A very good read in FT. Specifically mentions PCR tests22 Dec 2020 12:34
The UK may not have enough coronavirus tests to meet surging demand in the coming weeks, according to an internal government document, as the new strain of Covid-19 sends cases soaring.
Demand for the conventional polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests used by the NHS Test and Trace programme was predicted to outstrip supply in the week to Christmas by up to 50,000 tests a day, according to government calculations made last week and seen by the Financial Times.
The forecast that demand could exceed 700,000 tests a day, when capacity currently stands at 650,000, was made before the effect of the new strain of Covid-19 was fully understood.
Since those calculations were made, Boris Johnson, the UK prime minister, has said that the mutation could be up to 70 per cent more transmissible than the earlier strain. The warning caused international alarm and has resulted in more than 40 countries imposing travel bans on Britain.
Allan Wilson, who heads the Institute of Biomedical Science, a professional body, said that while the new rules restricting family visits at Christmas might relieve pressure in the next few days, “increased demand from this new strain of Covid-19 is likely to offset the decrease”.
“We can only hold our breath and see what happens,” he said.
A surge in demand for Covid-19 tests in the run-up to Christmas, rising from around 380,000 a day on December 14, has been fuelled by a concerning rise in cases, particularly in south-east England, as well as large numbers of people without symptoms ordering tests before they visit family members.
That has put strain on the testing system, with many people taking to social media to report they had been unable to order home testing kits over the weekend or been sent miles to reach the nearest available drive-in centre.
The government increased capacity to about 593,000 tests a day at the end of last week and will raise it by a further 100,000 a day next week, according to the document, with capacity due to increase to 788,000 by January 19.
Nonetheless, NHS Test and Trace predicts that demand might outstrip testing capacity several times next month, as the virus continues to spread and students return to school and university.
The Department of Health and Social Care said there was capacity to respond to increases in demand and “people can have confidence that if they have symptoms and need a test, they can get one”.
But it insisted that “individuals should book PCR tests only if they had symptoms of coronavirus: a high temperature, a new continuous cough or a loss or change to sense of smell or taste”.
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