Member Info for Wigwammer

CF66 - likely to be that this site uses the change in mid price (diff between bid and ask) and yahoo uses difference in last traded price. Can take your pick as to which you think better reflects reality. ATB :)

Thanks S2, so distance to market has little bearing on prospective returns as sanbio and codiak suggest, and there is a bunch of other stuff you deem relevant but don’t know about. Genuine thanks mate :)

Surprised2 - any insight into how sanbio, another specialist in stem cell research for stroke, can have amassed a market cap of $4bn prior to getting a product to market? Genuine question and I look forward to a knowledgable and in depth response :)

My guess is it will take significantly longer than 4 years to move from preclinical to market. But I agree - a significant length of time. But how long did Codiak stakeholders have to wait before realising the value of their preclinical assets? No time at all. Hope that helps :)

Hi British - I don’t think anyone remembers you making a 3p prediction. ATB :)

IRC +30% overnight. Pog sustaining gains. Those with 3p targets looking increasingly naive, along with any doubters who acted on their bearishness. Happy to discuss as always :)

Thanks Cadbury. Interesting that such high levels of cash were paid upfront for preclinical assets. Demonstrates the high levels of interest and immediate reward that can be realised for interesting assets in the area. Evident from yesterday’s rns that rene’s assets are drawing interest, and in the proactive interview Hunt speaks of a number of potential deals in the area. Rene at £5 was an easy short, Rene at 50p requires some nous :)

Gold approaching $1300 and irc +20% or so. Coming together nicely. It appears the 3p entry target made by one or two here is looking increasingly naive. Happy to discuss :)

Kenj, I did not suggest your comments were directed at me - this is a discussion board involving more people than just you. If you don’t understand why perspective and sentiment are important when it comes to investment then i suggest you look up “behavioural finance”. You repeatedly present facts and opinions that cast a negative light on the investment. The bias probably tells us more about your position in the stock than it does about pog. The fact is - the price of gold has risen recently. Here is another fact for you - the price of gold could drop back again, OR it could rise further. That is not being positive or negative or bias - but realistic. Hope that helps :)

Some perspective... just the recent move in gold price from $1200 to $1250 adds a cumulative $175m+ to ebitda over 7 years.... yet no mention here! That’s the state of sentiment.. GLA :)

Seasons greetings one and all. Just putting it out there - but if they can refinance now with net debt effectively at $800m, why do people think they will have difficulty refinancing in 6 years time when net debt will likely be much lower? Prior to this week, many of the doubters were suggesting that the main impediment to the story was legal confirmation of the refinancing. Now that is resolved they move onto some other detail. I accept that owning shares in a highly leveraged Russian gold producer with a dodgy iron ore subsidiary might not be everyone’s bag - in which case - sell your shares cos that isn’t gonna change any time soon. But for those who believe the equity valuation reflects the high debt, and that pox plus leverage of asset base gives them a decent chance of getting the net debt down - it’s been a pretty good week and the story looks better into 2019. GLA IMO :). ps I suspect several of the doubters are the same person - just sayin’.

Tbh I have never expected or worried that IRC will be in able to make the payments. I simply accept that they won’t, that the guarantees will remain, and that pog will pay. In that sense, the second bridging loan is likely to become BAU - third, fourth, fifth etc.. The point is - if you believe in the pox and growth story and targets - they can manage this load. The principal/interest on the IRC debt will be around $35m pa - to put that into perspective - they are making an additional $25m pa just because the pog has risen from $1200 to $1250. By the time the second tranche bullet payment is payable in 2026, they will have had 7 years to mature the pox and the reserves. It looks like a workable plan, and (I believe) is now legally enforceable assuming it gets shareholder approval. I feel better about pog today :)

Personally I think IRC have zip chance of substantially paying off the debt, though I would like to be proven wrong. The point for me is that even assuming pog take on the entire debt, they should generate sufficient cash to support the commitments assuming they hit target, and over the coming years debt will be turned into equity. Hopefully now, shareholder approval is something of a formaility, and newsflow can focus on the pox ramp up and improving cash generation. GLA IMO :)

While I agree, we are unlikely to see data before 2020, I believe the market will get more excited as we get closer to read out. The pattern with Immupharma was that post a final issue at 27p, a year before the trial result, the shares steadily rose to peak at around 180p. I use Immupharma as an example because their phase 3 in lupus was similarly novel and impacting a substantial market. Both scib1 and modi1 are potential breakthroughs in large blockbuster markets, and while they are earlier in clinical development, they are in an area where deals are made at a relatively early stage. Immupharma didn’t partner lupuzor for the recent phase 3 either - but it didn’t stop the market significantly rerating the stock as the result approached. Fingers crossed the trial result here is better than over there - but the point I’m making is significant returns can be made in the run in, it is not all about the result at this stage IMO. Risks here for me - they appear to be downplaying GC significance and there is possibility of further trial delays. But given they are approaching 2019 with the possibility of 3 trials commencing, one would hope some progress will be made in the clinic. GLA

Yes yes ruck - it’s based on hope rather than certainty, as are many things in life. We are all “hoping” together. Lovely. The point of my post was to shed some light, or trigger some discussion, about the nature or degree of the uncertainty.

Risks and scenarios. The board appear to be downplaying expectations for the GC, and having delayed the scib trial one can fear they may do it again. But even under this scenario (which I consider improbable), what is the outcome? First, they retain the £5m they would have spent on scib1 and reinforce the balance sheet. Second, they consolidate the chances that the first clinical moditope trial is funded to completion. In the days running up to the moditope result - the first clinical readout of one of the most promising preclinical cancer discoveries in history , 12-18 months from now, I can see the market cap north of £200m - it is a unique and exciting story and is likely to capture the imagination of the market. Regarding trial risk itself - a different type of uncertainty and a different level of return - but there may well be fun and games played out before we get there :)

justdriftin - the hope lies in the prospect that 2019 and onwards looks better. Based on management forecasts below and current gold price, I guess they are going for $250m+ ebitda pa and $100m+ net debt reduction pa. If they can do that over next 5 years then shareholders will likely be well rewarded. But all depends on them getting IRC refinancing completed on suitable terms. “Outlook -- Significant reductions in production costs in 2019 due to advanced stage technical improvements in the Malomir flotation flowsheet, resulting in the Malomir flotation concentrate grades increasing by c.50% from c.24g/t to c.36-40g/t and a corresponding c.40% decrease in concentrate yields -- 2019 gold production guidance of approximately 500,000oz -- 2019 Full Year Total Cash Costs(u) expected to be within the range of US$650-700/oz -- 2020-2022 production outlook is currently expected to be within the range of 500,000 - 550,000oz per annum, based on the current mineral reserves base and not taking into account geological exploration potential””

I think it’s unlikely. I suspect pog will eventually be on the hook for the $200m and IRC will be mothballed for the foreseeable future. However, if pog meet the targets set by PM there should ultimately be enough to keep both the banks and pog shareholders happy. But it’s still a big IF! GLA

Kenj, if they can add to the cash balance at the clip of $100m pa then I’m not sure the market will give two hoots whether they pay the debt down or just reduce the net debt. And actually, the best the company can probably do is reduce net debt down to circa $500m over 2-3 years where at a 2x net debt:ebitda number the balance sheet will look pretty efficient. I’d guess from there pog could pay a $50m div, at least double covered by free cash. I will leave you to estimate where the share price would be in that scenario (hint: a bit more than 6p). ATB

I should add - if I worked for the Russian bank considering refinancing IRC with a pog guarantee in place, I would be encouraged by the point that the pox plant works. In fact, the delay into mid December is quite possibly linked to the point that they wanted to see pox working before they sign it off. With only a week or two separating the pox commissioning date and finalisation of the debt refinancing, that would seem like a sensible thing to do.