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Poods: Crazy analogy but spot on - I had to laugh at that one. Some want POQ to get out in front of Origin and tell them how to run their drilling program - That's just not going to happen. Going forward, if things play out as I hope, that might change for the better - Falcon will not be fully carried and will have more input into the equation - not necessarily holding the big stick but at least have a seat at the table.. In the meantime Falcon is fully carried and right where it needs to be - much to the chagrin of some on this board.
Oleo: From my brief google search it looks like the Kavango Basin in not even in South Africa so politically speaking it has no relevance to this discussion. As to FOG - as I mentioned, they will be waiting for the political picture to clear up in SA before they do anything in the Karoo. I would be disappointed in Falcon if they went and spend what little cash reserves they have to pursue a project that may not happen for decades. However, POQ did mentioned recently that there was some potential good news coming out of SA - if so maybe the Karoo and a JV partner could be sooner rather than later - we shall see but I'm not holding my breath as I'm already turning blue from the Beetaloo :^)
Yes it is Dolerites - I am mixing up my mountains in Italy with the geologic structures in the Karoo - my bad! Interestingly, my son-in-law last week finished a 2 week bike ride from Germany to Italy that included pictures of the Dolomites in the back ground - these impressively rugged mountains must have stuck in mind LOL!
Oleo: I will be the first to tell you I am not a geologist/geophysicist and have no understanding of the Karoo basin geology. I do recall reading an article that pointed out Falcon's acreage was superior to Shell's and some of the other permits because it does not contain all the dolomite structures which makes Falcon's acreage more receptive to horizontal drilling. Maybe Shell is proposing a drilling program that 'works' with their acreage - Maybe Falcon's acreage lacking dolomites also lacks the resulting turbidites? If Chevron backed out of being Falcon's JV partner after paying them $1million then there are likely bigger issues at hand than geology - Chevron or a similar JV partner would be the one to do the extensive geological studies to pursue the Karoo. Personally, I would much rather Falcon focus its much limited resources on the Beetaloo Basin than trying to prove up something that may or may not ever happen over the next decade or two - Just my opinion.
I did learn some interesting Karoo facts from your post - Thanks!
Oleo/Newtofo: Thanks for the reply Oleo and your response Newtofo. I wasn't aware of the Alexander Cote/Tom Layman discussions - that's great news and another source of direct input with Origin. I'm fairly confident there is limited input by Falcon into Origin's management - we shareholders are just not in a position to be made privy to these internal discussions.
Regarding SA I will add, as some on this board may not be aware, that Philip was actually the chair of a committee working with the SA government trying to implement reasonable regulations that would have allowed E&P companies to move forward with their investments in SA - Philip made several trips to SA to lobby the government on behalf of the international E&P companies. The O&G industry was holding their breath for a positive change of governance in SA's last election - the results of that election made potential investment in SA even less likely and onerous. Having chaired the committee that was trying to improve the investment regulation, I am confident that Philip fully understands the issues as hand. In the mean time he is wisely standing on the sidelines waiting for the political waters to clear. The last I heard, the only companies that felt comfortable investing in SA are the French(?) based companies based of existing treaties that are in place. In the meantime we at Falcon and the rest of the O&G world wait for SA government to come to its senses. As in the Beetaloo, Falcon's SA land holds the best potential of all the shale fields in the Karoo - the current political /economic risk are too unattractive at this point in time.
Oleo: Serious Question - What would you have Falcon do differently at this stage of the game. I agree with you that Falcon, at this point of their full carry by Origin, is the most passive company in the Beetaloo. At the end of your post you state that this is a waiting game by Falcon - I agree with that statement also.. During this waiting period what do you think POQ/Falcon should be doing that the company is falling short on? I'm am curious as to what your expectations are of Falcon during this period of time - what should POQ be trying to accomplish? If Falcon should be more proactive, as you state, what would you have our little company do at this stage?
You seem to be comparing Falcon to the junior E&P companies operating in the Beetaloo - is that a fair comparison?
There is no right or wrong answer here - I have always respected your posts - I am really curious as to your thoughts and expectations of Falcon the last 2-3 years.
TN - Looks like another potential huge discovery in WY - the problem as mentioned in the article is that the prospect is on Federal land and getting the necessary permits to drill and develop can be challenging. The Lost Soldier literally took 14 years to get approval as the Lost Soldier Wild Mustang Federal Unit which consist of about 53 individual leases - I was told its been at least a couple of years since a any Federal Unit was issued - I believe that was in Colorado. To put together a 24,000 acre unit is pretty difficult nowadays.
OK - Back to Australia
Rich - Not familiar with Amplify. The Lost Soldier has been Independent Petroleum's project for many years. Its a pretty unique story on why its never been drilled. Rocky Mountain anticlines can be tricky and unpredictable - about the polar opposite of shale. Come to think of it the only well in the area is about 4 miles south of the spudded well - it was drilled back in the late 70's(?). It initially flowed about 3.6 mmcf/d of gas and 40-50 bbl oil/day from a shale zone but back then shale was not an understood productive formation and fracking didn't exist - not being conventional the well it was plugged.
Newtofo: Appreciate your understanding words and for not agreeing to putting my name down to be Martha Stewart's next cell mate LOL! Some people can't designate the difference between facts and rumors. I don't know why I even bother to bring stuff like this to the board - its a no win situation. Just to make things clearer to Damit - if what I said was a known 'fact' the last place I would post it would be on a public board - I'm not quite that stupid.
I would personally agree with your assessment that no farm down would likely happen until at least the initial flow rates of the next two wells - but then again as you seem to understand -rumors are rumors.
Darnit - Hmmm - Didn't Ultra go from about .15/share to $200+ in 8-9 years? Wish I had experienced some of that 'poor management' back then. Then again, sometimes history repeats itself - I have recently invested in the Lost Soldier Field project in Wyoming - two to three decades of work to put together a 24,000 acre Federal Unit, an AMI of 250,000 acres and to receive all the approvals/permits of the BLM (14 years on the permits alone). After many years the first well was spudded this last weekend. The Lost Soldier could contain 1 billion barrels of oil - the largest potential oil field in recent US history. It's virgin territory never drilled but surrounded by prolific oil production. And who is promoting/putting this deal together - the same guy who put together our Falcon Beetaloo acreage, the SA Karoo Basin acreage along with Ultra Petroleum's acreage - your favorite guy and poor manager. Some of us just never learn - Wish me luck!
Hey Poods - Much todo about nothing - typical board banter - I'm either an insider trader or a rumor mongerer - take your pick! POQ has been out of the office this last week - its just a coincidence that I know that - I'm not really stalking the guy LOL! Actually I haven't talked to Philip in months - didn't figure there was much he could/would tell me anyway that we don't already know. Looks to be the calm before the storm - lots of news coming in the next few months.
The geology took billions of years to develop and is not going anywhere soon. Shale is a pretty predictive formation and with what's known about the Amungee NW-1H and the Tamborini wells, etc. we have a good indication of what our future holds - I'm pretty comfortable with your assessment that the geology is a gift. The commodity market is also looking very positive. The gas is there - the next task is to figure out how best to unlock it from that shale. The potential as you say is not going anywhere. Take Care
Uncle Buck: I really don't care if you think the 'rumor' is legitimate or not - it is in fact a rumor. Over all the many years I've been on this board I have never tried to mislead anyone and I don't intend to start slinging BS now. My information is from a very sensitive source - posting such information on a public board is not going to happen.
I believe we are all in agreement that Origin is looking to farm down it's interest - pretty sure that's going to happen - the question is to whom and when. I have been given a name of the farm-down company and have been told it could happen sooner than later and that there is currently serious negotiations going on at Origin - Does that mean the whisper is 100% correct - certainly not as there are likely several companies in negotiating with Origin . Some board members think Origin is sitting on their thumbs - nothing could be further from the truth. Origin is a utility company whose business model is being stressed with high energy prices - they want to get out of the E&P business as they need to utilize their cashflow elsewhere. If what I'm hearing is right you and others will be pleased. Take this for what its worth - obviously not much to you, Longknife and I'm sure many others - that's OK I'm just sharing what I have heard. If I'm wrong still know that a farm down is still coming which will be very positive for Falcon. Good Luck
FYI -Not a pump and dump - I'm still actively buying Falcon and chasing POODS - I have to admit that's a hard guy to keep up with - Longknife likely not so much so :^)
Longknife: You say "the fact is we have done very little since the moratorium" WTF! Go back and reread my post - Origin/Falcon have made great strides in proving up the huge potential since the moratorium. I'll give you that Origin 'moves like molasses' so what do you propose Falcon do about that? Some on this board still don't seem to have grasp the fact that Origin is the operator - As I have mentioned many time - Falcon is no longer driving this proverbial bus. You and others can moan all you want but it won't change the fact that Falcon has little if much of any say on Origin's timeline.
You add "Virtually nothing being done in the last year". You appear to think the 2022 drilling program just pops up out of a box of crakerjacks - there is a lot of planning going on behind the scenes to facilitate the drilling two horizontals 1500 miles from god knows where.
You say "Origin will have 77pct plus of Falcons' permits- for what??? " - How about the millions upon millions of dollars they have carried Falcon over this project and the clout they hold with the NWT to get fracking in the Beetaloo approved in the first place - Because of Origin's carry Falcon is still in this game and the table has been set to grow the value of your so touted 7 digits shares.
Longknife - I really don't care a rat's arse about how young you 'retired' or how smart of a speculative stock investor you might be - What I am saying is that if you can't tolerate Falcon/Origin and are so unhappy about their Beetaloo accomplishments over these many years then maybe its time you change horses. If you are one to sit up and take notice of Dprussky's actions then maybe you should consider following his lead.
Longknife: Sorry guy, I don't agree with your assessment that "It really IS sad that so little has been accomplished over such a long time with huge amounts of money!" It sounds as if you are not even remotely aware of what all has been accomplished in the Beetaloo over the last many years and the expense/efforts involved in drillings multiple appraisal wells in the middle of god-forsaken nowhere! We have seen this project take on Judge Pepper and her nearly two year halt on drilling (that was the moratorium and the subsequent rewrite of the drilling regulations for horizontal drilling in NWT). We have witnessed the drilling of five wells that proved up the existence of Middle Velkerri B shale along with the A and C shale across the huge aerial extent of the Beetaloo concession ( 20, 50 and 70 miles apart) all while being about 2500 km from oil any field services/suppliers. We have announced a 6.6 TCF world class natural gas discovery. We drilled a well that proved the huge potential of the million acre liquid rich Kyalla formation. We drilled a highly successful vertical test on the wet gas Velkerri Flank well. We are on the brink of drilling two Velkerri member wells this year which based their close proximity of the Amungee NW-H-1, will in all likelihood, reflect the same normalized 5.2 - 5.8 mmcf/d production rate of the Amungee NW-H1. Other operators have begun to follow our initial success and are drilling what appears to be exciting successful Santos, Tamborini and Empire wells. We are on the cusp of beginning the highly commercial move to a 10 - 12 well pilot program this next year. The Beetaloo is coming to the attention of major oil companies across the globe AND YET YOUR SO SAD so little has been accomplished??
I am excited about the huge potential of the Beetaloo nowadays. FYI - I never expected Origin to stay long term with this project - they are, after all, basically a Utility company - E&P does not fit into their business model. I eagerly await the announcement that Origin will be farming down their interest in the Beetaloo. Falcon's board on the other hand has begun to realize the extreme potential that the Beetaloo holds and have gone from selling out to proving up more acreage.
I have heard very exciting rumors as to whom Origin is in talks with - if rumor has is right, that transaction will be sooner rather than later. Falcon is on the verge of greatly improving its shareholder value - yours and mine!
But then again, maybe you and the other similarly SAD people need to move along to another industry that you better understand and can appreciate.
Newtofo - Thanks for the link to the Delineation Program EMP - that's just what I was looking for. 4 pads with 3 wells each located on each side of the Amungee NW-1H and a little south of the highway - it looks to be about a 300 sq km area?
Newtofo - Thanks for the clarification. Do you have a link to the EMP for the Pilot Production area. I seem I recall they were planning on drilling abut 3-4 wells per pad? If so, are we are talking about 3 pads? I am also assuming these pads will be along the Carpenteria Hwy - likely east of the current planned wells?
I hope that Origin will swallow a little bit of their pride and hire some experienced personnel to assist in the drilling/completing of the next two wells and along with the pilot wells. IMO, Origin has relinquished what should have been their leadership position in the Beetaloo to that of playing second fiddle. I'm getting frustrated with their apparent lack of leadership - I feel that Origin is dragging their feet/drilling schedules intentionally so that the other contractors in the Beetaloo can show them the way and prove up the fracking/completion techniques to follow. Probably smart when you don't have the personnel/experience to take that lead - hopefully Sheffield's people can assist if Origin will pay attention.
As to the Green People - would they rather the pilot wells be flared for extended periods of time - these people are grasping at straws here. If the pilot program flared all that gas they would rigger - now that it might be captured/compressed and put in a pipeline they still complain about all the climate damage. These guys are not doing themselves any favors by talking out of both sides of their mouth.
ITguy: I'm not saying your Velkerri S2-1 site is wrong but I thought this pad was located off the Carpentaria Hwy about 10 KM from the Amungee NH-1 site. I'm not seeing the highway anywhere around this site. Please feel free to correct me as I may not know what I am looking at.
Thanks for our work in putting this together!
dprussky: I don't understand your comment "So they (Tambo) have this rig for 60 days so this will put drilling for Falcon about November". POQ made it clear on his investor call that Origin is not waiting on its contracted rig completing another drilling program. The rig Origin contracted was in a yard undergoing some minor modifications which was the cause for the September spud date. IMO, Tambo's Ensign 970 rig is a different rig.