Member Info for Yaryls

Useful post.

There are a number of reasons someone might want to / need to sell their holdings so the share price is relevant and unfortunately over 3 years, 5 years, and 10 the 3 solar funds you have mentioned have been disappointing with 3 year returns around -25%, 5 year around -12 % to -25%, and 10 year the same -12% to -25%.

So although the dividends may look compelling when factoring capital loss they loose their shine (no pun intended). With respect to solar, every year there is a 1 to 2% reduction in total production due to panel decline so over 10 years expect a reducing output and lower income but increasing costs with inflation. I would expect a total re-instal of new equipment would be required after 12-15 years to maintain a viable system. Also it is getting hotter and solar panels really do not like heat with output dropping considerably above 30 degrees - power outputs are nearly always quoted at 20 degrees which in Italy is the Autumn and Spring when there is much more cloud. So in reality solar may not be as profitable as the basic figures appear to show.

Just had a look at Foresight Solar. Whereas the yield looks strong at nearly 9%, over 3 years the share price is down 25%. Is this an indication solar is out of favour with investors or on a longer time scale may not be as profitable as the figures suggest?

Didn’t rumour of this settlement figure originate from the same unidentified Twitter (X) account as “confirmation” that ICC-2 had “already been won by Zenith” ?

If, and it remains an if until confirmation by the court, the ICC2 is a favourable verdict then the consensus appears to be the final arbitration would be a slam dunk. Given that, wouldn't discounting a potential final award by $300m be too generous? Money in the bank and move on , etc - but $300m buys an awful lot of solar panels.

True but if the company, for example, maintained a positive result arbitration dividend at 50p now it would cost nearly £250m compared with £150m on the shares in issue 6 months ago.. So a reduction of £100m in the amount available for future company investment compared with the sum raised through dilution of less than £11m which is £89m less for future investment so it looks like the multiple raises have (counterintuitively) significantly reduced future investment funds- can't have your cake and eat it.

Over the last 6 months the total share issue has ballooned from 303,711,961 to 493,224,462. This equates to a reduction of 40% per share of any arbitration payouts.

I'm not sure how any future solar income could possibly compensate for the huge reduction in potential payout per share. Whereas diversification and investing for the future can be a good thing so can patience. Either selling the first arbitration claim as another poster suggested) or just simply waiting for the imminent arbitration decision would have been a considerably better outcome for existing shareholders particularly the more loyal/longstanding ones.

"Summer in the UK is Sat, Jun 21, 2025 – Mon, Sep 22, 2025, whereas 'mid 2025' could be anytime from end of may to end of July."

Hopefully it will be even earlier. Summer starts on June 1st and ends August 31st. June 21st is the summer (mid-summer) solstice.

Will this reduce the (often) extremely high bid/sell spread of LON:ZEN ?

Yes and not totally contradict (twice) written assurances of no further dilution.

So I'm glad you understand my frustration!

CLT95,

I understand your well expressed points.

I have been a shareholder for 7 years, my family have significant holdings in the company, on no occasion have we been given the opportunity to partake in the large number of placings over the years and on most occasions have resorted to market purchases to try and maintain our holdings. I wrote to Andrea months ago to ask about the possibility of being included in placements but no reply was received. I welcomed his statement in February about no further placements but he has subsequently reneged on this twice. So I'm glad to understand my frustration!

....and to put this in perspective each £1.00 of any arbitration proceeds (including the one already determined) has now fallen to 63 pence, through dilution, since 27th October last year. Solar revenues will come nowhere near replacing a third of the potential arbitration payouts.

Andrea Cattaneo "I am also pleased to confirm, in consideration of the activities we are currently pursuing, that we do not foresee the need for any additional equity capital raising prior to the issuance of the ICC-2 Arbitration decision." RNS 3rd February 2025.

Since this statement there have been 2 further dilutions (4 if you include the loan notes and the dilutive stock options). Very disappointing. This strategy makes no sense whatsoever to current shareholders if you think there is any possibility the arbitrations will be successful.

Solar installations tend to be rated at their maximum theoretical output (midday) Once Invertor loss is factored in and average production over the daylight hours (approximately 45% to 50% of peak output) then total annual output will be considerably lower than might be initially assumed.

Bit of a strange interview - he was just reading from a script.

In terms of the energy investment strategy this could be a risk as the non-fossil fuel space is pretty vacant as the oil majors rush for the exit.

From the interview linked below "

In parallel, we are actively pursuing legal remedies against ETAP, with arbitration claims totalling $642.7 million—over six times our market capitalization."

Surely a misquote, the claims if received in full total 14 times current mCap not six.

"I am also pleased to confirm, in consideration of the activities we are currently pursuing, that we do not foresee the need for any additional equity capital raising prior to the issuance of the ICC-2 Arbitration decision." quote from Andrea Cattaneo in the 3rd February RNS. If he is confident of successful arbitration results then this does appear a bizarre decision made at the expense of existing shareholders.

"We win first (third) it’s 100-200p"

Resulting Market Cap £446m - 892m ??

I've held Zenith shares for many a year and have tried to maintain a respectable share of the company by "topping up" along the way. Unfortunately this has been difficult due to the sheer number of placements (I've lost count but possibly approaching 20 ). As a reminder of the journey, when the shares were first listed on the LSE there were 9,856,487 (re-rated applying the 10 to 1 consolidation) each trading at 70p. I see now that there are 445,714,354 trading at around 9-10p. So for each original share there are now 45 times the number, yes 45 not 4.5!. So pretty hard to keep up with. I'm hoping for a good result in the arbitration processes and am wishing the company well as all shareholders stand to gain! ... . fingers crossed!

"Not being familiar with Canadian Tax rates, I have been doing a bit of research. It seems to me that the awards will be taxable as profits, so that there will be a 15% Federal Tax, and 8% Alberta State Tax deduction."

The claimant is a UK company, Zenith Energy Africa Ltd (as described on the ICSID website) so wouldn't any tax liabilities, in the event of a successful claim, be under UK jurisdiction? This link explains potential tax liabilities due on arbitration claims. https://www.acerislaw.com/taxation-of-international-arbitration-awards/