Member Info for WetWater

Margarita Man: And if I had a million dollars for every positive contribution you have made to this board, I would still be dead broke. If my comments fits, be a big boy and wear them. If not come up with something positive rather than whining and crying about something you are obviously not going to change.

Yours Truly - Wet

Tda4falcon: Wise words to this board - I only wish some on this board would read and understand!! Some need to put on their big boy pants and deal in the realities of Falcon or sell and move on to their more perfect investment.

I'm not ecstatic about our current situation but it is what it is so I either accept it and change my expectations or sell and move on. Pretty simple really. Whining and crying about an investment doesn't help anything or anybody.

Appreciate the replies guys! None of us have all the information we need at this point to make an accurate call but glad to get your ideas.

Newtofo: If these next two 3K horizontals live up to expectations they will come online at about 18-19 mmcf/d. So those two wells are going to take up most of that 40 mmcf/d contract. These will typically decline over the first 6-9(?) months to the point that a third will could be drilled to backfill the contract. After that there will be no additional pipeline capacity for add'l Tamboran gas. If that is the case, then I believeTamboran will be cutting back on drilling until the gas can be sold. Maybe Tamboran will in time give us their updated plans to address this shortage of capacity. I don't believe the next 4 3km wells will be drilled until there is a place to sell the gas - that's a lot of money tied up to wait two, three or more years to begin production. Also, not an engineer, but I don't believe Tamboran would be fracking these wells if they cannot be flared/produced.

Another option I have heard is that there is a possibility that Falcon could be merged into Tamboran. I'm not sure what I think about that, but I it's something that could pop up.

Golones: The problem I foresee with the Beetaloo is that we are going to be stuck in a holding pattern before we will receive an offer many of us will find acceptable. It's a bit of the 'cart before the horse' issue. Tamboran's production date is early 2026 - that is soon after the first two pilot wells are to be drilled. That gas will be going into the Amadeus pipeline and if memory serves me well, Tamboran has contracted a 40 mmcf/d take or pay contract with the pipeline. Doing an AI search on Amadeus Pipeline indicates that currently there is no excess capacity - I assume 'no excess capacity' allows for the contracted 40 mmcf/d but the question is just how much excess capacity above the 40 mmcf/d might there be? The pipeline's total capacity is only about 165 - 175 mmcf/d which isn't that large. The point I am getting at is that Tamboran will likely be holding up on drilling the SS5H, SS6H, SS7H wells. The SS4H will likely be drilled sometime in 2026 to backfill Tamboran's 40 mmcf/d contract as there will be a typical Marcellus decline curve over the first 6-8 months of these first two wells. Tamboran doesn't have the funds available nor the inclination to punch holes in the ground without a market for its production. Tamboran is correctly informing the market of first production in 2026, but in typical Tamboran fashion, they fail to tell the market the 'rest of the story'.

With all this said, any 2025/2026 offers for Falcon will be based on the next two-three wells and not the full 6 well pilot program. That's not saying an offer can't come at any time, but IMO, the big guys are not buying into something that is not well proven - they would rather pay-up when the field is better proven/understood.

From my understanding, the new APA proposed pipeline hasn't even begun permitting. Building a large enough capacity line to handle even the next 10 years production is going to be a major project and cost billions of dollars. We could be looking at 2027 - 2028 before that might be completed.

Bottom line is that to receive the price many of us want, we might be looking at a lot more patience - what's three more years at this point - assuming I'm still around :^) IMO, Falcon owes it to its stockholders to shoot straight on the current timeline on a proposed sale. No one can predict with certainty when a legit offer might be received, but I believe if we stockholders might potentially be looking at 2027 or 2028 before a sale, then the stockholders need to understand this as a possibility.

GLA

Marshmill/NorthernM: I had a standing order at US .09 that filled Thursday only to have a partial order at US .0875 filled on Friday. I don't know how low FOG SP goes but I can't help but pick up shares at this point knowing the potential reserves backing them up. What kind of SP response do we get on the two 3K wells to be drilled - I've given up guessing as I seem to always be wrong, but I'm convinced that in the end shares acquired at these prices will be well rewarded. GLA

Smallfish9: What did you mean with your following statement - "The only one here who benefits is the latter. Sold, done, out." I took that to mean you had sold and were done with Falcon? If so, why do you continue to provide this board with all your comments? You seem to indicate Falcon has no real practical value. If you are still invested in Falcon I apologize - Just trying to figure out which box to put you in.

NorthernMagic: I hope you caught the portion of Alex's comments regarding the IP decline rate. This was why I mentioned the other day that the IP30; IP60 and soon to be released IP90 and IP120 are very important data points to this project. The petroleum engineers - even in the US - can relate to this decline curve. They can massage these numbers and project the long term decline rate for future wells in this part of the Beetaloo Basin. From Alex's comments, word seems to be getting out about our world class shale discovery!

Smallfish: Hate to see you go but everyone has their own opinion - I respect that. As to Falcon's 'vanishingly small filament of interest' - I'm pleased that Falcon has retained not only their average 10% in the upcoming areas of development but also 22.5% of an additional 4.5 million acres. Falcon has never tried to be a production company - its goal has always been to sell its interest of this concession. As such, Falcon has managed to not only survive the last 15+ years by converting its 100% interest in the Beetaloo into a company with has no debt and has been carried for close to $300 million of drilling which has helped defined much of the aerial extent of this shale basin’s 4.6 million aces. I am in agreement with the opinion of the Australian government, the NT, Sheffield, Tamboran's and Falcon's opinion that the Beeetaloo is a world class asset that can provide Australia with many years of much needed gas resources. Yes, Falcon has been on a long tenuous journey, but it has survived to this point, closing in on its objective of selling its Beetaloo asset. Falcon no longer holds 100% of the Beetaloo but, realistically, if it did, where would the Beetaloo be today? I'm of the opinion that Falcon's ‘small filament of interest’ will offer we shareholders a nice return - good luck to you in the future - I have always appreciated your input and opinions.

LongKnife: The IP90 flow rate does in fact have a lot to do with pricing when this asset sells as it gives an early indication of the decline curve and what these next two wells will produce. I don't know where you come up with 8-9 years to sell much less .60 at the end of that extended term; hopefully we are just seeing the sarcastic side of you :^) Falcon has stated its goal to sell by the end of 2025 - POQ has given us a hopeful 18-24 months' time frame. I would look for some offers being made after these next two wells are flow tested - we may not be privy to some of those early offers but with the Beetaloo heating up they should be forthcoming.

From my 'green bars' appearing and the responses of some, I would guess Camelot must be posting some of his typical POQ bashing remarks - that's about all that guy offers which is what earned him a filter block on my account. Camelot seems stuck in that mode with nothing better to offer - why he even sticks around is beside me. Is he bigones reincarnated? Naw - bigones has a better understanding of the industry. This guy has nothing to contribute yet feels the need to be heard, just a downside of a public board.

Well, I managed to pick up a few more shares sub-US 0.10 - not a bad risk reward IMO, even if LongKnife is correct and I only double or triple today's investment over the next couple of years :^) Going into the end of the day here in the US, this latest move by Falcon seems to be pretty much of a non-event with a little over a million shares traded and the share price being down only .009 cents - well within the norm for Falcon.

I believe the Tamboran shareholders are in for a rough ride over the next few years. Carrying 47.5% of the next six wells is going to be burden - especially when one considers a pipeline to sell production will not be available for another 4 years or so. I would much rather be in Falcon's boat with little to no dilution than is Tamboran's who will be taking on many more shares in an attempt to stay afloat. With the delay of APA building out a pipeline, I support Falcon's decision to cut back on the WI rather than a further dilution of our stock which would then reduce what Falcon might receive for the balance of its 4.5 million acres.

Also, what some fail to consider is that there is still risk in stepping out with these two new 3 Km wells - we have seen faulting in other parts of the Beetaloo and there is always that potential with these longer wells- for the JV's sake, hopefully that will not come into play but with Falcon's limited funding, I would rather see them take a conservative stance on the short-term horizon and stay focused on the eventual sale. Falcon doesn't need another 1H or 2H fiasco which their new reduced WI helps avoid. Tamboran ran seismic for the SS1H well but that was on a limited area which I suspect doesn't cover the blocks for the next two long horizontals. If this is the case, that would be a little bit of a roll of the dice in this new undeveloped acreage - something Falcon doesn't need at this point.

As many already know, I am one that tends to always support our CEO and Falcon's board. They have/consider the inside facts which we are not privy. To date I have found their decisions to be sound and beneficial to the stockholders. Until proven otherwise, I will continue to put my faith in these guys - I believe we are in good hands. GLA

Contrary to what some of our finer posters might say, Philip is not known for doing stupid things. Let's see what Falcon's NR allows tomorrow. I'm betting there is a logical reason to go non-consent on 17.5% but retain a 5% interest. Maybe we will learn more about the sole-risk-clause tomorrow - could be another chess-move.

Longknife: When Falcon sells, it will receive a 'fair value' for its 1 million acres of the Beetaloo - I can't put a pin in that 'fair value', but the market will help establish that price. There will be multiple buyers interested in Falcon's acreage - let's let these bidders establish a value and see how their bids aligns with the BOD's. My point is that the valuation of Falcon's acreage will be based on a fair assessment by the market rather than a simple multiple of the current stock price.

As far as timing, I refer you to Philip's estimate of a deal being done with 18 - 24 months. That being the case, in Falcon time, that's just around the corner!

If that fair value is US $.25 - .35, so be it, I am hearing a minimum of US $.60 - and some people I put credence in go up to US $1.00 - we shall what the market thinks as pricing will be out of our hands.

Willowgrove and LongKnife: Falcon's board has always been in tight agreement with our CEO that the objective of our non-operating company is to sell its interest in the Beetaloo for what the ACREAGE IS WORTH - not based on nor having anything to do with the current stock price of Falcon. As we know, Philip is not one to prop up or hype Falcon's stock price - IMO, he could give a #hit what today's stock price might be - he has always told me, as he has many others, that you won't realize the true value of Falcon until the hammer drops. Falcon's currently depressed stock price doesn't even come close to reflecting the fair value of a 500-meter SS1H well - much less when the pilot program kicks off with its first two 3K wells to better prove commerciality. The board members are not idiots - they realize the potential value of Falcon's 22.5% of the Beetaloo - the 'largest undeveloped shale basin in the world' They are not looking to give it away for 2X-3X valuation of what, IMO, is a purposely depressed stock price - for what reason I do not know.

I agree with Newt - I suspect we will see between 6X and 10X today's stock price - that range has a lot to do with the timing of any offer received. If the next two wells come in at 18-20 mmcf/d, eyebrows will be raised across the industry, and then Falcon will begin entertaining offers which hopefully meet the board's expectations - if we make it till those two wells are completed with 90–120-day flow rates, then I will be happy that I didn't sell out for 2X - 3X of today's price as you gentlemen suggest.

GLA

805slo: I agree that if they opt out of the first well in a 6400-acre participation block they are out of that block unless they pay a penalty on that first well to get back in. Where I am unclear is what happens if they participate in the first well but not the second well - then what happens on any future well in that block i.e. - Participate in the SS2H but skip the SS3H - Can they (or newco) come back in for the SS4H, SS5H etc. without a penalty. I thought they could come back in - smallfish9 thinks not. If not, they (or newco) might be locked out of the remaining 15-20 wells on that block, which as smallfish9 points, out could be a substantial issue if Tamboran as operator wanted to focus on that block for 2-3 more years. In reality, Tamboran would likely want all the partner's capital they can garner up to develop the Beetaloo - it's going to be a tough road for them to develop even as it stands.

Smallfish9: With respect to you, that's not the way I understood the negotiated 'sole risk clause". As I understand it, Falcon needs to participate in the first well of a 6400-acre participation block. After participating in the first well in a block I am thinking that having taken the risk, they have the right to participate or not participate in any future wells in that participation block. If they don't participate in a follow-up well, I didn't think that locked them out of any future wells in that block - there might be a non-participation penalty for a skipped well? - that's where I not certain. I'm not betting any money on that last statement and will certainly defer to you until I find out otherwise. Either way, Falcon cannot be forced to participate in drilling a well if they are lacking the funds and the stock price is not advantageous to doing a raise. Falcon can let Tamboran prove up this acreage on that participation block which will in turn proves up a large amount of additional surrounding acreage which is the goal for Falcon's eventual sell - giving up production rights on a few wells or even at worse a part of a 6400 acre block would not greatly impact the final price Falcon would receive for its 1+ million acres IMO. 6400 acres sound like a lot of land but in the deep core 1 million acres there are about 150 participation blocks and then there remains all the additional shallower Velkerri B acreage which would be approximately 600 additional blocks.

FYI for those that aren't aware, Sheffield has the same sole-risk-clause with Tamboran.

I think we can all agree that Falcon will never experience drilling on another participation block as they will never get past this planned 6 well pilot program - Falcon will be on the sale block with the hammer dropped long before IMO.

Origin789 - I think the sole risk clause is something people tend to forget about. Falcon could just sit on their thumbs and let Tamboran/Sheffield drill the next two wells. They would lose their rights in the 6400-acre participation blocks but when it comes to selling the whole 1 million acres I don't think believe that would greatly impact the sales price since these two wells will further prove up the surrounding acreage.

Saying that, I suspect that Falcon will participate in at least the first well - especially since it has the 3.75 million carry available. Being that the second well will be drilled on the same pad, the only thing Falcon gives up is the future production of that one well - This needs to be verified by POQ. If the stock price is still lagging when it comes time for the next raise, then the 'sole risk clause' might be a better option than a sizable stock dilution. Philip indicated to me that of all the agreements he has negotiated, the sole risk clause is the most important and beneficial for Falcon. It ensures Falcon's ability to see this project through without being forced to raise funds at unsuitable times to drill wells.

Maybe while we are speculating, we might include Sheffield's Formentera Partners. It has been rumored that this partnership which was recently oversubscribed to for US $828 million could be used as a base vehicle for another operating company in the Beetaloo. Early speculation at this point, but with Sheffield as laser focused on the Beetaloo as he is, Formentera could spin off an operating company. Likely not much to this, but a lot of money there if the partners chose to invest in the 'largest undeveloped shale oil basin in the world'.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Formentera Partners is an energy-focused, private equity strategy founded by Bryan Sheffield and Blake London in 2020. Partners, Paul Treadwell and Stephanie Reed, joined the firm in 2021 and 2022, respectively, and together, the partners have worked closely with one another for more than a decade.

Based in Austin, Texas, Formentera responsibly acquires and optimizes producing oil and gas assets in onshore United States basins and strategically develops the assets under management. The Formentera team leverages substantial experience in operations, engineering and finance to drive continued success and utilizes strict diligence criteria, hedging, streamlined structure and new age technology to produce visible and predictable income returns.

Formentera Partners Fund II Closes Oversubscribed with $828.5 Million in Capital Commitments

Well, I'm the bid in the US at $ .105 and have only acquired 1K - no one seems to want to contribute to at this price. We'll see what the close brings.

Tsoprano: I got filled on my own 'stink' bid and have now thrown down another - let's see if someone wants to contribute to my cause. This is an interesting shakeout - for what purpose I really don't know. I would hope the board or POQ would put something out concerning the stock's weakness, but I know better :^) I'll just continue to play along.

Robroy: There also was a disappointing open on the US market this morning. Someone dumped a million shares of FOLGF, driving it down from US $.13 to US $.11.9 in about 35 minutes. The stock is now trying to work its way up a bit but what was that guy thinking?