Member Info for willz94

Thanks ISA. That point leads on to my next around my longer term target and valuation of Thor.

Multi-jurisdiction in Africa production of 300koz and paying a dividend would closely resemble Perseus Mining which currently trades between a 7-9 PE. 300koz with a conservative gold estimate in 2030 of say $3000 with usual tax and royalties would put a GBP market cap valuation of £1.5bn. The fact we pay a dividend as we enter what could be considered our growth phase from junior to mid tier miner really sets this up as a fantastic dividend compounding growth stock for my portfolio.

Few posts incoming form me today, to share my thoughts in regards to valuation. First being our valuation and how I see our valuation changing when we have increased reserves on paper at Segiola.

Firstly, we are not Soley AIM listed, we are TSX listed and thus I will look for peers on both exchanges.

In our current position as a single jurisdiction African gold producer, assuming max multiple can be equal to number of years remaining on paper and stockpiled, ill assume 5 x PE can me be roof (as im assuming first point of call will be a 2-3 year increase to resource).

Our closest peers in my opinion would therefore be Orezone Gold and Robex Resources operating in Burkina Faso and Mali respectively. In my opinion Mali is higher risk than Nigeran and whilst I would say Nigeria is on par or better than Burkina Faso many would say we sit in the middle of these two jurisdictions in terms of risk.

Both produce more gold per year than Thor currently does at around 130-140koz per year, however, both have AISC considerably greater than Thor. Both trade within a 5-7x PE.

If we put a ceiling on Thors valuation as a single jurisdiction mine, with 5 years of gold in total (likely going to grow and grow) I think a 5x PE is perfectly reasonable. Bearing in mind, I’m not taking into Douta PFS, increase dividend (neither of those peers pay one I believe). I will follow up today with my opinion of PFS value and how I see this share trading longer term when Ivory coast also comes into play.

I think the segiola resource update will more likely be 3 years initially ontop of current reserves with continues exploration to increase further and continually.

I also am not expecting this till after the pfs. I’m also more bullish, I think Q4 figs and pfs could take us to 85-90 and resource update, divi increase and Ivory Coast maiden over £1

Potentially 4 rns but 2 guaranteed

1) Q4 trading update

2) douta pfs

3) segi resource upgrade

4) random drill results

Indeed AISC, although with the way the world, investing in submarines wouldn’t be the worst idea haha

The interest will flow through when there is a longer reserve on paper and that will come from the pfs as there’s enough in Nigeria to get us through to douta production, and from the resource extension, both due this Q.

Fully expect Q4 results to turn some heads given the extra bars held over to sell and over 4k gold average, paired with the low ASIC.

The dividend increase will also get some attention just like it did last year

Always smart to manage your portfolio within your own risk tolerance. Not sure how this could get cheaper with the announcement of economics 10+ year gold mine mind!

On the takeover point, endeavor mining posted on the 12th of December its target of 12-15m of resource discovery in the next 5 years, I think the easiest way of hitting that especially for a quick return on the discovery would be to buy out companies like Thor when they have multiple mines producing or in DFS stage.

I’m over exposed aswell, I hold around £165k, but I was in so early I’m treating it like a pension/retirement fund. I think by the time 2030 comes and we have 3 mines in play I should have a tax free dividend coming from it that will either allow me to retire at 36 or I keep working and investthe dividend elsewhere to diversify. I just see nothing with the kind of value and see it was such an opportunity, plus I’m young and ballsy so I’m happy to take the risk.

There’s enough in the current life and stockpile to already ensure no gap in production to douta

Anything over 3500 with our ask is still crazy

IDE say95% given current gold price, cash in bank, enough for masses of drilling and plenty to pay capex on douta, he said he will be evaluating the dividend for full year results, at this rate THx may end up with what looks like a progressive dividend policy (due to the gold price) and masses of growth potential

On a separate note BristolLover, do you follow the OTC pink sheet trades often? Keen to understand how they valued the trades to give the 81-89p day, that’s quite the premium on the tsx and aim close price

Sorry capex quoted was 250-300m

Whilst I agree my main point was around what we already have at segi and how we can release value at a likely higher gold price when we get the update for there in Q1.

I still think douta will be highly accretive given our current valuation , it’s still 10 + years without the additional exploration with a capex of 350m and we already have the cash portion of this in the bank. Targeted first pour in 2028, that in itself is not far out by which point we will more than likely have a pfs for our first Ivory Coast licence.

I think even with low expectations, at our current market cap it’s hard to see how this will not be well received.

A run to 4700 looking likely for gold now. If it comes by march are forward numbers are looking insane, with the resource upgrades at segi it would be hard not to assume a forward PE of say 4? Given we are still in Africa, otherwise ide say 6-7 could have been in the cards.

So let’s assume 95000 oz and a $1k asic while they get douta up, that’s what $351m so say a 4 multiple were looking at a 1.92nb cad market cap.

So let’s hope this has been tied down due to resource on paper and we get a nice update about segi and gold price by the end of Q1.

Timid I agree with some of the points but not all.

I agree on paper we only have 2 years but we know that’s there’s years coming from satalites/underground but also the now feasible oz around the open pit. We just need that announcement in Q1

On the location part there will also be an element of that risk priced in, but you cannot really compare Nigeria to the likes of Mali in my opinion, it really is like comparing an eagle to a pigeon.

With exchanges point I would argue that the TSX is the correct exchange for a miner, the aim on the other hand not the best, but we have the market cap to potentially change that in the near future.

As most have said, it just takes patience, mid to long term this is a Golden play, pun intended

Whilst ambitious .. value this at current cash flow with a multiple of similar peers, then do the same for thx with douta and then the same with Ivory Coast , 6x would be very much on the cards. iMO we should be 2x on current fcf but there are people holding back on what segi has on paper

Anyone who likes trendlines, pendants and patterns. Gold is looking very nice on the 4 hourly, could see a new ATH to 4400 before year end. If we get a pullback from there and trade in a nice range, the setup will start looking very similar to the April -September setup this year, and we alllllll loved what happened in October

The market cap is now less than they paid for gocompare, gocompare has grown since acquisition despite results suggesting a hard year. GoCompare is a cyclical business and likely going to benefit again for the next few years. very very very likley that PE will be sniffing round now, hold for a small period while the cash generation pays back the investment, repackage and sell parts.