You are quite right Mcatee. Sequential guidance for h2 EBITDA is $40m+, and given further recovery in day rates since this forecast was given, additional contract news, and oil strength, we are likely looking at $80m as a very conservative base for 2022. This is precisely why the market has materially lifted the stock price in recent months on decent volume - the necessity of further dilution is receding and if it does go ahead, there will be greater appetite to get exposure. Some piled in at 3-4p. Others did not. The market is the final arbiter here. ATB :)
Not much point arguing with the closed minded, but worthwhile reminding them of the score. Since the monotonous rants started, the market has moved the shares 50% higher on decent volume. Happy Christmas everyone :)
“Monotonous rants”.. indeed.. Perhaps amtech’s credibility would be enhanced if he at least attempted to understand why the market has moved 50% against him on high volume, rather than just blindly repeating the same words each visit. ATB
Could it just be Montanaro selling the last of their holding? FSJ will likely be a small position for them and perhaps a new FM just wants rid. They had 1.47m shares left at end of November. Looking at volumes, I’d guess there has been around 2m traded since then, so should be a long way through it by now. Perhaps FSJ are looking to raise money, but examining the financials I really don’t think they need to - covenants frequently get broken - doesn’t mean lenders will enforce nasty measures if they are confident they are lending against a decent business. And this looks like a decent and diversified business IMO
I have been saying similar things since the 3p cash raise, investhome. A couple of things I would add is that the local tax rates are very low - running into just a few percent, and that the fleet is fully owned, with management expecting fairly low levels of maintenance capex to be required in the coming years, amounting to circa $10m pa. Both of these things support the ability of the company to generate high levels of FCF into recovery, and consequently borrow at higher multiples of EBITDA. ATB
https://masterinvestor.co.uk/evil-diaries/evil-diaries-oil-in-your-palm/
There there amwrong.. if all you do is sit on a chat board and post negatives then OF COURSE you are discouraging people from buying. Poor advice. You got it wrong. Anyway, keep building the wall of worry, has done wonders for my share account so far :)
The valuation of the ords still makes little sense - way undervalued. They were trading 150p+ prior to covid, since when palm oil prices have roughly doubled and reported net debt has fallen from $209m to presently somewhere below $175m, and with a vastly improved outlook. Much more to go for, IMO.
Lol. All you have done all the way up is repeat the same boring message about the potential $50m raise. The chances of any interested reader not knowing about it is practically zilch, thanks to you repeating it several hundred times. Yet the shares have leapt around 50% regardless. Where did you go wrong? If you are going to post on the board of a stock you don’t own then at least get it right, or say something new, or add some mirth to proceedings. The only thing amusing about your repetitious worry is how entirely misplaced it has been in understanding the direction of the shares. ATB
Given Amtech was discouraging people from buying at 3.8p - and has consequently been shown to have the touch of an ape - I can only assume the market is getting ready to give him another good slap! Let us know when you jump onboard amtech, I suspect you’ll be just as good a contrarian indicator on the sell side.. :)
The cash position is a really positive surprise at £8m+ when you include the near cash financial assets. That should give them at least another 2 years to get the ball rolling with Cameron, and possibly others. Positive surprises are that turnover is higher than I expected (shouldn’t be that big a surprise given recovery in end markets and can hopefully be repeated or built on over 2022) and use of the Lombard facility. Does anyone know how how large this facility is or what the conditions are/when repayment must be made? Thanks
BioNTech itself was a small company with multiple joint ventures with large cap pharma. They all knew it’s technology, yet it remained independent. Roll on a few years and that technology has a valuation many multiples of what would have been considered reasonable back then. Same story with dozens of other small cap biotechs that “came good”. In short, I don’t think we can read very much at all into the point that BIoNTech have not (as far as we know) approached Scancell.
It appears the principal investigator appointed for the CIDP trial is something of a big hitter. 303 peer reviewed articles, involvement in 7 clinical trials over the last 15 years, elite/distinguished in multiple areas of medical science.. https://www.medifind.com/doctors/jerome-de-seze/210421637
Nobody is in any doubt about how badly the company is doing. That isn’t the point. The point is the investment case here is very different at 10p than it was at 50p. At 50p the growth dreamers were confidently buying on the back of their future growth projections, and they got it horrifically wrong. At 10p, the value investors are saying that the £20m valuation is largely covered by liquid assets like cash and inventory, before we even get to anything else (future cash flow, existing projects, fixed assets - including 75% ownership of the only privately owned gas pipeline in Morocco).