Member Info for Yaryls

"AC seems a very generous man; most especially when allocating a very big bunch of stock options at extremely unstretching price targets to himself?"

In the event of a successful arbitration outcome it could result in a windfall for him of nearly £10,000,000 (at the expense of general shareholders). Be interested what the general feeling is about this.

29 million stock options issued at NOK 0.44. I guess this has the practical result of diluting any arbitration payout by nearly 5%.

"Current Market Cap £24.34m.

Valuation 'as is' of the Solar portfolio circa £26m.

Add Italian profit making Gas/Electric.

Add Uranium.

THEN AND ONLY THEN, add the arbitrations."

I believe there is about £27m of debt in the company - doesn't this just swallow up the solar valuation?

Reality Check - a 200 MW solar company may be worth +$200m - possibly a fair bit more, however that is for operational parks.

The enterprise value of 200MW ready to build (which is where Zenith are currently) is closer to $30m. To progress 200MW from ready to build to operational would likely cost between $140m to $160m.

So although the solar purchases are adding value to the company it won't be $200m worth of solar by the end of the year. Fingers crossed we can achieve an equivalent valuation, or more, through the arbitration result

"Early december placing held it back."

By that do you mean the participants of the placing are selling for quick profit above the issue price of NOK 0.4662?

There is also the decision on the ICC 2 annulment application due around the same time (March to June estimated) so a key period for Zenith fast approaches.

Rate of interest is 14% annually (compounded on a monthly basis) not 14% per month.

"Well it was a good investment odds wise, and the ICC1 is now included in ICSID which helps"

My understanding is there has been a procedural ruling by the ICSID arbitration that has granted permission to admit the details of the ICC-1 award as evidence in the ICSID case. Similarly Tunisia had applied for details of the ICC-2 decision to also be admitted which again was granted. So in a way ICC-! is included (as evidence) but it remains a separate proceeding from the ongoing ICSID arbitration including enforcement of the award.

EarEyeAm: "So what you are saying is that the value of the Solar and Uranium that the dilution has added to the company, are not worth the difference between 66p and 57p that the dilution has caused to the arbitrations .... 9p per share???"

No, the placement dropped the possible ICSID uplift per share from 78p to 66p - 12p per share, it also dropped the value per share of all the other company's holdings by 15%. The drop from 66p to 57p is an additional dilution that will likely be caused by outstanding warrants (84m of them) being exercised at their strike price of around 2p.

It is not all negative as I understand more irons in the fire and extra funding will create value beyond the arbitrations, however as a long term holder (since 2018) now with a significant amount of shares it is frustrating to have the repeated dilutions especially when there is no opportunity to partake in the placings.

"So complaining about dilution in relation to the arbitration outcome doesn’t really make sense. If Zenith wins $573 million in the ICSID case, that alone adds around 66p per share to the company’s value based on today’s share count. That’s roughly a 20× rerate overnight."

Unfortunately this is not the case in reality. There are over 84 million warrants outstanding at a strike price of around 2p. I cannot see these just expiring before any ICSID claim. Factor these in and the 66p per share falls further to 57p.

When the ICSID claim was instigated the potential payout per share was £1.86p. Yes a binary arbitration play rather than the more financially secure position now but nevertheless an illustration of the sheer amount of dilution over the past couple of years.

And to put it in perspective raising £3.55m translates to a reduction of £67m in the ICSID claim alone for any shareholder affected by the latest dilution.

This is the 9th raise in little over a year dropping an equivalent holding of say 100 down to 46.6 or a 53.4% dilution. For those that haven't followed the numerous raises there is a summary below including Andreas comments concerning dilution.

28/10/25 Placement – dilution 17.14%

13/01/25 Placement – dilution 11.69% Andrea Cattaneo “We are conscious of the importance to avoid unnecessary dilution and deliver the greatest possible value to shareholders at a potentially favourable time for the Company in its efforts to obtain compensation for damages caused by the Tunisian authorities.”

03/02/25 Placement – dilution 6.87% Andrea Cattaneo “I am also pleased to confirm, in consideration of the activities we are currently pursuing, that we do not foresee the need for any additional equity capital raising prior to the issuance of the ICC-2 Arbitration decision."

19/03/25 Placement – dilution 4.53%

02/05/25 Placement – dilution 2.23%

29/05/25 Placement – dilution 3.24% Andrea Cattaneo “Zenith is now fully funded until the expected publication of the outcome of the ICC-2 Arbitration, with the funding being strategically directed towards the Company's objective of building a 20 MWp solar energy portfolio by the end of 2025.”

04/08/25 Warrant issue – dilution 2.14%

10/10/25 Swedish offering – dilution 8.10%

08/12/25 Placement – dilution 15.54% Andrea Cattaneo “I am fully conscious of the painful dilution, and I am pleased to confirm that we do not anticipate conducting any further equity issuances for any of our existing activities until June 2026 at the very earliest following the Financings.”

The options are at an average price of around 11p with 84.238.842 warrants at 2.15p so I can foresee them all being exercised.

Sorry shares after options should be 689,857,342 - poor addition by me!

Was looking through the recent financial statement and noticed a figure of 96,995,685 outstanding warrants and 44,571,435 options. Given that these would likely be exercised prior to expiry, and or any arbitration win, is it correct to consider the shares in issue will rise from 548,290,222 to 689,290,222 (26% dilution)?

So another placement , another dilution and at a discounted share price when a few days earlier AC appears to be claiming the share price should be 600% higher, good luck in finding the sense (for existing shareholders) in this latest move.

The interview with InvestorNytt struck me as slightly odd - more of a plea for a higher share price than a focused update on current activities.

Perhaps AC is wanting to raise capital again for the continuing solar acquisitions (which would be to the detriment of any arbitration payout for current shareholders through continued dilution), and I guess any placement would be out of the question at a lower share price than the last one at NOK 1.935.

Hence the publicity to pump the share price?? hasn't had a major effect with the price slipping back after a temporary spurt.

Having a solid solar business will probably work as a hedge to the arbitrations which must be a good thing but investors shouldn't loose sight of the outstanding bonds at 10% interest and that developing the solar parks will be achieved with further finance resulting in lower production profits net of interest payments.

I am a little surprised that Andrea was so bullish in his many public comments prior to the ruling when he must have already had concerns over the reliability of the arbitration hearing. Should he have been more circumspect given the circumstances? It may have been that he wanted to do as much as possible to bolster the share price to facilitate equity finance raising for the solar project at the best possible terms.

I do hope the arbitration is annulled and Zenith get a second bite at the cherry, fingers crossed.

Current spread 28%!

Most important figure (unless space is a premium) is kW output per unit cost of the panel. State of the art panels (like fine wine) tend to be below the profitability curve. The mid point panels are usually best for sweet spot returns and they may not have the features you describe. Having invested in Zenith for many a year and having a sizeable chunk at the moment I am wanting Zenith to do as well as possible. I also have a sizeable solar rig (in domestic terms) in Southern Europe so are pretty much up to speed with the economics, spot prices and pitfalls. So it is interesting to hear other opinions as to the profitability of Solar.