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Are we confident that Prov is exempt (even historically) from this type of 'unafordable loan' type of claim. I do appreciate that now they have the FCA consent they probably are leaders in adherence to regulation (personally would be more worried if I held a different doorstep lender)......but historically could this come back to bite us?

Hi ntnyshares

How do you know there will be bad news for moneybarn and higher costs for the group?

Is this genuine, is there any supporting evidence to this?

Thanks

Personally have been a bit dismissive of Britbox, but found the following list of (appreciate this is subjective) good series that is available. I presume they will also show the likes of Love Island (without ads) on Britbox and not ITV hub+ means this could do really well. A big part of the attractive of Britbox is that it really showcases the content ITV has available and also the tech that supports this - that has to be a benefit to other companies looking to takeover ITV.....

Keeping Up Appearances
One Foot In The Grave
Gavin & Stacey
My Family
Bottom
The Good Life
The Young Ones
Little Britain
The Young Ones
Absolutely Fabulous
Come Fly With Me
The Royle Family
Big School
Birds of a Feather (1-2)
Vicar Of Dibley
French & Saunders
The Two Ronnies
Open All Hours
Still Open All Hours
Fawlty Towers
Harry Enfield & Chums
Michael Palin's Full Circle & other series
Red Dwarf
The Mitchell & Webb Look
Outnumbered
W1A
Porridge (classic series)
Hold The Sunset
The League Of Gentlemen
Twenty Twelve
Boys from the Blackstuff
The Thick Of It
Pride & Prejudice (1995)
Vera
Brideshead Revisited
Clocking Off
Doc Martin
Poirot
Wonders of the Solar System
Wonders of Life
Prime Suspect
Cold Feet
Love Island
The Only Way Is Essex
Blackadder
Titanic (2012)
Dinnerladies
Live at the Apollo
Life on Mars
Miss Marple

Ok, I am far from being an expert on this (so more happy to be corrected on my calcs / assumptions).

Taking away the exceptional costs for the bid, you are looking at approx 150m profit over the full year. That represents a P/E ratio of 7.4. The interim divi of 9p is approx 2%, so you would imagine that the full divi will be slightly higher, perhaps in the region of a total 5% over the year). This also looks well covered over the profit assumption above. Big tick in the box with director deals at around £5.

There appears to be a question mark about the profit that Vanquis bank is making (will this continue to shrink - although assume tighter lending criteria means lower impairment). This could well be offset against home credit breaking even late next year. Also read that regulatory issues are being resolved.

I am a (small) owner of these shares and barring any unforeseen surprises am happy to hold or even add. Would welcome any (but especially) opposing views.

Have doubts about if Britbox can be a success. However ITV have 500k paying £4 per month for hub+, if these get moved to britbox you already have a strong base. This is before itv and bbc advertise the service and itv intends to have a upgrade to Britbox button on the hub, which has 30m accounts (a large number in 16-30). Don't think britbox will because revenue game changer but it will showcase the content ITV have and that could be very appealing to content hungry new providers...

Widely reported now, looks like the take over has failed, IMO good news for Provident only shareholders, we shall see the impact on the SP tomorrow.

IMO the Prov is on the right course with regards to regulators and should begin to build from a solid base. They should be aware though that failure do so quickly enough could result in another hostile takeover and potential shareholder value destruction (my thinking is Prov spent a LOT on proving NSF unfit - the divi payment infringement)....

Cannot access the document, would a kind person provide an overview (obviously can see increase in SP)

Thanks for this CHR.....

Appreciate it is somewhat speculation, but having the companies at separate entities means that NSF cannot cross-sell guarantee loans (or any specific NSF product) to Vanquis cardholders?

That being the case a large part of the argument for the takeover is removed isn't it (or am I being naïve?)

Ok, so have read this is money article. 50+ gives them control, but they have to run it separate to NSF (boards and cannot delist). If running it separately it undermines main reasoning for the takeover. So is a complete waste of time and effort (apart from the possible kick up the bum of the provvy board and the 19m spent)

In all honesty, it won't get regulatory approval either will it?

Thanks Batfast. So the only barr to the deal is regulatory, happy to be corrected if mistaken.

I am far from an expert in these matters, the way I set it is.:-

The gang of three institutional holders, who have documented links to the former management of pfg (who now run NSF), believe that the sale of assets under this takeover to return funds to the shareholders. Coupled with the aggressive NSF plan to sell guarantee loans to Vanquis customers would return more value.

As for being value destructive, this is my main worry, the 3 are ok as they hold shares the other side, so if it undervalued pfg, they pick that up anyway.

My feeling is that PFG would be ok long term, slow and steady improvement, with strong regulatory bonds as a single entity. If the takeover happens there may be a short term lift as the new company goes a bit more directly for short term gains.

Does anyone know if the CMA actually takes into account the % of votes or if its main concern are other areas?

So what then happens if 90% of the shareholders don't accept?

Thought I read they could go with a lower amount, can anyone clarify on this?

Thanks

Thanks for the reply Echo.

Get the impression the takeover won't go ahead, pfg board played a bit of a blinder. Also not sure that the growth areas are not online, not door to door. The largest part of the business is Vanquis Cc. Am a touch worried about any payouts but read some compo had been fully paid out. Not sure if there are any other areas under investigation?

Don't think it will hit the previous heights, but good p/e now, especially if the home collection division breaks even. Happy for anyone to talk me out of it!

Thinking of buying into this share. Does this board think the price is a compelling buy (happy to have negative comments)?

What happens if the reverse takeover falls through, if it happens or if prov attempt a takeover of NSF to the share price?

Thanks

Agree with you Dallo - Content is king, some of the new entrants will fall by the wayside so we are in an arms race for content.

It is not just purchasing what ITV produces, it is also stopping rivals being able to use it (Netflix broadcast older love islands and QueerEye program). Plus you have the boring standard business, which whilst perhaps shrinking, still makes money.

Backing up what Dallo said.

On the presentation video, Carolyn was asked about the current Britbox, if it was earning or costing money, there was a bit of hesitation, over commercially sensitive information. But they then said, it is not costing us anything, it is doing very well (I may have paraphrased). This is with 500k subscribers.

She said no Licence fee money would be used for the new Britbox and it would sit on the existing HUB tech. To add balance, (someone else cannot remember her name), did say that Britbox uk would be different to the existing Britbox, in that they needed more new content to drive subscriptions, but there was the opportunity for these to come together potentially over time.

Like I say really interesting.

Is available on itv website, it is 1 hour 30 mins. But am really impressed with how Carolyn McCall comes across, focused (almost to the point of being abrupt), direct and confident. Well worth a watch. They have already secured 100m extra on the studios business from this time last year (not seen this widely reported). Overall question marks over spend on Britbox (maximum of 40m net next year...compared to NF how much - billion?), but she seems to be addressing areas where itv have lagged behind. Overall very impressed. Worth a watch.....

Thanks Dallo.

Agree that content is king, especially at moment. It has been speculated that the studio business could be spun off seperately, intresting that you have assigned a value based upon comparable companies.

How have you ascertained the value of the studio business Dallo?

Think the issue is that a larger proportion of the advertising monies goes straight to the bottom line. Studios will only ever make 15% (which is healthy, but not comparable). thanks

Agree with this Swell, ITV is a content producer and Netflix/Amazon are all about building audiences with the best content and not worrying about accumulating debt. At some point there could well be a tipping point, where owning a content producer protects the content from rivals, makes it exclusively available to you and gives you a back-catalogue of programmes. That does't have to be ITV, but as soon as one gets swallowed up, could well be an arms race in the sector.....AND there is always the potential of another buyer (Lib?????) coming in as well. Even if it doesn't happen they will still make money and pay divis look secure for the foreseeable....