George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
Newtofo and All: Just a rumor so just put it in your back pocket. I personally don't see how that would work with Falcon's sole risk clause (which Sheffield also has as I understand it). Tamboran's is the one on the hot seat once they move n H&P drilling rig over to the Beetaloo. They as operator are the ones on the hook to keep that rig busy. I'm pretty sure Falcon will participate in what they can afford whether that be at 22.5% or 10%. Tamboran and/or Sheffield will have to pick up the extra Falcon doesn't take. IMO it would be hard to severely damage Falcon by shorting this stock - with its minimal overhead, Falcon just sits back on the sideline if worst come to worst. In the meantime whoever shorted the stock will be watching the acreage price go up and Falcon's stock price with it - not a good strategical bet for covering at a cheaper price in my opinion.
Like I have mentioned before, I would much rather be sitting in Falcon's seat than Tamboran's - I see a real dilution risk going forward for them if the drilling in the Beetaloo gets as serious as they want to predict. Time will tell.
IMO, the real solution to the Beetaloo is going to be one or two big players such as Chesapeake or Pioneer, etc. to come in and take out Falcon and Tamboran. By the time they arrive on the scene in a couple of years hopefully Falcon price will be sitting in a better position to demand a nice price.
Not losing any sleep over this rumor.
Hmmm: I heard a disturbing rumor today that Bryan Sheffield may not be in Falcon's corner. He plays to win and wants Falcon's 22.5% share of the Beetaloo. Either he or Tamboran takes over Falcon and if Falcon doesn't play ball there will be pain put on Falcon to submit. I take that to mean through extreme shorting or some other undisclosed nefarious means.
Sheffield is reportably unhappy with the sole risk clause in the negotiations along with just flat-out wanting to control all of the Beetaloo. He and POQ may be at odds so it best Falcon and board keep their eyes wide open.
I don't want to upset this wave of positivity for Falcon. Just a rumor I thought worth repeating. Hopefully nothing to it.
Hallelujah!! Thank goodness the Beetaloo development is moving forward again. I'm still confused on the placement of the second well. The site map attached to the Tamboran link still shows the 2H and 3H wells being drilled approximately in the same place. It would be sweet if Tamboran could match the Maverick's drilling at 18 days and then skid the rig and drill the second well but in that same article link they are still saying the second well placement is 'to be determined'.
Anyway, congratulations to all - even those that assured us nothing was going to be drilled this year!
GLA
With Tamboran's aggressive planned drilling program, surely they are not going to move a well to a new locations that requires a new water bore/monitoring.
Betyar: Second your thoughts on the filter button! This guy has had nothing to offer - seems to be another one of our board trolls. Anymore, It makes me smile when I see all the green filtered banners on this board. Somehow I don’t think I’m missing out on anything important or relevant.
Operators don’t build pads and fill holding ponds with water only to watch the water evaporate and the pad grow weeds over the next months - Rest assured, we won’t miss this guy’s opinions or thoughts over the coming months. Don’t know what this guy is smoking - Bye BC.
Good Luck
Longknife: I don't have the courage to go back and see how long I have actually been in Falcon - guessing abut 10 years so to say I'm somewhat frustrated with my original 3-4 year investment is a bit of an understatement. With that said I understand and except that Falcon is a very small undercapitalized company swimming in a big pond. It has managed to stay afloat and has survived the moratorium, political uncertainty, Judge Pepper, new sets of fracking regulations and a utility company trying to be an E&P company.
The main difference in us (other than you stated 'six' figures of stock and being a brilliant small cap trader' compared to my '1000' shares and being somewhat of a dimwit :^) ) is that, IMO, I better understand the industry, understand the huge risk in this penny stock investment and appreciate the treacherous waters or CEO has guided us through these last 10 years. If we even make a buck after all these years that's about 5X - 6X my investment so I'll be happy. Personally I'm still targeting $2.00 with the longer term horizon.
I totally agree with Newtofo - Tammy runs a much greater risk of dilution than Falcon. If they drill their 300 - 500 wells - even with other E & P companies are involved - they are going to experience serious dilution issues - Sheffield is going to be fine but can Tamboran build up production fast enough to offset all the huge capital requirements? Falcon can sit back in the cat-birds seat picking and choosing where it elects to participate and when to dilute based on stock price. Even on acreage they don't participate in they will benefit from increased land values across 4.6 million acres which is the name of the game. I've been pushing POQ for several years to continue to stay in the Beetaloo and if possible checkerboard out the acreage. That didn't exactly happen but the sole risk participation he negotiated puts us in the same basic spot - it secures our future and lowers our risk.
I'm happy and content with Falcon. IMO, you and I both will look up in 3- 4-5 years and be pretty delighted with our investment in this small penny stock company.
Good Luck! Wishing I had had your insight and bought more than 1000 shares.
BC - For those that don't understand Falcon's position there are lots of disappointments in this investment. I tried to simplify this story in terms you might understand - looks like I failed.
Still wishing you the best - Sweet Dreams.
BTnatgas: Here's a new story plot for you: We have switched bus drivers - Tamboran is now driving the drilling schedules. Falcon has moved up a few seats in the bus towards the exits. After the next two free paid up rides are used, Falcon will be able to select how much they want to pay for future rides and if they want they can get on and off the bus along the way. If anyone expects Falcon to get in front of the Tamboran tour guide on these next two upcoming well reports/results that's not likely to happen as Tamboran is still the driver and will be the first to release any news to their stockholders as they see fit - possibly Falcon and Tamboran might give joint releases. Later down the line when Falcon begins paying for their own ticket, Falcon news will be more forthcoming. In the meantime you might just want to give it a big yawn and nod back off.
That's about the best new night-time story I can tell those that don't understand the pecking order of being carried.
Hardrock: The cost of rig mobilization gets back to my concern - Why would Tamboran change from drilling two wells from the existing Amungee pad with a well that has a normalized rate of 5 mcf/d to moving to separate locations for each of the next two wells. If the idea/goal is to prove commerciality/economy of drilling multiple wells from one pad, why abandon Origin's original drilling program? I'm sure Tamboran has their reasons but to my knowledge they haven't made that public.
Also quick question - can you efficiently drill a vertical shaft for a horizontal well with 4 1/2 inch casing or do you need something like 7" for the vertical bore before the well is whipped out? I would assume you would have to run a larger casing to run something like 4 1/2 " inside from the surface for the horizontal if that was drilled at a later time? Never understood the engineering behind all this. More simply stated, what's involved in turning a vertical test well into a horizontal well or is that even practical?
Thanks
Longknife: As I said the industry may not be your cup of tea. Lots of unknowns and the goal of selling out quickly to capture a little profit is not my goal. Nothing wrong with you selling out earlier if you feel uncomfortable with the risk involved.
The goal of Falcon currently is to stick around the Beetaloo long enough to prove up acreage - not build production. I don't see that changing under the current leadership of the company. Just assess your risk tolerance and act accordingly. Good Luck in whatever you decide.
Smallfish: I agree that Falcon needs to get its house in order to meet future drilling commitments if Falcon elects to participate in those future projects past 2024. IMO, right now Falcon is is good shape for the next couple of years - after that they will need funds for whatever proration units they elect to participate in. The good news is that they can not be forced into any drilling past the two $30 million dollar carry wells which should cost them about $7 million each above the carry.
Smallfish: Because initially when POQ was telling us two wells were to be drilled those wells he was referring to were to be drilled on the same pad as the Amungee NW 1H well which has already met the water bore monitoring standards.
I am somewhat puzzled as to why Tamboran changed those plans. When I first read about their 2H and 3H wells being drill in a different locations I assumed they were talking about a 3rd and 4th well being drilled AFTER the two planned Amungee wells on the NW-1H pad. Tamboran is required to drill/carry Falcon on the agreed upon $80 million carry which was to be this October's drilling program. They have also agreed to carry $30 million dollars on two additional wells to be drilled in 2023 and 2024 - those wells worked out to be a $6.75 million carry for each well. I'll be the first to admit I am somewhat confused as to when these 4 required wells will have to be drilled.
Oleo: Its impossible to argue with an illogical person.
If you think you are in poor hands with POQ do you really think all this continual *****ing and moaning over the so called spilled milk is going to change anything? You criticize Philip for not being proactive - then why don't you do something proactive yourself? That seemed to work for Darnitagain.
When you mention POQ should be more proactive in the Karoo - do you realize it was Philip that headed up a committee of oil investors/companies to try to get compromises out of SA so that the Karoo could be developed? I know things like that don't fit your narrative but sometimes facts shouldn't be ignored. Companies that didn't hold national treaties with SA had high hopes that a new election would improve the SA situation - in fact it only made things worse - so what is POQ to do? Seriously question Oleo, with a very unfriendly/noncompromising government, what do you think Philip should do today regarding SA??
As to Philip not pulling a rabbit out of his hat in 30 days, not only raising millions but also getting a qualified contractor/oil company signed up/approved by the feds - if that was a big disappointment for you then I think your expectations might be set a little high.
I don't know your history with Falcon and not trying to insult you, but at times I get the feeling you are not really tuned into this little company - if I am wrong I apologize. Then again maybe you feel your contribution is to complain.
Longknife: "Here in the states we have a saying, "make hay while the sun shines"! That's why I still don't like the idea of pushing the monetization of FOG out 3,4,5 years. You never know what's going to happen in the future. Like the political climate".
Ok - then please say what you mean. You mentioned nothing about proving commerciality in your first post - you want out sooner rather than later as the future is uncertain - DUH! Commerciality isn't even mentioned until your second restated post only to be followed up by stating you frankly don't believe commerciality will ever happen and therefore Falcon is going to be worth $10million dollars - yada, yada, yada. So yes, I did comprehend your first "the sky is falling" post verses your second revised statement. You seem to take umbrage over me saying you might want to take your "bird in the hand" and sell it before it becomes worthless - that's basically what your are saying in your second "$10 million dollar" post - if you really believe in what you are saying then follow your own advise and exit before we are worth US$.01/share.
Make up your mind what you want to be upset about - Maybe its just me because I call out your BS - Maybe its Philip because he is not running this show to your standards - Maybe its Tamboran for revising Origin's drilling plans - Maybe, just maybe, your not cutout for the high risk and unknowns of this industry.
If Tamboran/Falcon are going to prove commerciality in the Beetaloo its going to take MORE than one well to accomplish that. IMO, that is one of the objectives of the pilot program - to prove the economical drilling/fracking/completing of multiple wells off of one pad. I don't believe it is, or will ever be, Falcon's goal to become a long-term producer. IMO, its Falcon's plan to prove commerciality in the Beetaloo and then sell at the proper time most beneficial for the shareholders - be that 3,4 or 5 years. Just because all this doesn't meet your time-table doesn't mean Philip/board are wrong in trying to obtain the best price for your Beetaloo interest. You are free to sell your stock at any point that meets your price objective - its not mandated you stick around until the gavel drops.
No suitor is going to buy Falcon based on what tomorrow's or next year's commodity prices predict. The development of the Beetaloo is a decades long development. If you are in Falcon for what commodity prices offer today then you are in the wrong game - any buyer is going to be looking at much longer price trends..
I'm also confident that the Aussie government realizes the importance of the Beetaloo being a National strategic asset and the potential it holds for job creation - green energy is not doing away with fossil fuels in our lifetime - look at Europe and see what kind of ditch that type of thinking got them.
I'm in this long-term for the high rewards it offers - if that's not your game so be it. Good Luck however you proceed.
BCnatgas: Go back and re-read Origin's releases. They had initially planned to drill two wells off the same pad as the Amungee NW 1H - those wells were to demonstrate the speed and cost savings that could realized with multiple wells off the same pad - a very important component of proving commerciality. That's likely why the bore holes on the new location 10km away had not been drilled. That was the plan until it wasn't when Tamboran took over. It was always Origin's plan to drill those two wells this year and then in 2023/2024 begin the pilot program with an additional two planned wells. It looks like all this planning was trashed in the Origin fire sale deal. To try to blame POQ for this change once again goes to show you among many people don't understand Falcon's position in calling the shots in the Beetaloo.
Yeah, reality sucks but at least try to be honest in whom to point your finger at. If you think Falcon/POQ has any control over this change in plans then you my friend are placing blame in the wrong places.
Longknife: so you would rather Falcon put itself up for sale prior to proving commerciality? Gosh - I guess we should have sold out a year or two ago since it’s all down hill from here! I seriously question your judgement and glad your not running this show. Maybe you should sale and capture the current stock price before it plunges following your bird in the hand thinking.
Betyar: Yes it looks like the rumor was right but as everyone Falcon, I had no idea the extent of that rumor. I also know it caught many other people off guard - Origin/Tamboran played this close to their chest. I knew Origin/Tamboran were dealing but certainly not to that extent and nor any terms.
I am extremely happy with the outcome. Running short on time so gotta run but know that this company is going to be on a much higher protectory going forward. The next 2-3 years are going to be great for Falcon and its shareholders. We are in good hands with Tamboran and the sole risk option negotiated.
Newtofo/B2B: I learned that UncleBuk had nothing to offer this board. Nowadays he appears as a little green box on my computer. B2B - Let Newtofo and myself know if we miss anything - somehow I highly doubt it!! Maybe if more people would ignore him he will just fade away. The filter button for invented for him.
Smallfish: I agree with your reserve classification comments. I was not making reference to 2C reserves - I think I mentioned "contingent" and gave reference to the Amungee and its 1998 sq km surrounding acreage that was assigned contingent resources of 6.64 TCF.. We are talking apples to oranges. I took you comments to mean Falcon wouldn't benefit from any production unit unless they participated in the drilling of those production units. I'm saying that any production proved up in a 10 sq mile area can certainly be recognized across the boundary of that particular unit. If Falcon can benefit from large blocks of land carried at a higher price per acre based on even contingent resources that will translate to a higher stock price on land valuation alone.
I am not a PE and can't comment on what may or may not be classified as 2P or 3P reserves based on distance, pipeline access, etc. With that said, and as I believe you also mentioned, to a degree the 2c & 3C reserve classification will extend beyond a production unit boundaries. Between those bleed over reserves, contingent resources, etc. Falcon could benefit from completely standing on the sideline the next 3-4 years. POQ has already made it clear Falcon will be participating in drilling but not to the proposed 22,5% participation of 300 - 500 wells that Tamboran has estimated will be drilled on the Beetaloo in the next 3-5 years.
Some on this board may not understand the extent of the Velkerri formation across the Beetaloo - Yes there will be 'sweet spots' and some lower quality sections but overall the table-top Velkerri formation that lies across our acreage will likely produce similar returns. There is a hell of a lot of acreage to be drilled that will take decades to fully develop. I believe Falcon is sitting in the cat bird's seat to drill what they can afford to drill as raises/production permits. In three - four years there will have a suitor come knocking to acquire Falcon's interest at what is hopefully a price that will make all of us smile.
Oh by the way, that Velkerri formation also contains A & C shales that will be explored in time. The B & C shales were practically a toss-up in the Amungee area as to which to develop first. Falcon's geologist said the C shale has a few more rock structures which gave the B shale the advantage but the C shale holds vast gas in place available for future production. All is good IMO.
Oleo - "Did Philip really think he could have put together a deal in 30 days? "
You would have to ask Philip that question. I believe he quite possibly could have raised the money but then, IMO, that was only half the battle - Falcon had to end up with a partner that was an E&P company and met the approval of the Aussie government.
I always felt this would have literally been pulling a rabbit out of his hat if he accomplished everything in 30 day but what if he had talked to say Santos and they were all in - then BINGO the money is raised and being an Aussie company they would have likely met the approval requirements. The 30 days was to exercise Falcon's ROFR - after that he would have had an undisclosed amount of time to finalize a deal. So was I planning on all that happening - certainly not but there was a slim possibility.