Member Info for Yorkshirepragma

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/kodak-stock-price-movement-after-skyrocketing-1200-percent-2-days-2020-7-1029450808#

Up1000% ,QED

With success...revenue. £X100m.. value of comparable biotech company 15-30 x . As MMc referred investors may be ‘surprised’. Here’s all crossed...‘Bon weekend a to use

But not enough.....revenue for Avacta going forward from testing( alone) may be comparable ,or probably in excess.
FYI
GLA

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-qiagen-m-a-thermo-fisher/qiagen-investor-psquared-wont-tender-shares-in-thermo-fisher-bid-idUSKCN24U1TI

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtech/thermo-fisher-throws-extra-billion-to-buy-covid-19-testing-supplier-qiagen

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-tests-per-thousand-people-smoothed-7-day

- On basis of high/ low GDP split 3bn/4.8bn pop.est.
- Daily test requirement / market ( from data) of High GDP 1.5/day Low GDP 0.25 day( per 1000 pop.)
- Thence daily 4.5m ( highGDP) and 1.2m tests(Low) ,ie. 5.7 m/day globally( before commercial increase due to ease of testing from Av. Partner test)
- Assume 10%Avacta partner market capture -570,000 tests day.
- @$5 revenue( MMc insight) :- roughly $2.5m rev. /day.
- Ca1bn Rev. Ann...?!
@ Market cap x 15 .( average (Low) Biotech multiplier in use)..then ...?!

Interesting as my Old maths teacher used to say....
GLA

RK, A comment:
Clearly whilst the AZ acquisition reported is somewhat “down the track “ from AV ‘s product track position . The animal study evidence is very strong( atypically) . It may well be this would create a very early interest investment/ buy.
There are fewer good potential products available in this area from the new Biotechs and larger players are likely to be Interested I’d suggest.
Would be a time to “watch the car park” if I was still in the game!
We’ll see...
GLA

Missed off last item...Poss market cap, based on biotech multiplier on earnings...x15...$ 2.4bn.
Certainly up there and £1bn ish/+ on successful launch(es)
GLA

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-tests-per-thousand-people-smoothed-7-day

Nearer 1/1000 world pop./daily.... Say 25% of 7bn in the Covid western wrap.
1.75m tests per day /640m Ann.
@ 5% uptake..$5 test return...$160m return
X15...

Analysis:
Covid tests (@$5 return) for say a slim 5% Avacta inspired tests uptake
Then taking RKs 1.4bn tests per month
1400x0.05x5=$350m ,p/m
....?
Market cap. 15x profit...
Should see the programmes through then.....

Value of biotechs 15-30x multilebif earnings .. work it out ...

Bearing in mind the tech from Av and partners is prob.less complex/swifter/quicker in turnaround etc..,
We’ll see... Stateside publicity will be courtesy of Danaher...

Mass Spec .is the mainstay of laboratory work. The additional costs v quality likely are trivial.

Howdy Dudy time....? 14.30 bst

Whilst testing required , proteins unlikely to be a concern....

https://avance.ch/ubercooluploads/2018/12/Avance_on_PEratio.pdf

And so just tentatively Myles Mc Nulty 10bn potential market cap.comment, might stand up at the level of income a ‘share’ of the testing pool would generate.
ie. @ x times revenue....poss. 15-25x revenue? ...see Swiss paper enc.
...” Hear a word in season“
GLA

https://s24.q4cdn.com/594651504/files/doc_presentations/2020/05/Quidel-Investor-Presentation-Q220-v2.pdf
If $500ann revenue in mainly diagnostics will create a MCAP of several $bn, then all to play for.
Successful generation of revenues from current projects might well attain this level.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200506005887/en/Quidel-Reports-Quarter-2020-Financial-Results

By analogy , Avacta should move ahead in due course , the USA Cytiva link’ will likely be a supporting catalyst...

Great summary. Obtaining a moderate percentage of the market would be significant. Cytiva well placed.

Stating the many times stated, and obvious, the ‘ release’ info will be Cytivas prerogative.
......

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/evil-diaries/evil-knievil-boo-who/?mc_cid=158b473dea&mc_eid=842b098480