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casapinos, how do you look at the SP movement while CA accumulated 4m shares?
A novice like myself would expect the demand to result in a positive movement in SP, while on the contrary supply is created for the new demand at a lower SP using existing nervousness/panic/fear.
Similarly when the SP went from 32 to 36p, CA were still offloading. There were few 1.5m orders which pulled the SP down from over 36p to close at 35, but still green on the day CA completed its offloading.
Not simple supply and demand is it?
DSPP,
I can see where you are coming from with the evidence on OGA charts, but is it not possible that HUR's interpretation of the same data is different to yours.
In July presentation HUR mentioned that as there is very little draw down, it is not possible for the aquifer water to come up against gravity. There was also Bach Ho graph in the July presentation showing the water cut, which even though is not a high percentages but shows a rapid increase during 87-88 and then a linear increase against production from 88-89, but then suddenly drops down significantly in 89-90.
Also on slide 11 of Oct roadshow the EPS start up results show water cut for 6 well as nil and for 7z at 8%. Do we expect them to include Sept data there? I believe they should have!
I know the RNS was ambigous with little technical details and an unexpected Lancaster update on its way, but that may as well be to give something positive to hang onto until Q1 2020, as it is likely to be otherwise. I don't know where WW result and no further update on Lancaster till Q1 would have left us.
You are a very respected poster and your opinion (which most value and respect) matters and has consequences. Usually we find answers with you but seems this time you yourself are left with a lot of unknowns and fears.
We must be having around 7p+/share in cash by year end. I want to ask your worst case scenario but please don't tell me as it seems everyone will believe that to be the only scenario.
Dr.Trice argued and presented the water issue with a lot of certainty in each one of his presentations and roadshows from July till now. I believe he even said once that this issue has been put to rest with all the evidence thus far. Hope he was right all along and he does not have to eat his own words and a lot more.
Nerve wrecking time to say the least. Hope it works out well for holders!
Closing price was traded at 8:30 this morning. Stayed above that all day and yet closed at 35p with a massive 1.5m UT.
Another 4m @35.95 off-book trade is also showing up around the same time.
Don't know if they mean anything but we added next to nothing to the SP on a day which looks positive for the markets as well as brent which is up $2+ on the day.
May mean something for someone more knowledgeable.
wellwell, meant to understand your point of view better, so wanted to ask the question myself as well.
I also looked at the graph which showed data until Sep'19. Now the % of water produced does seem to be going up as the average production is ramped up. I do understand that since the production is from two wells and there was issue with flowlines for a month in between the % cannot be accurately calculated.
But what information do we have? We know that one of the wells(6) is only producing dry oil while the other one (7z) produces water as well. With this knowledge the % of water being produced by that one well is minimum the % in the graphs. So what I am implying is that the 7z well in Sept produced at least 8% water (which I highly doubt) as that would mean 0 production from the 6 well in Sept. So in all reality if both wells are equally used in Sept then 7z would have produced 16% water.
How would you analyse the information based on that one of the wells is producing dry oil?
Pretty bruised so No opinion just information
Some pictures finally surfacing on facebook group. Night one looks like a big flare. Hope they are genuine. GLA
Hope you are right but would have expected the SP to have really reacted to that. We PIs are the last ones to know! How credible is your source??
Grampian Sovereign seems to be heading to TL after a stop at AM.
KL Brisfjord heading to TOL with eta 09:00 am tomorrow
Expected both supply vessels to be around before DST and also fits in with the weekend DST speculation by a few here. GLA
Rem Trader on route to TL eta 10:00 am tomorrow. Gla
Again a short stop at the rig for KL BRIDJFORD. Seems to be haring back towards Scrabster. Very short stops at either end!
KL Brisjford seems to be haring in the direction of Scrabster after a brief stop at the rig and Rem Trader seems to be switching sides in Aberdeen port. I guess thats where they load the mud from. More knowledgable ship watchers can confirm!
30m+ traded and under under 2% up. What's the reading into that?
A roadshow was done with Berenberg on 22nd Oct and that is what EV is referring to. Why should EV not be concerned, when a great Capital Markets day (which pushed the SP upto 55p) was immediately followed by Kerogen offloading 5% of the company at a considerable discount to the SP. Lock in period of just 120 days is almost over. I share his concern but at the same time question how low a price would a major holders accept even if they need to sell?
I thought Troms Capella was coming off charter today and Kl Brisfjord replaces it starting from tomorrow for 3 weeks. Seems to have already left Peterhead and heading towards Aberdeen. Must have been mentioned by laserdisc on Advfn. Will be interesting where it loads up from.
Thanks emptyvessel. The price action seems to be confirming the same. People in the know, know now!!
Destination: Lancaster Oilfield
ETA 12 Oct 01:00
Wow thats the shortest time between offloads.
(thanks emptyvessel for keeping us informed in advance) Maybe over to Amaja to confirm the volume! If its close to 450k that would be amazing!! Good weekend all!
Expected him to be on the rig around that time, as that would be the business end of the drill. He missed the AGM for WD! Timing seems a bit odd unless I am miscalculating something!
A very positive meeting with management of Hurricane Energy. We continue to believe that in 2021, Hurricane should be generating £300 million a year as against current value of £800 million. Our price target is 347p.