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Https://www.airliners.de/billigflieger-easyjet-weitet-pauschalreise-angebot-deutschland/71240
The best way to view it is by the market capitalisation.
hTTps://companiesmarketcap.com/easyjet/marketcap/
Here it can be seen that the current capitalisation is very modest. They could buy back shares but it would not make a credible dent in the 450m in my opinion.
I agree. Easyjet has a substantial opportunity to capitalise on a very strong trading environment. Oil is not weighing on the margins, Europe has become accepting of the current conflicts and seemingly the disaster of the UK economic situation isn't stopping "essential" spending. Holidays are essential according to research.
My experience in the hospitality sector in Southern Europe supports that more people are coming and the overwhelming majority come on budget airlines.
Of course it will go down and up but the business has made substantial progress with no weight on the share price. This has to change because it's extremely visible.
People ride the easyJet seats every day and can see how the routes are doing.
Easyjet makes a loss every winter. I guess to counter that they could charge more for luggage and reduce frequency but the reality is that low cost needs volume.
However the rest of the year it does very well. That's not just on the cost of each flight but on the volume of flights.
Q1 they are carrying 4% of their routes due to the Israeli invasion of Gaza. I see little disruption for Egypt moving forward so the 4% will be reduced. There's always something causing problems but despite that easyJet are aiming at £1bn profit. That's a lot of sausage rolls
I think that we'll see the current trend continue for a long time yet. £5-6 is within the horizon and I think that a more realistic price will look attainable at that Point.
The current value is partially disconnected from the commercial reality but totally disconnected from the opportunity for significant growth.
Much of the luggage cost is the handling of the hold luggage. However if you want these things then you have to pay for them. On other airlines you pay for them even if you don't need it or want it. It's much more annoying to think that the airline is charging you for something that you don't even want. It's all about choice.
The flights are much too cheap.
Recently I had to drive from Malta to the UK. It cost me €800 one way in ferries, fuel and tolls. It took 2 days. I could have flown for €30.
The cost of the luggage is not an extra, it's certainly not a rip off. It simply means that those who want something have to pay for it. What good is "free" luggage if you don't want it. It's not an extra if you were always going to take luggage and it's a saving for those that don't.
People aren't annoyed about the luggage costs or the charge for better seats it's just a matter of choice.
One has to think about the amount of luggage they actually need. This massively reduces the weight of luggage per seat. That weight has benefits for the environment and fuel burn.
Easyjet are so well placed to deliver, the share price doesn't even start to reflect the commercial opportunity that they have.
That helps explain the flat Q1 because it's contrary to the evidence that I see across the range of routes that I monitor. Israel and Jordan are well off my radar
I was hoping for a 10-20m loss Q1. We wait and see how it ends but 80m is a chunk to absorb.
The guidance was £440m to £460m so £455m is well in that range. Very few negatives in the results and no real surprises. Ultimately this is only going to trend one way. Maybe not today but this is definitely going up. Short term £4.50 is very achievable in my opinion. Into next year £5-6 is within reach given the information.
The oil price looks steady in the current range and JP Morgan expects $83 as the average price for 2024. I think that we'll see under that with OPEC potentially tampering with underfilled quota. This could see actual production rise as unfilled quota becomes traded or reallocated.
So easyJet looking set.
Https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/china/mysterious-china-pneumonia-outbreak-illness-b2453599.html
So no volcano disaster and the new health threat from China is just seasonal cold and known nasty bugs.
Any other nonsense to worry about. News stories about bad news sells media good news is rarely mentioned.