful operation for the future.
If I saw a sale of Bushranger with all proceeds handed away to shareholders leaving the company strapped for development cash and then asking shareholders for money back in the form of a diluting raise I would wonder whether any strategic thinking was taking place and likely make my exit..
"I would like to think CB can't talk too much about Xtract as there are lots going on in the background re buy-outs."
one of the producers of that podcast did mention elsewhere earlier, having just finished the recording, that "things are happening ... but he can't say much, so ... hold your horses"
read into that what you will.
"Yeah ok... that interview does actually makes me think he still has no clue what to do and that news is not as close as we hope.... Any other thoughts?"
Are you asking if you have any other thoughts? I doubt it. So your takeaway from the midweek takeaway is that Colin Bird is clueless?
"more than 20% ABOVE the asking price"
Value is not a subjective and is, ultimately, what someone is prepared to pay for something.
In XTR's case the contractual independent assessor might skew this by ignoring factors that might increase the value to any particular bidder in a price war. A recent example of this that I have come across is a friend's house being 'valued' by a surveyor for divorce settlement purposes, ignoring the crazy housing market where properties were flying off the shelves for more than 20% of the asking price.
An independent assessor is going to try to be very careful not to undervalue or overvalue.
Maybe AA could stump up the price specified by the 2nd independent assessment, then flip the asset on the open market to the highest bidder. I wonder if there is a safeguard against that!!
And for that reason I wouldn't want to be out of this over the weekend ...!
There, said it!
I bed & ISA'd my wife's holding a few weeks back. I ISA'd at 3.4 but held off the Bed bit as I thought I would sell that lot as we rose a few tenths. Cash positive move. So she has enjoyed double her original holding underwater for an uncomfortably long time.
If we get a nice move up soon we can enjoy the luxury of the original shares appreciating with a stop loss above her originally planned exit price.
As I said to her ... you wouldn't want to be out of this ...
Copper inventories are down to a matter of days. I sippose that can only go down to zero, unless you start to factor in a waiting period for delivery. Demand is growing on a macro level. Whatever the short term lag from China's slowdown in manufacturing and housebuilding will be sw2allowed up in the medium term from worldwide green demand.
Copper producers are running low on copper producing mines. And new ones have a 10 year lead in to production.
I predict we will see an increasing disconnect between 'today's' PoC and what a producer will pay for a new asset. The producers can't afford to wait 2 years for the owner of an asset to sell as the price of copper is not higher enough yet, or because the producer cannot justify the buy price for the same reason. Producers need to get assets on board now to fill their production vacuum in ten years time.
The old way or pricing an asset will change, and soon if not now, and producers will be looking at the future value.
Has there been much competition for assets in the past? My feeling is producers will have to compete for their future survival.
I'm devastated. My wife caught me looking at that video.