RE: AI Valuation5 Jul 2026 17:37
Asked Chatgpt what ROSGEO could be worth based on what we know, four of the nine mines have had work done to find out whats there. As expected a lot relies on easing of sanctions which we all know, I am very confident the day that sanctions/exit taxes get removed is not too far away.
What we also know
ACF Equity Research excluded Rosgeo entirely from its DCF valuation, despite noting that a peer-multiples approach implied a resource value of more than US$10 billion, subject to JORC conversion and other assumptions.
That tells us two things:
Rosgeo clearly has the potential to be worth a very large amount.
There is too much uncertainty to simply add that theoretical value to the company today.
My estimate of a realistic sale value
If sanctions eased sufficiently for the JV to proceed and a strategic buyer acquired the Arctic assets, I would value Rosgeo something like this:
Scenario
Rosgeo contribution
Conservative
10–15p/share
Base case
20–30p/share
Strong outcome
30–40p/share
Exceptional
40–60p+/share
Why I think 20–30p is the most realistic range
The positives are substantial:
Four deposits already have feasibility studies and approved reserves.
Existing engineering work reduces development risk.
The deposits are adjacent to Monchetundra, creating infrastructure synergies.
EUA would control 75% of the JV.
The district contains over 100 Moz PtEq, making it globally significant. �
Investegate +1
However, a buyer would still discount for:
Russian-code resources versus JORC resources.
Development capital still required.
Remaining technical work on some deposits.
Political and jurisdictional risk (even after sanctions ease).
My overall view today
If I were valuing EUA for a strategic sale after meaningful sanctions easing, my own framework would be:
Asset
Realistic sale value
NKT
20–25p
MT
10–15p
Nyud
2–4p
Rosgeo
20–30p
Total: 52–74p/share.
If Rosgeo proved easier to monetise than expected and buyers competed for the assets, I could see the Rosgeo contribution moving towards 35–40p/share, pushing total value into the 70–90p/share range.
Given what is publicly known today, I think 20–30p per share is the most defensible estimate for Rosgeo's contribution to a successful transaction, with meaningful upside if the remaining five assets are advanced further or if a strategic buyer places a premium on creating a district-scale mining operation.
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