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Https://invezz.com/news/2023/11/23/easyjet-share-price-slips-after-a-key-warning-by-jet2/
It has to be said that easyJet and Jet2 are very different. Apart from the obvious difference in regional exposure Jet2 is very holiday focused in it's destinations easyJet is very well established in the expat and city routes.
Ultimately though there is very little competition if the traveller is committed to one destination or departure airport.
As an example I often fly Malta to Luton. Only choice is Ryanair. Gatwick is too far from my final destination for easyJet. Air Malta Gatwick and Heathrow but they are at least 50+% more expensive. So on the Malta Gatwick route there's no competition within the price bracket. This is a big expat route as lots of Maltese and British families cross over. Often it's around £200 in the summer and £30-40 in the winter on a two week prior booking. This year though that £30-40 is £40-80.
In my opinion I don't think that people contemplating a winter sun holiday give a thought to Israel or Egypt tensions. It's just not on their radar.
Global events are never supportive and are constant and ongoing. There is never an event of nothing to report it's always something. This is how the media has a purpose and a livelihood. They will always be ratcheting up the stress levels.
The flying public are extremely resilient and talk of conflict won't stop them going. They are targeting+15% in Q1 that will be a substantial step if they can achieve that. Last year a £133m loss in Q1 they year before £213m. This year £10-20m would be an outstanding achievement.
are you completely ******ed.
of course there will be a drop in demand and cheaper prices. this is why easyjet make a winter loss and a summer profit. yes it cheaper to fly to the sun out of season, it's also cheaper to stay in a hotel out of season. funny that, it's nothing new it's the same every year.
so the bit about inflating results is simply that they may run advertising campaigns based on price......yes they do all the time. why are they trying to boost the figures on paper. what does that mean. they are simply following their business model. h1 winter will lose money h2 will make money. the goal is to lose less and win more which they will do this year.
It could dip no matter what they say. I guess that the trigger date for the dividend is in January or February. I am most interested in the post period trade and bookings up to Easter.
I see higher prices compared to last year and planes full. If that's confirmed then whatever the share price does just buy quality as it will result in due course in revenue and profit increases.
I am hoping Q1 when reported in January shows a 10-20m loss continuing the rapid progress from this time last year.
The discounted seats are extremely limited. You try and book one.
So are you accusing the management of dishonesty by "trying to inflate the bookings"
You are going to have to explain that as I can see some legal issues here immediately.
If you feel that the management are not disclosing the real figures then you need to report it.
I can only say what I see. Three easyJet flights in 3 weeks. All almost full and two booked within two weeks of flying at prices well over what I paid this time last year.
Despite apparently being updated recently it's well out of date.
"Due to its unprofitable status, analysts aren’t forecasting easyJet to pay a dividend this financial year"
hmm I guess ready to update was too difficult.
Who would have guessed that we may see an increase in respiratory infections in the winter. Of course people are getting sick. Our Roma hotel had around 30% of staff on sick leave two weeks ago so something was clearly working it's way through Rome. I guess that wasn't a news story however China certainly is.
I just see risk in tampering with my holding. Yes the market ebbs and flows often with little connection to reality and can move in mysterious ways. However a broad trend has to be adopted ignoring weekly movement.
Given the very real change in circumstances for this business over the last 12-18 months and the expectations conveyed by the company for the current year to be doing anything other than trending up seems to be unrealistic.
I have an 18 month window here and I believe that I will see strong growth and a couple of dividends.
Agreed however the requirements for funding were very visible. Since the post COVID highs the company has delivered real recovery that is not at all reflected in the share price. The rapid progress in the easyJet holidays product especially but also in other areas of business.
It's one thing to talk the talk but to walk the walk is a different challenge. They seem to be well on the way and this year I believe that we will see substantial growth despite the economic disasters of the UK.
They are evidencing success and flagging more ahead but the market is not yet interested.
Looks very cheap to me
Yes it doesn't seem to reflect the very positive information at hand. It's clear that Airlines and especially Airlines that assemble packages are doing very well. It's clear that bookings for the important periods will be up, prices will be up and profit will be up.
However the immediate challenge ahead for easyJet is to reach winter parity. Not just covering costs through the losing period but doing so whilst retaining key staff and offsetting Summer human risk.
My thoughts are to be a buyer when the share price doesn't see what's actually happening because somewhere down the road it will have to rerate to reasonable levels. Although I see no reason for the share price to be below post COVID highs it's so far from anything that makes sense it will take a real change in investor attitude to see seismic shifts.
It's not difficult to see how the prices are going. Much stronger than last year from what I can see. I have flown myself several times in the last few weeks on almost full flights so it's likely that they were sold out with a few no shows.
They have a robust business in a recovering sector set for substantial revenue growth. I fully expect the share price to trend up over the next 12 months.