Member Info for wealthtrasfer

I guess the price is what the II’s will accept. I assume they are not going to be happy after no doubt being told that “all is good and will be sorted 2024” . Turned out not to be true. What will they accept?

JG - I doubt they had the detail of the extent of the mismanagement and catalogue of errors.

There is value in it to spin out the respective operating units and for Cosmen to keep Alsa.

To be honest this has to now be broken up to realise value. The confidence is shot, value is on the floor. Its still an attractive area of investment with a proactive and competent board. I doubt they will be given the space and time to turn this around in its current format.

Its just a case of who makes the money now and its not going to be long term holders.

No long term recovery now, it will be long gone. This has been mismanaged down to the levels we are now at. Cosmens will get their way at a price they will scarcely believe was possible a few years back.

I cant see anyone putting money in to this unless they are seeking to take it private. Why would they invest tens of millions just to block. They are deal making.

A year or so ago you would have said £1.80 was stealing it. They will now get it at a significant discount to that.

Some sort of consortium bid? Americans, Europeans and UK.

JG - Quite agree. Hope that happens too now and will accept that’s going to be at a much lower price expectation than I had previously.

I’ve read and reread the report and there is more detailed info in it than usual. Almost as if they have decided to finally come clean.

New to me was the US and uk not returning to profit until 25 too. That is a bit of an eye opener.

This year is effectively a stand still year at best. There are lots of small hits to come for various things in the report eg fuel, subsidies, etc etc. So on their guidance of around £200m adjusted then Statutory will likely be around break-even taking account of the £85m interest due.

2025 should start to show a profit if all things stay fairly stable. If not then all bets off.

This won’t recover now until and unless US school bus sells or there is a return to a low inflation, low margin macro environment where these businesses are more successful.

I will catch up in July but for now I’m resigned to this going nowhere, so no point wasting time looking at it each day.

I think the board have been less than honest/clear in what they knew was coming. I definitely don’t trust them and am being much more cautious with this stock.

I think Im just ranting now and need to go off and have a word with myself and try and re-assess. My view, subject to a takeover, is still we are okay but set back a year or so. I need to take a break.

Poker - Good point. I suspect those support levels may change for Garat this time but interesting to see if they dont.

Poker - "I think it would be naive to think that the CEO was even appointed in the first place to have a full 100% charge of all those aspects of decisions"

I woudn't expect a CEO to have carte blanche but to have freedom to deliver the broad remit in his own style. The problem is Cosmens are only one stakeholder, albeit now a significant one, and their remit may not necessarily be mine/others.

I don't believe that actions are necessarily being delivered for the greater benefit of all but to the remit of the largest shareholder where it is becoming increasing clear of their objective.

Problem is JG there is always another one off cost round the corner and that is part of the problem with confidence. But yes a small profit still is possible and likely and maybe a bit more if the German Rail contract cost recovery can be re-priced.

JG - the main driver of a sell off today is from PI's looking who were in to get a quick buck out of a NA sale. That has now evaporated and been pushed back 6 months, at least. They have clearly not had the interest that they expected which is why they are delaying and hoping that the contract repricing will make the difference. The big issue is they have acknowledged that school bus wont recover in its current state for at least 2 years (but hinted that it needs cash and restructuring to fully recover) and so that has also dented the hopes of a premium sale price and significant debt repayment. This is why a takeover is now much more likely to be considered by II's.

As mentioned before the low/conservative adjusted profit for 2024, given cost cutting programs and pricing recovery, I think it was way too conservative. I fully expect that will/should be beaten!

Debt not falling is not a problem as we took on more debt with the euro bond (£400m paid off with new 500m euro taken on, so overall should have been slightly higher).

Cash flow was acceptable

Sentiment is poor. I actually think (bid error aside) Stamp has a better handle of things and is more competent than Garat. I think Garat should have gone. He's the one making the decisions on strategy, acquisitions, dividends, pace of change etc... not Stamp. Stamp just made a pricing error, albeit a large one and therefore had to go. Garat has made many errors and keeps trying to wash over them with more of the same euro charm. A puppet, not for our benefit.

He needs to go. I would then have some confidence that this is not just all about the Cosmens and that there is some intention to get a grip and quickly. That would send a strong message to investors and would help restore some faith.

The more I think about it the more p**sed Im getting. This board is acting in the interests of only one investor and Garat remains in place due to the support of that one investor.

Why would you spend money acquiring low margin, non essential bolt on businesses in Alsa when cash and investment is clearly needed, as stated, to return a valued prize asset back to full health and to seek to ensure maximum return for all shareholders?

Smokey - completely agree. He's like a very unconvincing and broken record. Theres one very obvious and proven candidate

Poker - Yes they sound like they will recover some of it, possibly in this years results. The onerous contract clauses that have caused the problem are, although not desirable, understandable. However a £30m error is not. Thats inexcusable at their level. He had to go but I dont think anyone new coming in will do a much better job, errors aside, unless they abandon the niceties of the business objectives and get someone ruthless and focused on the profit margins.

I also think Stamp comes across well, however you cant make that many mistakes and the final nail being a £30m error in bid pricing (over and above the onerous contract clauses which may be excusable). Thats a big mistake and why he had to go. Ignatio looked like a PM thats been in place for 10 years and aged by 20.

They really have had a s**t storm of a time over the last 4 years but not handed it decisively enough or diligently enough to remain believable.

Garrat talks a good game but theres no trust left in whats he says. Its just more of the same and reacting to problems.

The Canary Bus and other aquisitions were brushed over. I dont care if they are long term good additions, they shouldnt have been done at this time in my view but they were because Cosmens see them as part of their plan when they eventually get control of Alsa. The very sizeable and profitable tail is wagging the dog.

Yes they are looking to have the contact repricing in place for the start of the season ie Q3 and then they will progress the sale.

My concern is that if the sale doesn't progress, Stamp has said it wont recover for at least 2 more years. This will no doubt impact the level at which offers will be received.

HValue - bidding season is now and school Bus contract starts Autumn (school year start back)

"could it go into the 40's"

Possible of course. But my view is very similar to FISH and I expect one way or another, through takeover or eventual sale of School Bus (albeit at lower price than hoped) this will be £1+ by end of the year, but based on an event not on trading.

The possibility of a take over has gone up my a large margin now. Where will it be though.

I cant see how NA sale is going to achieve the values being touted when it was being put up for sale when Stamp admits it wont return to pre-pandemic returns for 24 or 25 and is asset heavy and needs restructuring.

If I was sat with the cash looking to aquire the business I woudnt be thinking that I will pay the pre-pandemic price for an asset that needs my money in order to get back to that value. Sounds more like Dragons Den !

Yes looks like 3 years and a long slog uphill if NA isnt forthcoming or....... the group gets split up.

More likely now that Cosmens take it out in a a bargain bid (for them).