RE: Research13 Oct 2018 12:24
Seadog,
The point about "what's in it for Nuog" is a fair one.
The only thing that Nuog can be certain of is that they get 50% of any dividends that may be declared. Also 50% of any assets on a liquidation. That is a fact. Read it again carefully and note the word it is predicated on. You understand corporate law. You know its true.
It is not worth anything to Nuog as a result of its mere existence (though it may enable them to revalue their holding in MfDevCo and impact positively the balance sheet).
So what was posted is, in fact, true. It is not the whole story though.
In practice - that is not all that Nuog will eventually gain. So I will speculate what else might happen.
The likely result, as highlighted by RNS', is that the deal offered to Nuog from Mfdevco will be based on participation in the development of the project. They will agree something. The paticipation is not just financial of course, there other efforts. But a fair and decided proportion will apply.
My gut reaction is that will be about 50/50 of revenue left over after an agreed portion has been retained for MFDevCo forward development (that raises other interesting possibilities going forwards but would be a subject for another post).
What we dont know - though you might - is what the participation has been. Maybe Nuog have only funded 10%. Maybe 70%.
Any speculation as to what it is is merely speculation. Not certainty.
It also cuts both ways. Maybe the deal eventually done by Mfdevco requires cash. Or borrowings.
If Nuog participate in the return on some sort of revenue share they may also be required to participate in the borrowing or cash requirements along the way.
In the, hopefully unlikely, event of something going wrong with the field what then ?
Perhaps there is a non insured event which causes financial catastrophe. Does that miraculously stop with MfDevCo ? It could. Or maybe it could not. It depends what has been agreed.
Perhaps costs escalate and production drops? Does Nuog get to walk away scot free.
Perhaps it is all stunningly good. Revenue far exceeds expectations? Do Nuog benefit from that.
We do not know where the risks will be. Who will in effect be taking them. They will expect to be rewarded for that. Rightly so.
Does this make it all a bad idea ? Of course not.
Do I think it will he a bad deal ? No. I am certain a fair deal will be done.
Can I assume it is 50/50? No. Though I do expect it will be broadly that. Both to the upside and to the downside.
I also very much doubt we will ever know "the real deal". All that will be published is likely a couple of lines in an RNS'. It will still leave a lot of detail unknown.
But I wouldn't expect them to publish in anything other than broad terms anyway.
On a possibly related note you might want to think about Einars connection with Fearnley and what that might possibly mean. Again speculation but interesting with their activi