Member Info for Zebra04

Ridiculously low mcap for what we have going on. If you're not willing to hold then what's the point?

Great news, far less co2 required to reach targets production increases. Lowering costs and making project more attractive

No they're not dependent on each other.
Morroco delay will be to arrange follow up drill partnership.

Edit: no lasting changes to Irish landscape.

I agree nico. The article and the energy minister always clarify it's fracked gas which is the deal breaker.

Gas is required, our proposal is the least destructive from an environmental standpoint. FSRU linked to existing unused kinsale pipeline.

From the greens perspective it also the simplest to decommission. Eventually many years from now when renewables or whatever takes over, the fsru can sail away and the kinsale pipe decommissioned. To lasting changes to Irish landscape.

Slowly the fracked projects get ruled out. Our fsru project caught me by surprise. Paul may very well have nailed this. His Irish background and experience in the sector has helped for sure.

Many here will complain about the lack of news. The longer term holders have all been there. You do get used to it when you realise our bod is about substance. They won't promote themselves and will just focus on getting on with the job. Ultimately that is to create shareholder value, as they're the largest beneficiaries.

There's seems to be morevout of hours off book trades.

Some trades during the day as well are off book and priced different to the current buy and sell price. The 250k trades at 3.9 and a large delayed reported £72k trade at 3.94

The grievences that made u follow GRH here.

@sound
I appreictae the concern but we're all adults here. Many have been invested here before GRH did.

Its unfortunate how things turned out for sound shareholders. Your grevience should be directed at the board not GRH.

The displayed price is incorrect. Should be showing 4p. Good to see a few buys over 4p. Still bargain prices considering the nav potential.

@nico it's nice to see you looking out for your daughters.

I am many years from retiring. Sale of morrocon asset could be life changing. With only 240mil shares in issue, only £240mil is required to pay a £1 special dividend. A 7 figure return for many here.

Afternoon.

@sam Trinidad would still be too early to divest. I suspect JV is the only way. We own 75% of the license, we can give away a percentage to fund the subsequent drills. We would lose a percentage of the asset sale value at the end but it's better than issuing more shares. We could give away 10% to a JV partner and then sell to a major when de-risked.

The nav for 474 BCF is $831million.
With the addition of the new target the best estimate is now 819bcf.

The new nav would be $1.435 billion.
Which is a share price of £4.42. Should have a new cpr soon to confirm.

This is just the first tier targets in the license area.

Unlike sdx the targets are much bigger and so less capital intensive. No need to keep drilling to replenish.

I suspect Paul is trying to arrange an agreement with a jv partner to fund the drilling of mou-4, if mou-1 is a success.

@nevermind those figures are based on mou-1 prospect. There's now also the mou-4 target which has a best estimate of 1tcf.

Paul did say we get first dibs on the rig. So we should be few weeks before sdx

I agree with chancers. Around the 3.5-3.9p range and they will be getting out to go trade another stock. As long as buyers remain in this range we will be getting through them.

For myself and other lths the crash gave us a chance to pick up shares for silly low prices so we maintained our percentage ownership post placing. I own 0.42% of the company at 3.5p. Other lths here own much more. The company directors own 25%.

Afternoon black dog.

We don't have any institutions invested here. The mcap is too small for institutions to invest. I think its 50 or 100mil that is necessary before institutions will take a look.

Whether it's an institution or personal investor, if they own a certain percentage of the company they have to declare a tr1. Previously when Arato would convert the loan note we didn't recieve any tr1s. Which meant they dumped them instead of holding.

So there is no way of knowing when those 4p shares are cleared for sure. How many decide to not sell and hold we have no idea. Once we break above the 4p level and stay above it is when I will assume they've been cleared. The next resistance level is at 6.5.

Its not neccesarily the size of trades it is the pattern. Sometimes buys show as sells and vice versa as kyserzone pointed out. We have to compare the price of the trade to other trades at that time. Often the Mms will report trades late which makes it more difficult, so always check time stamp. If a trade is priced higher than the previous it is likely a buy(not always the case depending on size). Different brokers may also quote different buy and sell prices. Level 2 also helps as it tells you when a market maker has moved. If a mm has moved up at the time a large trade went through then that is a buy. Dummy buy and sell quotes will give you the definate buy and sell price at the time. Fat fingers be careful though.

There's no way to know for sure but with practice you can get pretty good at it.

They've already been selling each time we've got close to 4p. Selling slows down each time we drop below.
Yes, significant news is needed to offset them and move us past 4.

I see it as a technical hurdle for the sp. The company itself has made good progress but unfortunately that hasn't reflected in the sp so far.

Patience as this is a slow burner, we'll get there.

Best wishes to all and bring on 2021

@blackdog

The morrocon license was awarded in Nov 2018 pending a £1.5mil returnable bank guarantee to the morrocon goverment. The convertible loan note was issued Feb 2019 to Arato in order to do so. Neccesary to get the license before concoco phillips or somebody else.

Jan this year a placing for 100mil shares took place at 4p. This was to raise the funds to drill morroco. Then covid happened and the markets crashed.

A few months later a smaller placing at 2p was done to pay off Arato. Them converting and dumping was having a negative effect on the sp.

A lot of those that took part in the placing will be traders, who were in for a quick profit on morroco drilling. So the delays due to covid have meant that hasn't happened.

Some of the 4p placees will have taken part at 2p as well bringing their averages down.

Currently we have 240mil shares a 100mil of those bought at 4p. It has been a while at around 1mil shares traded a day so we have been slowly churning through them.

Both placings were neccesary but it does mean we still have strong resistance around these levels for now.

Bpc is a terrible reference.

In a worst case scenario you're hinting at and the world goes into another harsh lockdown. Oil demand drops and the prices tumble.

This has no effect on morroco as it's not till q2 next year. Enough headroom to allow the vaccination programs to take off.
Ireland progress can continue via zoom/emails.
Trinidad we may have some difficulty as it's producing now but that's not the aim there. Like the last lockdown, heritage will store the oil and not sell at a loss. Our aim there now is to expand to other fields, those negotians and plans can continue. Projects were allowed to continue last time.

Now back to your terrible reference Bpc. Over 10 years to get to drilling (which may be stopped in the courts) and the world goes into another lockdown and oil demand evaporates lol. Good luck trying to find a partner on favourable terms for share holders. 4.6billion shares not much running room there for shareholders.

I don't think this will happen and the vaccines will be a success. Just a reply to his nonsense trolling.

@muir

"My gut feeling is I don't know anymore but at around 2p without the PS1 drill we can't be far off fair value with other assest coming online in 2021".

The way to know more is to look at what cerp was valued at pre merger. £17million. At 2p Bpc is valued at around £95mil. Obviously that does not add up. Since the merger cerps assets haven't increased in value from 17-95mil.

It's all about perspective. Dilution also means the upside is capped.

10 years and billions of shares issued to finally begin the drilling. If they hit a commercial find, there's still no plan on how to fund the next steps, despot issuing so many shares. I expect a dilution rns in the event of a succesful drill.

Currently over 4.5billion shares and a mcap above £100m. The upside here is capped at £500m mcap on a succesful commercial drill. That's me being generous considerimg many opec members can just turn up the taps if demand picks up.

At a £500m mcap the share price will be around 10.5p. If more dilution that will slip down to 9.5/10p in the event of a commercial success.

Be realistic in your expectations and take everything on this board with a pinch of salt.

Rampers are just as bad.