Member Info for WolfofWarks

Take a look at the balance sheet. CINE will never be able to trade their way out of this hole.

Cinema is a dying industry, not just because of streaming but because if all the other entertainment on offer now on a Saturday might, cheap restaurants, etc, because of the quality of the home entertainment systems combined with the streaming services, the poor quality of films and pumped out franchise model.

Look at the debt, look at the forward lease obligations, looks at the free cash flow. If you think CiNE can overcome that then I’ll have some of what you’re smoking my friend.

“ Do you seriously think the banks are going to wave goodbye to six billion. Not a chance”

This is what happens in this situation. The creditors realise they are unlikely to get their capital back and then it becomes a case of what % is the haircut and what can they rescue.

If the media speculation is true it looks like the attempts at talking to the creditors about deleveraging the balance sheet have failed miserably.

Yes good for trading, not a long term hold.

I’ve learnt a lot this year myself and now try to avoid anything with too much debt and high short interest. It’s a recipe for disaster.

I’ve stopped speculative AIM shares as well having lost money on a number of occasions. On HE1, SNG, etc.

Learn how to read a balance sheet.

Vital when investing that you can analyse a profit and loss and balance sheet, not be an expert but at least understand the very basics.

One look of the 2021 accounts should have been enough to tell you where this was heading.

Good luck all.

That's the whole point of catching the bounce though.

If you're in any doubt have a look at the balance sheet 31/12/21.

That was nearly eight months ago and current liabilities were £1b more than current assets.

Think the market cap is around £80m so not sure how BH would finance a takeover considering they would have to buy it at a premium to todays price.

If this was going into administration you would buy in a pre pack not before and have your veal up wiped out.

There would basically be a fire sale and that’s how BH picked up Debenhams, Burtons, etc, and is how a Mike Ashley has grown his empire.

5 years seems a long writing down period for tech.

Surely it will be obsolete before then.

I’m no expert by any means but I’ve had a fair amount of experience with accounting/financing for data centres.

The dividend was suspended while the takeover was going through and they haven’t been recommenced yet.

That really only matters if you’re an index investor.

Most of the US growth is a handful of tech companies which have been given a huge haircut this year with the exception of Apple.

The us values companies too high that don’t actually make any money but are allowed to rumble on year after year.

Hi Poor - hope you are well.

I don't think it was ambiguous at all mate. Serious dilution on the way - the debt holders have the reins here and they are owed £5bn and the company is worth £120m.

The company are telling you that without a serious balance sheet reorganisation they are going to have difficulties with liquidity in the next three months, ie pre November when they hope the slate will be better.

You can dress it up anyway you want but that is what the RNS is basically saying.

Think of it from the position of the debt holders and landlords. CINE has a market cap of £120m after today. Debts of £5b and forward lease commitments of £3.5bn.

How much of a haircut are are they going to have to take and the CINE shares they will receive are a pittance of what they are owed, even after existing shareholders have been wiped out.

"a) Cineworld does not have an immediate liquidity crisis"

That's not what the RNS is telling you.

These lower levels of admissions are due to a limited film slate that is anticipated to continue until November 2022 and are expected to negatively impact trading and the Group's liquidity position in the near term.

They should really call it what it is, a rescue package.

Yep sadly this is a mix of high debt, high interest environment, tough covenants and a declining product so no guarantee of steady cashflow let alone growth in order to service that debt. That's before you start factoring in all the legal problems as well.

It's a deadly ****tail that for me is most likely to end in total wipeout.

My post didn't age well .....

Even if they put interest rates up more they are still relatively low by historic standards. One of the concerns for me would be cost inflation outstripping price inflation and eroding margin. The beauty of this share is that there is a shortage of houses especially at the more affordable end which is our sweet spot.

I bopught my house from Persimmon using the HTB scheme nearly seven years ago and persimmon were very slick. The house is a throw up lego house and there after sales service isn't so great but they were extremely slick getting it all through.

If the Zoopla algorithms are to be believed I'm up around £80k.

I’m banking on PSN being okay being at the more affordable end.