Member Info for wealthtrasfer

It’s also about 3% pbt when borrowing at 5%. If it’s a cash offer which I expect it is then it’s not immediately obvious that it’s a smart move.

Doesn’t sit. Wry well with 28% ROCE expectations !!!

Great value xxxA 🤔 spend £88m to achieve £50m improvement to CAP.

Right now, the real issue at stake for markets isn’t when or how many times the Federal Reserve cuts; it is that the next rate decision will be a cut. The QT cycle is over. And that should be good news for stocks in the medium term.

Timing the Fed is really hard, but one thing is certain: the trend for inflation is lower. One blip is not going to change the thinking among what are largely academics looking at long-term cycles.

Don’t get up in the noise of day traders or swaps pricing that changes as often as your socks. But, of course, this raises the stakes for the producer prices index due Friday.

Vincent Cignarella

FX Strategist & Macro Squawk

March - June 22 a very different place to where we are now. In a macro and value sense. I’m not a chartist but suggest looking at the financials and opportunity may provide a clearer view.

Kando, I thinks less of a euphoric rally and more a relief to be returning back towards a more sensible valuation. There is relief amongst holders that the lows are behind us. There are lots of genuine reasons that this is a recovery play. Good luck.

Best start shorting then Kando. Where is the dwindling pile of cash. Company is cash positive. Only loss is due to non-ash impairment. Contracts renewing at margins above inflationary costs. Revenue growing. So its turned or is turning a corner. On top of that is a prospect of a bid or deleveraging. Either way will create a quick re-rate. Good luck with shorting you will need nerves of steel to short now.

Poker, I agree they probably dont want the whole company. I do think they want Alsa back. Its also creates or releases the most potential and therefore value if US Bus and Transit were separated and run from the US. UK bus/coach and German Rail to go to whoever needs a bolt on in the UK.

Leaving the jewel in the crown, Alsa, for Cosmen's bigger play to include Evolyn. Its their back yard and they know the business inside out. Taken private for a while or listed in Europe as a separate entity makes a lot of sense (and value).

Genghis - couldn't agree more

The trading price is as you say based on earnings and performance. The underlying value matters when deciding to hold when the performance has been lacking whether due to Bod action/inaction or macros.

Pedro - Im not saying its going to £2.50 anytime soon. My point was the sum of the parts current value.

Sum of the parts is worth a lot more than that, depending on how bullish you view things. Between £2.50 - £3.50 IMO

If they get to 30% either directly or in consert they have to offer or stand back for 6 months. They are getting close. Close enough to step up if they need or want to.

Poker, I would agree when a share is fully priced, however I believe that the market over sold and the price is already below value for the revised target so there is a cushion if they still slightly underperform. Key is 'no impairment'. A small loss to small profit will support, then all eyes on School Bus sale.

I cant vouch for the news site other than it has highlighted information on Alsa before such as the Dubai contract (now seemingly cancelled). As for fake news, it is not. Its just a statement of the facts but the point was its been noticed outside of people with a direct interest. Thinking about whether the increase in holding is a defensive move or not, I dont think it is. They (Cosmens) could already effectively block a mandatory takeover with their 12% holding (they only need 10.1% shares to block as a court order take over approach, needing a 75% majority, would not apply in these circumstances as far as I can tell). They could be signalling that its no point trying to make a silly offer as 'we' have the firepower to counter it and make a better one? or another option is that they are building to achieve a 30% combined stake, either on their own or in consert. They can now, I would imagine, quite easily get to 30% by acting with others or potentially saying if anyone is interested you need to come and talk to us and we might agree to something but 'we' want ALSA! either way I doubt they are doing it as a pure value play.

Https://www.time.news/spanish-assault-on-mobico-the-british-parent-company-of-alsa/

Mobico, the British parent company of the Asturian transport company Alsa, has become a priority target for Spanish capital in recent weeks. Mobico has owned Alsa since 2005. That year, the Cosmen family agreed to sell the Spanish company to the British company – then called National Express – in exchange for a share package that has been growing, especially in recent months. Since last December 6, the Asturian family has increased its controlling stake in Mobico from 12% to 17.3%, thus reaffirming its position as the main shareholder – the next largest shareholder in the firm is the Liontrust fund, with 5.5% of its capital.

However, another of the Cosmen companies, Northern Express Enterprises, has recently raised another 3% in Mobico’s capital, so the Asturian family’s stake in Mobico would already exceed 20%.

Last year!

If intangible assets have no value then there would be no impairment. If there was no impairment we would have made a profit in 2023 !

The macro policies that have affected the share price are priced in to the reduction of value of the intangible assets. Therefore the reduction in share price beyond that asset impairment is double discounting. The reversal of impairment when macros improve (as they have done later this year) is not captured or recaptured in the asset value. Skewing the asset value further.

The market will catch up.

They must be buying off book otherwise the so would be very different. I think breaking 20% in consort is significant particularly as xxxAcc says it could be to block any hostile bid. We don’t want a low bid at this stage, from anyone.

Looks more and more likely that the. Cosmens are making a move