Hargreaves Lansdown11 Jun 2018 20:57
Once up and running, Sirius believes it will be able to produce at around $32.60 a tonne, while the market price is expected to be $125/tonne. A very healthy profit margin.
There�s enough polyhalite in the ground for the mine to produce for 100 years or more. Depending on volumes (production could be as high as 20 mtpa) and exact market price, Sirius thinks EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) will be between $0.7bn and $3.4bn a year.
That kind of cash flow could be very attractive to investors, especially once the debt needed to build the mine has been repaid. All being well, there�s potential for a substantial, and sustained, dividend payout.
However, even if all goes to plan that future is still some way off, and in a complex project like this there�s a lot that can go wrong.
It�s three years until production starts, and six until the ramp up is complete. If the group encounters serious delays, the debt needed to fund the project could become an increasingly heavy burden. Debt repayments will make significant demands on cash in the early years in any case, potentially limiting the scope for returns to investors.
We think all investments should be made with a long term view. But with Sirius that is truer than ever. The shares will be volatile over the years ahead, and price movements are likely to be news driven - since a lack of sales makes the group difficult to value.