Member Info for Zarro

Agreed Mark. Yesterday I sold all my GGP at about 8.5p and re-invested all of it in additional SVE shares at about 8.75p Once they convert I will be just about back to break even on GGP - assuming GGP price does not collapse from here. I'd better get on to II myself!

Arbitrage appears to be worth about 30% over a month. Surprised the spread has remained that wide....so maybe the de-listing is not as nailed on as it appears to be or the GGP price today is considered more than 30% too high - But what do I know? These are crazy times. Anyhow, I couldn't resist.....

Alessandro - imo your understanding is broadly correct. As far as I understand it (but I am no expert at this level of complexity and am more than happy to be corrected by others). company enters into hedging contracts to sell the bulk of its future product at a an agreed price. We would all agree this is prudent. Those hedging arrangements then have to be marked to market against the spot price in terms of the treatment in the audited accounts for the potential liability (out of the money) or gain (in the money) with the hedging counterparties involved. This measures the risk that Diversified fails to deliver the product and they have to go into the spot market to buy the product they have promised to deliver (or the hedging contract has to be closed out). So when market prices are high (or higher than the contracted rate under the hedge) Diversified have a potential liability. And when market prices are lower than the hedged rate Diversified has a potential gain (ie it would go into the market and buy below the hedged rate to deliver under the hedging arrangement). Bottom line is that the hedging gains/liabilities are basically notional and only become real if Diversified fails to deliver product to the hedging counterparties as contracted.

One of the very big variables still out there on the projected valuation is at what price they will raise equity - 5p; 10p; 15p?

From the updated Corp Presentation I reckon (if they try to go it alone) they need to raise say $150m (£120m) as part of the total say $300m funding requirement (inc contingencies and working capital) - with the rest coming from debt.

The project values at £750m on a post-Tax NPV(8) basis or c4.5x EBITDA. If they issue 1.2bn new shares at 10p then the projected share price might be £750m/2.9bn shares i.e. c25p per share. Then adjust up or down for (a) actual rights issue price (b) downside risks (c) upside opportunities. I have seen broker put a 0.4 - 0.6x risk on these sorts of targets for what may develop over next couple of years, which would get us somewhere near their share price target 16p. Just my personal doodles and I have been way out before. GLA.

Darcey

Always hard to disagree with Jpwh's views... so I won't try.

Complete speculation on my part, but perhaps some of it is selling Zzzzzinnwald and switching into Savannah and EMH.......

Savannah Resources got its Environmental Approval today for its Lithium mine in northern Portugal....

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volkswagen-invest-mines-bid-become-global-battery-supplier-2023-03-17/

Doesn't answer the question whether it will be in my lifetime.

Thanks for the responses. Duh - whoops on the market (I have plenty of others which are). Didn't realise the time quoted does not really mean anything. Will stop wasting time on looking at the line by line trades reported - clearly it could have been a buy. Anyway happy day today as my over extended (for me) averaging in has just about got me back to £1K above the water line.

Sorry to interrupt all the 'one on one' banter - can someone who understands these things explain how/who would sell 220k of stock at 18p less than a minute after the close when the bid was at 18.75p? How does that work? While I am at it perhaps someone could also explain to me how/why it was apparently so easy to take this thing all the way to 13p over the last few months. Surely someone knows exactly who has been doing what to pull this market left and right without having to appear on the radar. Thanks (just a simple guy who never worked on a trading floor trying to understand this Aim casino)

These new brokers are good aren't they.......

Re announcement below. Not sure if this clears the seller and will allow a more normalised market or whether that was already factored into the dismal share price of late.

Munich, 16 January 2023 - The liquidation of the shares of Zinnwald Lithium plc has been completed. The payment of the liquidation proceeds from the sale of the shares less the liquidation costs will now be made by the Joint Representatives for crediting to the deposits or accounts of the entitled bondholders. The payment is considered (partial) satisfaction of the claims from the Solarworld bonds filed in the insolvency table. Entitled are the bondholders of the bond 2014/2019-2 with the WKN A1YCN1 as well as the bond 2014/2019-1 with the WKN A1YDDX of SolarWorld AG, who have not exercised their subscription right for the shares of Zinnwald Lithium plc. The total net liquidation proceeds achieved are EUR 0.12 per share, resulting in a cash payment of EUR 8.16 per Bond 2014/2019-2 with WKN A1YCN1 and EUR 7.93 per Bond 2014/2019-1 with WKN A1YDDX. If not already done, the Joint Representatives request the bondholders who have not yet registered to contact the Settlement Agent and provide it with the information necessary for the settlement of the transfer:

It would be sensible to do so mehmehmeh. My view would be a cut to say 5c - 6c which, on a yield of say 6%, might imply share price bottoming out at around 70 - 75p. Just a view (I am invested north of 120p)

See RNS on Samson increased holding in Appreciate. I am no expert, but just looks like a straight insurance hedge whilst they look to finesse the last few bips out of the Appreciate share price.

Feels suspiciously like someone did.......

It might equally be argued that it suits big European OEMS to have their politicians on the case against Lithium just long enough to keep valuations down until they get their finger out and get on with writing off (aka milking) their investments in combustion before inevitably transitioning to EV and the politicians benefit from few more years slack to try (and fail) to meet their wild but politically 'nice sounding' zero emission targets..............but only a very sad cynic would think that. So it must be a genuine concern for safety.

but overall probably less hazardous than Russian oil and gas contracts ......

So are they out in full or do they still have 2.99% to sell......and how many others are there out there dribbling down.......?
We will find out one day.....

At a guess this might reflect the monetisation of either (a) the Solarworld shareholding (or hedge funds who helped them exit) or (b) the perhaps start of a Ganfeng unwind. As at 22 March they were still holding the 8.7% they got from the Bacanora acquisition/sale c£25m shares. If it is (b) then we may face a fairly long period of downward pressure at current daily volumes.

Or....... maybe it is something completely different!

That's a great find Starfoxx. I am no mining expert but I am pretty fluent in Portuguese. A quick flick through the various folders shows paperwork up to around Q1 last year.

Lets hope that the most material finding is the environmental impact from the forest of trees used to prepare these reports!!

...hmmm. Interesting