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If and only if FED reduce the mass of circulating Dollars in the economy. For sometime now third world countries don’t accept few fiat currency for their finite resources !!!!

Peru copper output up nearly 2% in October as Antapaccay surges

Tue, 12th Dec 2023 01:55Thomson Reuters

They extended from 450p downwards. No volume is attached to them. You can see them clearly at 1 minute bar chart. Couldn’t attach the graph photo here. What are these? Who is buying?

It looks that Federal Reserve will continue its policy of tightening through raising interest rates until it achieves price stability. Thus putting pressure on rising metal prices. imo

We could see a reversal wave of mining and energy share prices this week (Tuesday for LSE) because of few fundamental factors: 1. Going exdividend on Thursday 2. Fed Reserve was modestly hawkish on inflation. 3. Collapse of a government coal mine in Vietnam. 4. Louisiana oil refinery fire. 5. An oil leakage in one of Iranian pipe line in the Gulf. Share price of Glencor could reach £475p. If other factors remain the same. imo.

Jackson Hole symposium might bring some bad news on rising interest rates and other deflationary measures to fight inflation. Or in better wording: to reassert price stability for devalued major currencies. Which gold price will come first $2050 or $1850 after the symposium? imo. $1850.

If central bankers at Jackson Hole meeting on 24 August decide to go on deflationary policy, then we might see a 25% drop in key commodity prices in 6-8 weeks afterwards. WTI crude oil might drop to $60 a barrel and Copper might reached $2850 a ton. imo

If the story of tha short gambler is true. It might be seen as dovish for the market in general. Because market forces worked against the big money gambler and kept the market artificially high till the expiration date of his put position. Now the cleared that huge put position, they has started a bearish attacks and forcing retail investors and "others" out of their long position and collecting cheap shares for the next boost of bullish market. Long life Market Forces. I said if the tale of put options gambler is true!!?

On the Reuters report on demand and supply for minerals needed for EV and Green Energy production. There will be an excess of demand over supply. However bullish metal prices might be confounded by high interest rates. Any drop in current high interest rates might push higher the current bullish trend in copper and other metals. IMO.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/miners-face-considerable-challenges-meeting-demand-us-climate-law-study-2023-08-15/

It looks like a strong one till the end of next week. Resources sector are affected most.

I agree. Real figures might be worse than estimated forecast.

What if that happens tomorrow?! My estimate is well above analyst concensus : total earnings estimated at $153.588 B. Well above forecast of $125.188. EPS is $0.798, which is more than forecast of 0.43. Could be wrong by 10% less, but still above the forecast. What is your estimated figures?!!

There is a new twist in the Ukrainian war that might affect oil and other commodity prices: Ukrainian sea drones attacked an oil tanker by WSJ.

My estimate on less production and prices combined assumption of 40% from 12/2022 earning is: total earnings estimated at $153.588 B. Well above forecast of $125.188 for H1 2023. EPS is $0.798, which is more than forecast of 0.43 for H1 2023. Financial figures are from investing dot com web site. The resulted figures are on assumption of 25% drop in total production and 15% of price drop, combined effect roughly of 40% drop in earnings and EPS.

The trust of investors in Glen is related to diversification of it metal mining where they manage to add successfully oil and gas exploration and marketing. Glen has managed to get through the down and ups of oil during COVID 19 pandemic. Now with the Ukrainian war there is pressure on metals and oil prices to the upside.

Any updates on Glencore CEO Gary Nagle speech to Teck share holders yesterday in Toronto.

Glencore CEO Gary Nagle is flying to Toronto to meet with some Teck shareholders today,Thursday, to personally lobby them to support the deal. It would be lunchtime Toronto, when London markets are closed. However I believe we will get a report on this meeting tonight and would have enough time to digest its details.

Industrial metal commodities are rising on demand and lower dollar : DJ Commodity Industrial Metals (DJCIIM)

Tomorrow, “Exclusive: Glencore CEO to meet Teck shareholders in Toronto in bid for deal support” by Reuters.

Towards the end of next week (April) Glencore price will rise to 520p. It might touch 537p. First resistance is its 3 months moving average of 495p. It built a good support at 440p. If of course other conditions of banking troubles are stabilised.