Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Michael on twitter loves Abbott. His comment that Abbott's specificity issue will be sorted by multiple antigen tests assumes that specificity issues are not due to copy number. There is no evidence to suggest that Abbott can sort their specificity issue by multiple antigen targets ie no prospect of it evolving to a mass screening tool as the PPV will be poor. So it can't even compete in the same market as PCR yet and possible will never be able to.
Good post there on Twitter regarding the processing time. Does the Abbott test take 15 minutes to process each sample? If it does, that is very slow. A swab test too, which the shorters like to always point out as a negative.
So, to get this straight, is this correct?
Novacyt has a broader test, saliva based, better specificity better PPV, a faster rate of testing.
Abbott's is probably cheaper and has a faster turnaround per test?
That Abbott test link should be posted on the Avacta board as it is more relevant to them. The positive predictive value will be poor compared to PCR. Has Abotts test sample been tested in patients with flu? Cross react.
RNS today is good news and their diagnostic range should broaden much further with time
That has been the UK's plan for years, to try and grow their way out by building and increasing the population in order to finance the pension and deficit burden.
Problem is many of these jobs never pay enough in tax to justify, these people get old themselves and our infrastructure and resources can't take it.
Investment in education and technology would be far better.
I think we are seeing a lot of people bringing forward their property purchases and renovations, exacerbating the issue later this year and next.
I think unemployment, Brexit, our unbalanced economy, unskilled workforce and chronic underinvestment in public services is going to cause a big reduction in living standards, which has been happening for the last 10 years. Houses may go up nominally as the government prints their way out but relatively I think the house builders are a bad bet. I think the demographic that go for new builds are going to be the hardest hit.
In the job I work Brexit will have a very bad effect on losing skilled workers. These can't be replaced as there is already a shortage of these employees.
The US on the other hand I cannot see struggling, they can grow their way out. Building there actually will add economic value, unlike here. Their tech companies and advantage is insurmountable in the medium term.
Immigration will be very low this year, next year too most likely, maybe for the foreseeable future as even if a vaccine works suggestions are those in the poorest countries will not be getting a vaccine.
We have a low household size compared to other nations, demand is due to want not need.
Unemployment high
Exodus of skilled due to Brexit
Cramped estates at 15 houses per acre in commuter zones will not be doing well going forward.
Without details hard to know what these changes will mean but if rules are relaxed significantly then more land will be available for building and land price should drop. Impairment of land bank could be coming and TWs land purchases will have been an awful decision.
Current government have many friends with land so doubt they will want shake things up too much, unless they own a lot of land that currently wouldn't get council approval for building.
Obviously not that simple:
Impairments of land bank would only result in an impact to assets resulting in a negative asset position on the balance sheet. This would not impact their going concern status unless their loan or credit facility were dependent on their net asset position. If that was the case they have been disingenuous and raised for this reason not land.
How does a negative balance sheet take a company under?
They would go under if they had insufficient liquidity - cash.
DGR - if they didn't have constrained capital why did they raise money? For the fun of it?
They clearly had insufficient funds to do what they wanted ie constrained. They would have had to go into their credit facility otherwise.
Define cheap prices, cheap relative to what? Cheap relative to last March, to next March? They raised money ostensibly to purchase land, time will tell if it is 'cheap'.
I was commenting regarding ROCE.
Supercharger - ROCE is what they are really interested in. You can push this up more by building faster than by holding on for a revenue uplift which may or may not happen. TW have constrained capital (why they had to raise recently, so faster selling is the best way to raise returns.
Nige_W - the main issue with HTB is that all land has been purchased on the premise that HTB will be extended. If HTB is removed revenue will drop and margins will be squeezed, probably turning negative. Can't see HTB being removed for a long while yet, unless another prop takes its place.
Terrible results today.
I thought £50 was crazy when I wrote it down but there really is the need for this testing now and once established can be easily used for other diseases which would have multiple benefits
Not saying Novacyt will be the ones but if their relationships with the government and NHS are good and they continue to think progressively that is possible and is anyone better placed?
Save the drink until the next step up in SP - surely can't be far off. We all certainly deserve it!
The paper again reiterates the need for a massive increase in testing volumes. The UK needs this but I don't think the administration side will keep up.
Current issues with testing inUK in hospitals are the administration side, not the testing. Some patients in large teaching hospitals are waiting over 48 hours for results. Once clear patients are released into safe areas which are covid free. A test faster than 1 hour would not be of much benefit unless it has better sensitivity/specificity as it takes longer than this in triage.
Worst case scenario, which I do not think will happen is Novacyt gets no more UK tenders, all trials fail, no selling after covid and has to sell at low margins then perhaps the share value is £2.
Best case scenario is high margins and volumes, extended government tender and a transition into a diagnostic company with long term sales. For me this has to be a share price of £50 in several years.
I don't think the relationships being developed and the future desire and need for infectious diagnostics can be under estimated
I should of said, well done on SNG Skeletor and apologies if my previous post came off as blunt regarding their results. The odds are their phase 3 will be successfully but their phase 2 was very close. Lots of people on other boards were really promoting the results without critically looking at them. Good luck whether you sell or hold.
On here you present yourself as having a balanced opinion and the voice of reason why this will not increase much price but on SNG you are not this person. You are presenting the results as 'sensational', something which they are not.
I was wondering why these differences in character and questioning your views on SNG