Member Info for zebbo

Bet they are still trying to work this out, feels like it could have financial implications "governance" what has he left BP open to..!!!! Otherwise they would have stated something like inappropriate behaviour

Tate's Fresh Results Give Huber the Upper Hand - Tate & Lyle recently published full-year results, and the figures are a double-edged sword that actually helps Huber demand more money.

The Bad News: Revenue slipped 3% and adjusted pre-tax profit fell 5% to £238 million. This proves the standalone business is in a temporary cyclical rut, meaning the board cannot simply act bulletproof.

The Ace up the Sleeve: Tate revealed that the integration of CP Kelco (the asset they bought from Huber) is going incredibly well. They hit their annual $50 million cost-synergy target a full year ahead of schedule. Furthermore, the value of their cross-selling product pipeline more than doubled in the second half of the year.Huber can point directly to this data room evidence and say: "Look at how fast we are extracting value from CP Kelco. We aren't giving you this momentum for 615p.

The Pricing Gap: The City widely views 615p as an opening bid designed to get the doors unlocked. Because a UK Scheme of Arrangement requires 75% shareholder approval, Huber’s ~16% block gives them immense leverage to dictate the final price.The "Dead Zone" (615p – 640p): Low probability of success. Huber took their shares at an implied value closer to 680p during the CP Kelco sale. They will not crystallize a clear loss during a macro dip.The Sweet Spot (660p – 680p): High probability of an agreement. This allows Huber to break even or claim a minor win on their initial entry price, gives other institutional investors (like Lindsell Train) a near-80% premium on the undisturbed price, and stays within Ingredion's comfortable $3.3\times$ debt-leverage capacity

Valuation State Core Assets Included Implied Fair Mcap (£) Implied Per Share Value at between $1.50 - $2.5 boe ,could have used higher boe bit gone for 2c only

Valuation State Core Assets Included Implied Fair Mcap (£) Implied Per Share Value

Current Market Price DEWA + Temaris (Heavily Discounted) £64.7m 92p (Current)

Clean Baseline Fair Value DEWA + Temaris (No exploration upside) £120m – £170m 170p – 240p

Post-Success Block 2A 10% Net Kertang (170m boe discovered) £193m – £322m 275p – 458p

The "Total Win" Target DEWA + Temaris + Block 2A Success £313m – £492m 445p – 700p0

Current Market Price DEWA + Temaris (Heavily Discounted) £64.7m 92p (Current)

Clean Baseline Fair Value DEWA + Temaris (No exploration upside) £120m – £170m 170p – 240p

Post-Success Block 2A 10% Net Kertang (170m boe discovered) £193m – £322m 275p – 458p

The "Total Win" Target DEWA + Temaris + Block 2A Success £313m – £492m 445p – 700p

Kerry Group or private equity - Advent could well enter the fray

Note 11th June PUSU rule, this can be rolled over for a further 28 days, if parties agree. I have had shares in the past that have had multiple rollovers.

Re Temaris, I expect the partner is lined up and they are just waiting for final signing on adjacent block, to square the deal

2A rig update and timeline for drill could drop anytime

We should also get an update on 2A very soon. Can see us powering through the £1 barrier very soon

Performance so far in H2 has seen strong late bookings, but has been impacted by the Middle East conflict through higher fuel costs and lower forward visibility.

H1 FY26 headline loss before tax1: £(552) million (H1 FY25: £(394) million)

Reported H1 FY26 loss before tax: £(552) million (H1 FY25: £(401) million)

Not sure we will ever be a takeover target, the value catalyst is getting a good deal done. I feel this may be close (relativley speaking) based on the language used when this question was answered

Just for the record I meant 100k shares :-)

Following the recent presentation I took 100k this morning.

Main Reasons

- Looks like possible targets in our crosshairs

- Stabalisation at SASA

- SP now looking very cheap

- Divi

- Structural CU move

Hahaha, who are you trying to kid.....

Are we likely to get one on Thurs. As they say PWs usually come in 3s. So Im expecting the outlook to be poor

70% hedged for Summer 2026 dropping to 62% for the second half of 2026. That is not good based on POO today. Pundits are also saying the spike in oil is yet to come as SPRs are now running low

I must be, having bought these at 4p :-)

Hedgeman, you are way off re NAV value. You are thinking book NAV, which is the wrong NAV measure

As a case study look at Cove Energy - sold at a massive premium to their prevailing NAV and share price at the time. If the same thing happened to SEA you could be looking at c£20 ps. SEA would be in a similar position as Cove if successful and thats just for 2A

Which other partners will be doing the same, this is adding fuel (or lack of :-) to the fire

Great hedge as we move into a more inflationary period around the world thanks to US/Iran war. Grains are tomorrows issue, whilst oil is todays major issue

Plus scientists are also warning that El Niño could intensify climate extremes in 2026

"intrinsic value" for RELX closer to 2,023p based on DCF, contrasting sharply with the current market price near 2,349p.

This valuation model has gained traction among some bearish-leaning quantitative analysts and may be impacting the SP

POO is unlikely to fall, even when SoH opens. So when hedging finishes, we will implode cost wise

Cannot see the mcap rising above 25-30M, that in the next 18 mths. Happy to be proved wrong though. I do have a few EST but dont follow closely

Just to add a little more colour + timeline, for any new investors

Temaris - To conclude farm-out during H1-26, intense industry interest - c1TCF + may get adjacent acreage H1 26 (target)

DEWA - FDP submission Q2-26 followed by FID Q3-26

Kertang (2A) drill H1 2027 targeting 9TFCs +

Fully funded and still c£50mcap

Agree £2+ prior to 2A drill, if successful will add c£10-15 per share alone

Thats why there is no stock and no sellers :-)

Watch for this in June. Games are being played re the jet fuel story. On one hand its not a problem, on the other we have weeks of supply left. Hard to know who to believe. But a friend of a friend (who is a pilot - not EZJ) reckons he will be furloughed in June, sort of tells a story of where we are