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Nice inline with 2020 update. The order book clipped up a bit since the last update.
I'm happy with that and a hopefully stable dividend.
FWIW I've just been watching Kevin Heart's surprisingly good new thriller/ comedy on Netflix and have seen a few Burberry items in it. Interesting to see, I wonder if they have some sort of product placement agreement with them?
I've also noticed the classic pattern on a few other mainstream TV shows over the last couple of weeks indicating a ticking up of popularity.
I'd buy something myself but my first car was half the price of one of their coats so I don't think I'm necessarily their target market.
I am a little surprised. I think the last time the market cap was where it is now was approx 1 year ago. We've come through a lot of permutations since then, chiefly vaccine roll out, availability, real world effectiveness, uptake, numerous now never mentioned variants etc etc. Is the current outlook as worrying as it was back then? I really don't think so. Certainly not if you're vaccinated, boosted or under 30.
There are a few risks, obviously, with this company but heavy insider ownership, high capacity forward bookings (both cruise & river cruises) confirmed in the last update and via Banbury/ looking at the website), plenty of positive reviews along with a seemingly robust insurance business gives me confidence to tuck this away for the foreseeable. I'll have another look at it in the Jan update and will buy more fund permitting.
I can only envision that it is covid related. Worst case scenario Europe and ROW locks down and Saga are back to domestic sailing or worse.
The argument against this is: what will this picture will look like in 3 to 5 months time when we're edging into spring, boosters have been administered, herd immunity is manifesting itself in the youth, saga reports on bookings and reluctant travellers are back onboard or booking. I've also read some reports that cruising has so far proved to be an order of magnitude safer than average general society in the USA for example.
Personally I've taken advantage of the weakness by averaging up and increasing my relatively sizeable holding by 25%.
My initial investment case was based primarily on the recovery trade but having delved into saga more I think it has a place as a long term hold in my portfolio. There is a particular segment of a wealthy and growing UK demographic that I believe saga cruises to an extent uniquely caters for. Those who are perhaps older and slower moving and need plenty of assistance etc. It also has a strong single traveller offering e.g. arranging various opportunities for them to meet up, travel and dine together. These factors yield sticky customers in my opinion. Plus they only have two relatively small and very new ships to fill.
It's also useful to see that management incentives are dialling up as this to me indicates that more visibility exists and that there is some reversion to business as usual. It would have been impossible to set mamy of those targets this time last year for example.
I bought a shacket off it for Safari last year. It was very good quality and I added a new word to my lexicon.
Regarding Google trends could some one please tell me exactly the context it is recording within? Is it for example in the context of total searches and the particular search terms relativitiy to them or is it relative only to total searches for that particular term?
Also I question the validity of it as a medium to gauge much in terms of performance: see asos as an example sales have more than tripled since 2015 and the trends data is clearly averaging down. Clearly the app, direct to site are the main avenues for that revenue growth? Unless. I'm missing something?
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F03gvmw7,Asos
Perhaps it's already been posted - It's hard to tell with all the muck which has been posted on here recently-
But this I believe is one of the few interviews I've read with Mahmud over the last 5 or 6 years.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9021749/amp/Boohoo-boss-Mahmud-Kamanis-pain-slave-labour-storm.html
It's with the Daily Mail and shockingly it paints him in a positive light. I sympathise with his recent loss and it seems as though he's got the message regarding the sustainability of boohoo's supply chain. Most importantly I believe it. However there are plenty of slips from cup to mouth so let's just see what the next few months to years have in store.
I'm looking forward to the impending (by the end of the year) announcement about the US distribution hub. I think that will be a real statement of their intent over there. It will be useful also in terms of boosting their overall sales capacity. Does anyone know what that is currently / into the next financial year? It was £3b the last time I checked probably a year ago?
If goverments demand a period of isolation resorts could tailor themselves to quarantine customers exclusively, perhaps with each one assigned tourists from a certain country. I'll caveat this by saying it possibly wouldn't be for me as site-seeing will go out the window but if you're ok with that then there is little reason to leave the resort anyway as pools, activities, beach and restraunts can all be offered. Many people don't leave them. This combined with rigourous testing could be a pathway out of this for tui & dart.
Though it might be a tough sell to local communities who would likely benefit less from the influx than they would if their local was a standard non-quarantine resort.