What really matters5 May 2021 14:33
The SP is back down below 0.30p, yet again.
What really matters to an investor? The answer is simple – the value of the SP since it is the value of the SP that determines investor gains, or, losses.
So what matters to an investor is the SP, but what determines the value of the SP? Some will answer fundamentals, but I don’t agree with this.
What determines the value of the SP, the SP driver, is the market perception of the fundamentals, market expectations, and above all sentiment. This is most important in exploration companies with no defined assets and no revenue – just like Alba.
We all here know that Alba SP is undervalued, but why is that? IMO is because the market expectations have been dampened and sentiment has been almost killed. Expectations dampened with GF’s management of expectations and sentiment almost killed with his failure to show any gold and the f*ck up with the bulk samples.
Had GF managed expectations differently, showed some gold and produced the bulk sample results on time the SP would have been much higher than here.
Just for comparison, I have been watching 3 similar companies; UFO, BZT & ALBA (for the record, I am only invested in Alba). All three last year had an SP with a value of less than 0.10p, more or less at the same time. Right now, the UFO SP is at 1.14p and pushing higher, the BZT SP is at 0.41p and pushing higher, and the ALBA SP is at 0.28p and pushing lower. Why? The answer is above.
IMO, in the future we may get good ALBA RNSs and the SP will jump, but unless GF changes approach, the SP will very likely not hold on to the gains … and in the meantime if another placing occurs (I know we don’t want to talk about these but at some time it will happen) the SP will very likely drop and then may come back up to more or less the same level.
The handling of the Pilot plant is another fiasco. Is really inexcusable for the SP to be down here. Fingers crossed, GF will up his PR, cut back on expectations management and let the market decide what to expect, pay attention to sentiment and do things that improve sentiment.
Only my opinion (IMO) and GLTA.