Member Info for ZENGAS

Thanks Kalahari, appreciated.

Older - the comparative is in that post and includes the November 2017 i3e North Sea presentation (page 7) that I provided. Also includes the 2017 Verus and Delek buy out of Wytch farm and Ithaca buy out (Some i3e people were at Ithaca). Ithaca $16.59 per 2P boe and $61,902/flowing boe. Wytch $18.46 per 2P boe and $55,000/flowing boe. $1.24b (incl debt) 2017 takeover of Ithaca considered on the low side. https://www.ft.com/content/03552256-ec50-11e6-930f-061b01e23655 A �400m ($560m) similar deal using a lesser $15/boe would imply needing 37m boe 2P. On a flowing basis using $55k per boe implies production of 10,200 boe/day. PMG currently has 46.3 mmboe 2P and a further 73.9 mmboe 2C giving a potential 2P reserve target of 120 mmboe compared to 37 mmboe 2P for the above valuation target which is under one third of their overall current 2P/2C. Plenty of room to farm out/additional upside and allowing any debt needs. �4 conservative target on that basis. Ithacas takeover was also considered cheap in earlier 2017.

Not only production growth but reserves growth very much expected. " Our business is not dependent on finding oil - we know the oil is there ". " Of the 208 net drilling locations identified, 64 are proved locations (P1), 58 are probable locations (P2) and the remaining are unbooked locations ". In 2017, they drilled 4 new wells and 20 recompletions. P2 reserves went up (after production) by a net 18% to 18.55 mmbls by finding greater net pay. This year 10 new wells and 24 recompletions. If on the same basis as last year (and before any exploration drilling) we could see reserves get to around 22 mmbls imo. CEO on the last reserves report in March - "With 208 drilling locations identified by Management and only 90 locations booked in the report, the team remains conservative on the potential upside of the asset base. Looking for 4-5k bopd future target range as drilling ramps up and circa 40 mmbo+ reserves. Not only if you increase production but if you add separately and conservatively a further 10-15mmbo P2, the reserves alone more than dwarf some folks issues re the financing facility.

"The first five wells of 2018 have been successfully drilled. With the promising net pay indicated on the logs, we expect to have the potential for significant production coming on stream as the wells are completed." Highest bopd figure so far = 1772 bopd and significant production expected to come on stream. PS-602 on stream at 50 bopd and are going to perforate an additional 50% net pay. FR-1792 157ft net pay - only put on production 4 days ago from 20ft and rates to be given once stabilised. FR-1793 194ft net pay to be on production in next 7 days. CO-370 227 ft net pay with 121 ft in the Cruse formation. CO-371 405 ft net pay with 280 ft in the Cruse formation. As a guide CO-368 was producing 52 bopd average for the first 262 days from 41 ft of Cruse pay. CO-369 was producing 188 bopd over 262 days from 71ft Cruse pay. Added pump to CO-369 and then upped to 196 bopd on 14th March - hence as PB says "potential for significant production to come on stream" - shortly in terms of CO-370/371 wells alone imo - much greater pay in the new wells. In addition, they are now going back to drill 2 follow up wells to C0-368 and 369 (possible 200+ bopd combined possiblility alone for these two imminent upcoming wells). Given the much lower number of wells drilled last year and the increased net pays which gave an 18% increase in P2 after production, i'm expecting a further increase in reserves again.

Surprised more haven't realised how cheap this is. �53.5m m/cap. �22m cash allowing for current half year. �5.4m value of stock in Faroe = �27.4m. No debt. Attributed valuation just �26m despite having �8m+ revenue and profitable. 46.3 mmboe P2 and 73.9 mmboe 2C = 120mmboe potential reserves. Worth comparing to I3E this am at 11.7 mmboe 2P and a m/cap at 79.5p of �29m and cash under �3m and waiting on funding to develop their field and possible winning of a 2nd field in the 30th licencing round. Based on 11 mmbls ($93m) rising to 33 mmbls on a 2nd field ($279m) rising to $579m (�400m) valuation target and first oil of 9.2k bopd. In addition they may be giving up a third of this in exchange for funding. https://i3.energy/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/20171108-i3-Corporate-Presentation.pdf (Page 7) Oil price has risen substantially since that presentation. By value comparison and given PMGs situation, reserves, production and cash, a reasonable �4 target is my goal.

Wells to completion are an average $5.8m. There is the possibility of $155m in additional funds from the warrants and the possible strategic investor. In the absence of a farm out - could some of that money be directed to Niger or could as we are told a further acquisition be made which increases the free cash generation ? Free cash flow rising next year to $100m/yr from the 2 fields. There's every possibility that this figure could be doubled via acquisition(s). It will take 2 rigs to drill circa 20 wells year ie $ 60m half year/$120m full year. Given we have substantial reserves we could also get a RBL facility in tandem with cash flow or warrants/strategic investor. No shortage of options imo.

Kosmos Energy recently bought 45 mmbo 2P/2C and 13,500 bopd production for $240m in Guinea and expected it to give them an additional $120m net cash flow per year. Today Ophir Energy announced it's intention to buy 21.2 mmboe 2P reserves and and 13,500 boepd which will give them an expected free additional cash of $90m/yr for a cost of $205m. Re new funds - Potential $155m via warrants & Strategic partner. If a Niger farmout - how much up front cash/back payment element? Over next 18 months free cash rising to $100m yr. I would think potential exists for further $100m debt. Similar sized deal to Ophir or KOS could land a further 12-15,000 boepd for circa $200m cost and double free cash to around $200m per year in the process for Savp (and in turn what do you do with that cash flow as to increasing more value?)

�I would expect us to retain at least 50 percent,� Knott told Reuters, adding the deal would probably consist of an upfront cash payment for back costs as well as money to cover future spending". "Savannah is also looking to buy assets in bilateral deals in Nigeria that are producing or can easily be put into production, he added." Oil price is a lot brighter than 18 months ago. Maybe the strategy would be to use farm out cash and buy more producing assets in turn bringing in more free cash. With the strategic partnership and the warrants that could add around $155m of new money on it's own if it all comes in. If Niger was for x amount of wells upfront (CPR has them at $5.8m each completed) then might be little to no drain from the $100m/yr free cash generation in 18 months time. 9 months left on the warrants and with them intending to pay a dividend i would think many would take the decision to exericse them and recieve the dividend.

Farm in offers ? AK said last week they'd been getting phone calls about Niger on the back of that 1st prospect result.

Nigeria current acquisition - 92 mmboe 2P, 44 mmboe 2C. 85 mmboe exploration upside. Forecast free cash $100m/yr in just over 18 months time. I expect further acquisitions/partnerships (which is the stated goal) and may bring us within reach of 50,000 boepd as well as adding further reserves and may bring us over the 200 mmboe P2 reserve line (separate to Niger). Current 7e asset production set to grow to nearer 30,000 boepd. Expect some possible debt on top of the free cash flow generation. Hopefully possible to double yearly free cash to nearer $200m with anticipated additional acquisitions. Of significance - Still waiting to hear on the strategic partnership re $30m being introduced by Asma partners and who have the option to put in a further $60m within 2 years. Warrants at 35p have 9.5 months to run and could bring in a further $65m. Therefore approx up to $155m of new money in the wings all at 35p which would bring the shares up to 1140m if all exercised. This could finance a significant asset(s) along with any debt and on top of a forecast $100m/yr free cash coming in. This is how i could see us giving off closer to $200m/yr free cash with patience. We may retain all upside on Niger and a target of 2.8 billion bls. With Niger/Nigeria i could see us getting to a combined 1 billion bls and using $4/boe (�1/$1.40) over 1140m shares = possible �2.50/share target based only on reserves. Haven't included what our Accugas interest might be worth. Niger very possibly self financing from Nigeria ops given low cost of batch drilling. Circa $200m to first Niger oil (which includes current drilling) and could add another initial 10k bopd via trucking in circa 2 years. CGG re Niger Dec2017: "A phased approach to drilling (�batch drilling�) is also planned by Savannah. Batch drilling saves time, when there is a relatively large number of similar wells to drill. The phased �batch� approach to drilling is expected to proceed as follows: Phase I: Use a full-size drilling rig. Perform main drilling of a �batch� of wells to full depth, wireline log, take sidewall cores and sample as required, and then suspend for later re-entry (if not dry). Phase II: Use a smaller dedicated testing rig to perform wellbore clean-up and well test as required on a �batch� of wells. Phase III: Use a smaller work-over rig to complete a batch of wells, ready for production. On this basis, production wells are estimated to cost $5.8m. All wells will be subject to wireline logging, with 70% tested using Drill Stem Testing (DST). All successful exploration and appraisal wells are assumed to be re-used as producers".

How do you know a combined 10m is not a significant discovery ? Would 15m be better ? What about lateral extent rather than just net thickness alone - ones not much good without the other. What about porosity, permeability,saturation etc in determining what will flow from the OIP ? You could have 15m net pay and get 20% recoverability or 10m and get 30%+ recoverable of the OIP. They've found what is consistent in other discoveries. Getting a first discovery with their first well is excellent especially in terms of short drilling time and low cost. All about multiplying the numbers and was never about being a one shot wonder in terms of risk. What is not surprising is scores of similar low risk prospects that the market will wake up to. As for deferring testing, that was always to be the case from the outset and isn't anything that anyone wasn't aware of pre drill.

http://www.savannah-petroleum.com/en/gallery.php

Excellent result on a first well to announce a discovery. Target depth 16 days/25 days completion so should see decent savings. I don't care if it's 10 or 50 mmbo, just build the barrels from scores of low risk opportunities in the Sokor Alternances and hopefully on our way to the first 1 billion bls. As they say, they are "not seeking to re-invent the wheel" just 'aggregate' what they believe is there - so off to a very good start.

Expected net free cash to the company this financial year is $58.9m of which they intend to pay a $12.5m dividend. Next year the free cash is expected at $78.5m, then $97.7m in 2020 and $102.7m per year after. The oil is based on $60/b. We will be predominantly a gas producer once effected. Net production had grown to 20,700 boepd net of which circa 700 bopd was oil. By the looks it a further net possible 2,000 bopd of net oil to come on stream by Q4. Looking at the update in Feb re Uquo oil and Stubb Creek oil - we get circa 700 bopd from both fields. Near term operational plans was to complete the Uquo-9 oil well (which was drilled in 2014) and a 11km pipeline to deliver 1800 bopd. (I think we may get all the 1800 bopd for now under the current terms). "The Uquo NE discovery well, Uquo-9, is currently suspended, but is planned to be completed as an oil producer in the D1.6 sand during 2018. Over 7 MMstb of 2P Reserves have been assigned to the Uquo NE area in the D1.6 sand, with a upside potential designated as Contingent Resources in the deeper D7.0 sand, which will require additional drilling." "It is anticipated that in 2018 that the existing Stubb Creek EPF will be debottlenecked, to increase oil production capacity to c.5 kbopd (against current gross production of 2760 bopd). "Production is expected to increase to 4,650 bopd by Q4 2018" "Seven Energy is currently forecasting the debottlenecking to be complete by September 2018, including the drilling of a second water injection well."

phnom - "Not entirely sure what this has got to with Savp". Nobody said it has got anything to do with Savp, but if you would see in the example instead of completely missing the point and that other companies do not always perform over the same drill time instead of thinking Savp is somehow 'bizarre' as you call it. Look at the drill news, share price performance and volume on Sou and it was a high interest stock, regular presentations and the share price did nothing between spud and first flow test - that's the point. Instead you think the situation is bizarre? Bizarre for who? Unless you've been fortunate enough to invest in a stock that has always moved pre drill and never experieced those that haven't, then your lucky. It must have been bizarre at Sou and also now at Kosmos who listed in the UK at 550p in August 2017 - briefly went to 650p and was recently down to 440p (now 460p) and at a fair discount below it's litsing price. M/cap is �1.7b. Yet they added reserves and production since that August listing and in that time the oil price has risen over 30%. "2017 was a year of strong operational and strategic delivery," said Andrew G. Inglis, chairman and chief executive officer. "We delivered more than $300 million in net cash flow which was used to diversify our production base and create another source of growth through the acquisition of assets offshore Equatorial Guinea, and reduce our net debt. Year-End 2017 Reserves The Company's proved net reserves at the end of 2017 were 110 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBoe), including 89 MMBoe of net reserves in Ghana and 21 MMBoe of reserves in Equatorial Guinea".

There wasn't any significant change to SOUs share price at all between spud and 1st flow success 3 months later. Some of you are adding 2+2 to get 5 for reasons why the s/p isn't moving as quick as you'd like it. 21 April 2016 (15.75p. 506m shares = �80m m/cap). With the rig-up completed on 15 April, the well was spud on 20 April 2016. Drilling is expected to reach a total measured depth of 2640 metres with the drilling programme anticipated to include coring, logging, completion and testing. Company looks forward to updating shareholders on the achievement of each of the three casing points and achievement of TD. The final results of the well will be announced after the end of drilling and testing operations. 2 June 2016 (16.75p = �85m m/cap).Pleased to announce that the first Tendrara well has now been drilled to total depth ("TD") at a measured vertical depth ("MVD") of 2,665 metres. The 4 1/2" tubing is now being set in preparation for testing the well. The Company identified significant gas shows whilst drilling the reservoir and the full set of acquired logs will be now processed. The Company confirms that a total gross pay of 89 metres has been identified. 20 June 2016 (16.9p. 509m shares = m/cap �86m + bonds out).The processing of the logs while drilling and wire line logs at the first Tendrara well has now been completed. The preliminary petrophysical analysis confirms the presence of a number of gas bearing levels and a total net pay of 28 metres in the TAGI reservoir. This is ahead of initial expectations. A further announcement will be made following the completion of operations and when the results of the well test are confirmed. 11 July 2016 (28.65p = �121m m/cap). After completing the initial perforation of 5 metres of the 28 metres of net pay (between 2,601 and 2,606 metres) the well achieved a stable flow rate of 1.36 MMscf/d 18 July 2016 (35.5p. 527m shares = �187m m/cap).The Company continues with rigless operations and, having now secured contact with a significant portion of the net pay, is pleased to announce that it has already achieved a very significant gas flow rate which is in the process of stabilising during the clean up process. 8 August 2016 (63.9p = �365m m/cap).Sound Energy, the European / Mediterranean focused upstream gas company, is pleased to confirm a significant gas discovery The Company has now completed operations and is delighted to announce that it has on 7 August 2016 achieved a stabilized gas flow rate, post stimulation, of 17.0 MMscf/d Another month before hitting its all time high of 103p now back at sub 50p.

Thanks to Mr T over on Advf-n Deloitte has issued a report that says upstream O&G share prices in general have underperformed since Jan 17: �The stock prices of 73 percent of upstream companies worldwide has failed to grow in line with oil prices since January 2017. Even companies in some of the most promising resources and markets�for instance, the Permian in the United States reported an average shareholder return of -14 percent as against a 25 percent gain in oil price.� https://www2.deloitte.com/insights/us/en/industry/oil-and-gas/portfolio-optimization-energy-companies-upstream-diversification-index.html

From what i see we only have figures for the Upper Sokor and the Sokor Alternances. We may/may not be in the window for the Madama and Yogou targets and definitely not the Donga (see previous post) as we drill to just over 2100m. The potential could be more but for now dealing with the two targets indicated where figures were provided. From CCG in the relist document Dec 2017 - 1. Upper Sokor Formation (secondary target at circa 1200m) This represents a potentially important new play in the basin, and so has warranted particular scrutiny. This new play is supported by seismic, hydrocarbon shows and well testing. Consequently, the Upper Sokor is underrepresented in the existing well data sets, so estimation of resource potential at this level cannot be determined directly from the existing exploration statistics. 2. Sokor Alternances Formation (primary target at circa 1600m) This play has been extensively drilled within the retained acreage of the Agadem Rift Basin, and the discovery data mostly reflect the success of this play. 3. Madama Formation The Madama Formation is present in all wells drilled to that depth across the basin. In many fault blocks, the Madama Formation may carry attic oil trapped against shales in the Lower Sokor Alternances. CGG thus views the Madama Formation as a potential subject of prospective resource volume upside. 4. Yogou Formation (mainly fault seal trap risk) Review of the available log profiles suggests that multiple reservoir-seal couplets are present in the Yogou, and as long as there are on average four or more of these, then the numbers of separate accumulations at Yogou and Eocene Sokor Alternances levels can be expected to be similar. The reduction in numbers of faults with depth suggests that the size of individual fault block traps will be greater at Yogou than at Eocene levels. Recently, testing of the Upper Cretaceous Yogou reservoirs has proven productive, giving similar, or better, flow rates than in the Eocene section. 5. Lower Yogou and Donga Formation In some parts of Savannah�s acreage these intervals are found at depths that are relatively easily drillable. Savannah has only recently evaluated the play potential in this stratigraphic interval, following on from its detailed investigations of the Upper Yogou prospectivity. For this reason, Savannah has not yet interpreted the interval to the level where prospects and leads can be added to its proprietary exploration portfolio.

Maybe some think it's not big enough? Maybe thinking they have to wait a longer time for any well testing hence little buying - ie bringing in a dedicated cheaper rig after drilling/logging finishes. But - "The Company intends to announce the final well results after the end of drilling and logging operations". Given the high number of successful wells to date, they should know what they have prior to well testing if warranted. The 3 wells could be targetting a lot more than the figures given. From what i see we only have figures for the Upper Sokor and the Sokor Alternances. We may/may not be in the window for the Madama and Yogou targets (see earlier post) as we drill to just over 2100m. The potential could be more but for now dealing with the two targets indicated where figures were provided.

About 150+ miles away to the northwest but positive in that another major other than CNPC could have an impact on developing Nigers' oil. I believe that's their first well so would be followed by appraisal if significant at this stage ? Feb 13 2018 Algeria-The Algerian oil company Sonatrach made a major discovery of hydrocarbons in Niger, revealed Monday, its Chairman Director-General (Pdg), Adelmoumen Ould Kaddour. Speaking during a press briefing, at the end of his working and inspection visit to the region, Mr. Ould Kaddour reported "very positive signs recorded over the past few days new discovery of hydrocarbons, made by Sonatrach, in Niger ". Reports the radio site. "We drilled and we found, but for the moment it is not yet an economic discovery, because it takes a whole phase of evolution, despite that, the first fruits and the indices are very positive ", He said. http://fennecnews.tk/economy/sonatrach-makes-a-new-discovery-of-hydrocarbons-in-niger/