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No, bluegrass, because, as pointed out by mrcautious in his original question before yours, these Buy & Sell trades are virtually identical, so they’re not Buying and Holding. It’s the Forms 8.3 that’ll show who’s Holding. But you’re only going to know whether they’re going to vote for or against if you lobby them, but they’ve got no obligation whatsoever to tell you their intentions even though I think it’s worth a try.
I don’t think wondering why the Share Price isn’t currently closer to Ganfeng’s prospective Offer Price or whether the Share Price will fall if Ganfeng were to fail in its Bid is effective use of our time.
This isn’t a FTSE100 or 250 Stock like G4S or William Hill or Entain where the Share Price rocketed close to or even higher than prospective Bids. This is a relatively unknown AIM Stock, which, despite its Profile being very kindly been raised by the Daily Telegraph and Sir Iain Duncan Smith, is still very lightly traded.
Until such time as Ganfeng actually makes its Offer or something else newsworthy happens, this may continue to yo-yo between 55p & 58p. Unless we have the funds to Buy hundreds of thousands of Shares a day, there’s nothing we can do about it.
I really don’t see the point going down this route. The FCA will require significant evidence of this to proceed and the FCA will take ages to investigate, conclude and take any action on this. By which time Ganfeng will have made its Offer and it’ll go to a vote.
Personally, I think this is a red herring and we need to focus our energies and limited time on lobbying the Board, other major Shareholders eg M&G etc. and the UK Government.
I think we need to ascertain, with absolute 100% certainty, what % Ganfeng needs to achieve for it to be successful in its Takeover Bid and (currently) 67.5p Offer. I think we all seem to agree that it’s not a simple majority of 51%. But we now appear to have a difference of opinion as to whether it’s 75% or 90% now, unless I’m missing something.
A simple enquiry to Investor Relations at Bacanora Lithium or a search of its website should put this one to bed.
Borotosh, bluegrass, mrcautious , further to dando’s links: in practice during a Bid Situation, you will see multiple Forms 8.5 & 8.3 on a daily basis.
Typically, Forms 8.5 will be Brokers (ie Peel Hunt, Citigroup, Canaccord Genuity in the case of BCN over the last few days) day trading to make a fast & easy buck whilst a Formal Offer is pending, because they’re safe in the knowledge that a higher Bid is almost certainly forthcoming. So it’s easy Profits for them on relatively high Volumes even though the margins between Buy & Sell may appear small. They will also be able to get better deals from the Marketmakers on Spreads than PIs. It appears from the Forms 8.5 that they’re going Long not Short.
The Forms 8.3 will be investors Taking or Disposing of Positions that are required to be disclosed due to those investors new or total Holdings being over reportable limits.
I was a Shareholder in the long drawn-out AA plc Bid Situation/Takeover and there were lots and lots of Forms 8.5 on a daily basis, which were hard to keep up with. Some were Long and some were Short in this case.
Hope this helps.
My pleasure, Strangerstill. Have a nice Saturday (and johnpwh), signing off for a while to watch a movie!
So, do you now agree that M&G’s holding is now 15.87%, johnpwh?
Absolutely not at all, mrcautious! I’m not a trader, I’m a long-term investor. And I’m a long-term investor in Bacanora. I don’t know what makes you think I’m just looking for a short-term punt either. I’m happy for you to ask me questions, but please don’t make unsubstantiated opinions about my investment strategy. Just ask!
Ah, here we go:
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/market-news/form-8-3-bacanora-lithium-plc/14968472
Hi johnpwh & Strangerstill
Re: M&G Shareholding
The “RNS Number : 9488X M&G Investment Management Ltd 07 May 2021” states that as at 6th May 2021, M&G owns 52,528,941 Shares 15.87%.
Why do you both think it’s 13.66%. Sorry, I can’t paste a link to the RNS here.
Who says they’re not Buying at current Prices, sam4224? I topped up a little bit last week.
JBTs, please read the previous posts for your answer including mine at 20:38 yesterday with this Subject heading. We’re not day traders, we’re long-term investors who want a fair price for our blood, sweat & tears of investing our hard-earned cash here. Please vote against Ganfeng’s Offer.
I agree, 62% doesn’t make sense to me. Ganfeng 29.99% + M&G 15.87% = 45.86%. That only leaves 54.14% and much of that may be in institutional investors hands, but small enough such that they don’t have to disclose.
Hi nomadicinvestor, how do you calculate that 62% is in private investors hands?
Agreed, mrcautious. Ironically and somewhat hypocritically, President Biden has continued the hardline against China’s economic policies. But M&G is British so hopefully they’ll tow the UK line as laid out by IDS in the Telegraph article.
Yes, you’re right Fozdog, just checked again. It’s 15.87% on Form 8.3.
Ah, apologies, johnpwh, you’ve got serious again! Yours crossed with mine.
M&G’s shareholding is 17.86%. It says so on one of the Forms (8.5 or 8.3) yesterday.
johnpwh, respectfully, if you want a break, why are you on here? This is a ChatBoard for share talk, not cars, beer & football.
My post was cut off at the end and was supposed to end: “Please spread the word via other ChatBoards.” But suggestions about writing to other major Shareholders like M&G, who I agree is key, are great. Do we do a combined petition somehow or individual letters/emails?
This is indeed bad news for Shareholders. Well done to the Daily Telegraph & Sir Iain Duncan-Smith for raising the profile of this yesterday.
Those who invested in Bacanora at 40-60p+ were taking a risk for a reason: if it paid off, their risk would be rewarded with a big payday. That’s how investing in AIM stocks & fledgling companies works. A return of c.50% (for those who risked their hard-earned cash at c.45p a share) is not a just reward for such a valuable asset.
This is hugely political. President Biden & Boris recently expressed concern re China’s economic domination and monopolising key future-proofing commodities. Boris announced the UK intends to stockpile rarer metals & minerals (e.g. Lithium, Cobalt, Copper, Palladium, Rare Earth metals) as China controls much of these commodities via its owned Mines. Then look what happens! For Ganfeng, this Offer is obviously a very shrewd move. But that doesn’t mean we Shareholders should allow it to happen.
According to Shore Capital via a recent vlog, the NAV of BCN’s Sonora Mine stake is worth 200p per Share. Canaccord upgraded BCN to Buy with a Target Price of 85p on 4 Feb 2021. Extrapolating this, BCN’s SP should be 120p by end 2021, with Production starting in 2022, when we should see 200p per Share, IMO. Then, IMO, in 3-5 years (from now) as the Mine ramps up into full Production, we should see 500-650p, assuming Lithium prices don’t rocket in the meantime.
67.5p isn’t just a steal, it’s Daylight Robbery! Dick Turpin would be proud of it!
Remember, the SP hit 67.99p on 12 Jan 2021. (It hit 149p in 2018). This isn’t a fire sale; it has huge potential and is fully funded to Production.
Sure, one of the reasons it’s been made a safer investment and is fully funded is thanks to Ganfeng’s 29.99% Stake, not to mention Ganfeng’s vast experience (it is one of the top 3 global Lithium Producers), but that’s not the point. Ganfeng didn’t lend us Shareholders the money for us to invest, did it?
Personally, I don’t consider all the risk of investing in BCN worth a derisory Offer of 67.5p per Share.
One consideration: larger Shareholders may have to take a one-off hit on CGT as a result of this Offer, rather than spreading their gains across several years and benefiting from CGT Allowances. If this takeover is to happen, at least Shareholders should make sure their gains are worthwhile.
It may well be we’ll see a higher Offer from Ganfeng – ultimately c.200p per Share. G4S’s Board was successful recently in fending off Gardaworld’s initial low Offers; finally obtaining a much better Offer. Entain’s Board more recently rejected an Offer from MGM Resorts because it didn’t represent Entain’s full value. But the way the RNS is worded implies BCN’s Board is going to recommend Ganfeng’s initial Offer. So, we Shareholders may be on our own.
I will be Voting AGAINST Ganfeng’s Offer. I encourage every other Shareholder to do likewise. If you agree, please spread the word