Stephan Bernstein, CEO of GreenRoc, details the PFS results for the new graphite processing plant. Watch the video here.
The risk for holders was always the possibility that the DD on JV would decide against signing…the news is that that has happened…the next issue becomes is there anything of value to discover…time will tell but I am happy to trust AA expertise and long held knowledge on these locations…an additional risk was dilution of shareholder value due to new issues to fund exploration…all covered by AA….so really it becomes a waiting game…my view remains such patience will eventually be rewarded many times over. GLA
My take on yesterday’s investor call….a tired team attempted to pump up some enthusiasm for what was really a further extension to the previous extension…maybe with some positives regarding progress…nothing frightening if you like ARCM (I am in buying more today)….but message theme remains “investors must be patient” - drilling will happen once DD completed (nothing new) and the game changer will be a discovery (who knew?). Liked (maybe naïvely) the back of a *** packet calculations that our stake in new venture could be between £500 million and £2billion and the repeated statement that we were once at 8p prior to this JV and are a stronger proposition today than then. We will continue to be traded up and down over coming weeks until a more solid RNS that all DD is now completed. I heard nothing to make me seek an exit and was happy to (hopefully) top up on a dip. GLA.
Motor manufacturers beginning to see need to enter copper supply chain to secure future pipeline of scarce resources for their proposed hikes in EV production.
https://t.co/13yk0Mtwz8
Oil up...FTSE up...I would expect to close above .50 today. Further news from OPEC on continued cuts past August potentially needed to maintain momentum towards 55.
Had planned on trading the volatility for a bit...but upcoming news may be good and place extra risk of being out at wrong time.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/amp/news/916178
Very strong start to week...expectations of debt reduction? Strong earnings from Catcher production? OP support? Geopolitical worries re Iran? Vz supply fall off? Strong global demand? Or all of the above?
Confirmed my view that I am in the right company that is improving its own position re debt reduction whilst increasing production whilst the geopolitical situation supports the narrative of tight supply in face of strong/growing demand. Rare that ahead of time you can position yourself to exploit such a clear trend ahead of time and then sit back whilst the key actors (OPEC non OPEC Vz and Iran and Trump) make it happen for you. My opinion is oil will rise and to an extent the tide will lift all boats (oilers) but it remains a better strategy to pick a decent seat ahead of the crowd to better enjoy the ride. LTH GLA
It was Buffet I think who said “in short term market is a voting machine...in long term a weighing machine” the SP does not reflect our true weight and some voters have interest in manipulating short term view... but weight will eventually drop on their toes and leave them limping badly. Good luck LTH
Cheers Seer was very tempted by “gusher” headlines and 1p to 2p rise but as you say other fundamentals also need consideration. Happy to stick to PMO fundamentals as I understand their reason for future growth. Market just needs to see the debt reducing over time, which no doubt is BOD aim going forward. POO and increasing production all support growth story. GLA
Hi Seer agree with your comments on PMO and interested on more detail as to why you feel Ukog’s rise and fall back was once in 50 years. Some here have seen PMO rise from 20p to £1 Back to 40 back to £1 back to 60 and upto £1.30 and back to £1.00 and back to £1.28 and down a little at this time. I have PMO for long term hold as I like fundamentals you refer too. Not really researched UKOG but liked the headline news and its recent rise from 1p to 2p....why no further?
Nothing Trump has said of late will lead to 5% drop in PMO...his statements to Saudis are based on fear of shortages of supply. The more he calls upon the Saudis to increase supply now leaves less capacity remaining as a safety net to meet continued growing global demand. We are beyond balanced and slipping into under supplied conditions in a very tight market. Shale bottlenecks and lack of capex in some countries as well as fall off in Vz and soon Iranians sanctions will impact hitting hard. This is all very bullish for rising oil. Rising oil will lift us all short term but aim of Saudis must remain avoiding too high a spike that risks choking off the global growth engines of China and India whose demand has lead to rise in first place. Even the Iranians know this. Chances are they put their sanction hit production into storage and await the world beating a path to their door once more as oil hits $100.
The trend is your friend and trend for POO is that market is recognising that OPEC agreement “aim to supply “ is heavily dependent upon Saudis and Russians filling the rapidly developing gap in VZ and now Iran and they will struggle to ramp up in time and in doing so now use up final spare capacity held in reserve to meet growing global demand. All it takes is a supply side shock outage anywhere and we have no capacity (shale has reached infrastructure bottleneck limits for now) to meet the already tight market conditions. Spike on the horizon. Not good long term but you certainly can’t short oil right now.
Oil spike ahead. This is reminiscent of the time in The Long Short when Wall Street guru Michael Burry realises a number of subprime loans are in danger of defaulting and bets against housing by throwing more than a billion $ of his investors money into credit default swaps. The point we are at now with loss of Vz and Iran whilst Saudis and Russia fail to compensate is equivalent to when the default rates in NINJA mortgages contained within the CTOs started hitting double figures but financial institutions carried on regardless. Vz and Iranian production loss will not be balanced by Russia and Saudis in time to slow upward direction- all it takes is unexpected supply disruption and oil will Spike to $90-100. Question then is can increase in production be brought in before high oil damages global growth prospects. Fingers crossed Saudis and Russia can maintain Goldilocks of $70-80 oil in face of Trumps relentless pursuit of Iranian sanctions whilst Vz continues to trend lower.
In future weeks such an entry point will appear a genius bargain and they’ll all get promoted.
It is all about June 22. Neither OPEC nor Russia wish to undo 18 months of hard partnership by rushing to turn on taps. Russian finance minister highlighted the importance of oil to economy of Russia whilst oil minister maintained his negotiating stance much better than conservatives have done regarding their Brexit negotiations by stating Russia can accept $60 oil or less...but key fact is neither Russia nor OPEC wish to walk away from a successful partnership that has worked to rebalance the global market whilst taking price of oil from $26 in January 2016 to $76 now... massive change in contributions to both. Saudis within OPEC need to maintain to ensure successful Aramco IPO.... even yo yoing back to $50 before rising up to $80 damages market valuations of Aramco IPO and so gives Russia upper hand in negotiations over ensuring its gets upto 300k slice of the total 500k rise they will announce. My range for increase not less than 500k not more than 850k with 600k 650k being my tight range. The market will accept this as positive (not being a million or 1.8 demanded by Trump) OPEC will indicate that they are ready to increase further if required... such as due to loss of Vz .... this news for pmo combined with catcher combined with potential for debt repayments and further new production via zama and sea lion make pmo’s rise to £1:50 my short term target. DYOR GLA
The tracker funds now appearing on the roll call will continue to buy on the dips as we approach FTSE 250 potentially putting a floor under SP in run up to 18th and official entry.
I’d agree that OPEC as a whole and Saudis in particular know that any announcement indicating a willingness to pump above 500k will put significant pressure on oil downwards and undue what it has taken 18 difficult months to achieve hence this will not be the Saudis aim prior to Aramco IPO. However diplomatically they are on hook to US in terms of their agreement over Iran sanctions and will need a token rise ( pref in line with lost VZ and Iranian supply to keep market from over heating also an aim).
Bloomberg Article states 18 out of 31 analysts think OPEC will raise. . . . Predictions for the scale of increase ranged from about 180,000 barrels a day to as much as 1 million barrels. While OPEC and its partners agreed a total cut of 1.8 million barrels a day, unplanned losses in Venezuela mean the actual reduction is about 2.4 million, data from the International Energy Agency shows. Among the survey respondents who didn’t expect there would be an agreement to increase at the meeting, most said that the Saudis and Russia would go ahead and raise supplies regardless. Individual responses to the survey were anonymous. As the output cuts are bigger than intended, the producers would only need to announce full compliance with their overall target to advertise that supplies will rise. “Our best guess is currently that there will be no formal decision to change the production target, but a rather a type of agreement or understanding that compliance will be relaxed,” said Johannes Benigni, chairman of JBC Energy Group in Singapore.