If you would like to ask our webinar guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund a question please submit them here.
To clear this one up does anyone know of a small cap oil company that does not need to raise cash to grow ? Raising cash is not a problem so long as the board can convince invetors that they can get a healthy return. I would buy more equity in NOP if it had a compelling reason for my investment. The simple fact is that they will have a strong cash position at year end and predict being cash positive in 2015. Thus any cash raising would only be to speed up production. The whole point of holding the NOP investment is that they have a 'production growth led strategy' something hardly any oil companies have. NOP is an investment unlike most oil companies where its speculation. So its best to stop speculating about any cash requirements and let this competent board do its job.
A very good sign to see these director buys. Based on 500-650bpd rate from Canada and the current forecast cash position the current market cap reflects nothing other than what we currently know. It assumes we will never see anything else in terms of oil from any of the other assets including Canada's other wells. Target mid term SP of 30p is very reasonable.
Once again as we have all repeatedly said TW has been proven to talk complete nonsense. He must just make these stories up for his own gain. Well done NOP its so refreshing to have a strong board who is transforming this company. The current Market Cap is so cheap - I've increased my holding again today.
Why on earth have NOP not put this information out on an RNS. The Italy information for example would really help investors. We should all encourage the board to keep investors informed on where this company is going and the potential it has. Thanks to you as always Mickeygit - perhaps they should employ you to do there PR !
Thanks Mickygit we need answers to these. I like companies that share their vision - look at Vislink for example where they are clear on generating 8m profit this year and have said that for some time now - easy to buy into this and of course value the company - I even like Monitise who say they will turn to profit in 2016 - I like even more that they have just announced there share options for the Directors is linked to a share price of 75p 3 months before they lapse - now that's what I call an incentive plan. Its also evident that KB has still not updated on the long term incentive plan for the NOP Directors ! We need a clear compelling vision from NOP please KB.............
Poetical makes some interesting points. My read on todays update is as follows. They still have $22m of cash, so no need for a fund raise yet, and clearly KB will not comment on this. The next month is critical, as with the new wells coming on line we need to see the daily output, it was disappointing that they did not talk about potential exit rates from these wells. Italy update by year end was a positive for me, however again lacked detail - what value is Italy potentially worth to NOP ? Nothing about P1,2 and 3 reserves ? Gross profit at $290K was a positive, but admin expenses at $3.6m needs some explaining. As always we need to read the small print so this comment was nice: Revenue from Canadian production in May and June was received after the half year and the capital expenditure planned for the second half of 2014 will be further offset by six months of operating income from on going production. What we need to know is when will NOP stop losing money and be cash generative. Overall the market will not react to this news, which is much as its been. KB talks about attracting investors, to do this we need more vision and something to believe in. I'm holding as downside looks minimal and upside still remains positive - at least NOP has now got a revenue stream, unlike a lot of oil companies with much higher valuations !
Simon is pointing out what we all know. The problem is the analysts have different forecasts than Vislink themselves. Next week if the company is on track for £80m revenue and £8m profit then the share price should be closer to 60-70p with upside for the future. I've held this one since 17p and have no reason to sell yet. This share is still cheap.
A very nice insightful post from poetical. Here's my assumption.....poetical knows about oil and energy and I certainly can read the financial and balance sheet information. If I add add our combined knowledge and the insights we receive from mickeygit from the board we can assume our investment is safe and its a waiting game. I suggest we all keep making these sound additions to this bulletin board and let everyone else say what ever they want. What we do know now is that TW talks complete nonsense.
....and when they produced 1800bpd the share price was over 100p ! When NOP gets to 500bpd then I reiterate with there balance sheet and assets the share price would be worth 45p.
I did receive a response to my question about getting more communication out and getting more postive news out regarding the production led growth strategy. Both Nick Morgan and Keith Bush have written to me and even offered to speak to me by phone should I wish. Both messages where understanding and positive which demonstrates how good this management team are.
Had chance to review this today and this is a very well articulated and written update. If you read it in conjunction with the recent reports it is essentually suggesting there are no cash concerns and that the planned uplift in production is on track. Ive been back through my balance sheet workings updating based on todays annoucement and remain a buyer here. I think we can read very postively from this update and once again I reiterate my belief that NOP is very cheap at current price and has headspace to move to 50p. The realy positive thing again is how we cannot believe a word TW says. I still think this share will take time, but as we move into year end and see the production rates come up the price will have to be reflected. Time is running out to buy into this well run company at this very low price. This management team is really turning around NOP and I do really like the production led growth strategy.
I have written a lengthy mail to Keith Bush tonight outlining my alarm at no response to the current speculation. It is clear that investors are not understanding or believing the companies current strategy, even though it is clear it's the right thing. I have asked him and the board to start to communicate more and instil confidence in investors. I am a sizeable shareholder and it is down to all of us to support and give advise to the board, they have to listen to shareholders. Please all contact Keith yourselves and we hope they listen and respond. It appears to my utmost surprise some people still believe what TW writes even though he has absolutely no credibility in the investing world. Fortunately I bought into NOP in the low twenties but I do feel sorry for those that bought at a much higher price, some of which would have done so on the back of TW's buy advice,, which tells us all what he is like.
Why would anyone even contemplate taking any notice of TW not sure any of his advice has ever been reliable. Keep focused on the basics of this company and it's ' production led growth strategy '. The balance sheet is strong and the only way they will need to raise funds would be to unlock something significant. For anyone on this board who have not come across TW before please don't be concerned he is a supposed tipster who quite frankly has no credibility.
My apologies I read between the lines and thought you where selling. We need to hold here for 12-24 months and it will come very good. I buy very few positions and only when a price is generally good value. Keep buying.
Mickeygit why are you pulling out now ? I've taken a further review of NOP as I'm holding a significant position in here and looking at the cash on the balance sheet and the prospect of 500bpd I see no reason why this company is not worth double current market cap. If you throw in Italy and Gyan then even more upside so it's just a waiting game now. I do however appreciate some of you bought in at a much higher level so it must have been frustrating. In reality at around 23-25p this is a buying opportunity. Mind you if Mickeygit selling means the prospect of a major oil discovery then please keep selling !!!
It will not happen in a very short space of time - we need to sit back and wait a while. Many on this board have commented on the fundamentals, and I have done all the work needed on the balance sheet and financials. I've had another look today at last 3 annual reports, and again can confirm current share price is under valuing the company, it's just time now. Hood tight and use any dip to top up. For those wanting short term gains then spread bet companies such as GSK that bottoms at 1550ish and tops at 1650ish - money to be made here on a 4 weekly cycle !
Guys I've spent more time over the weekend going through the 2013 annual report, previous presentations and the balance sheet. Overall this one is looking far cheaper than I originally thought. A few things we need to look out for in the half year report later in 2014. I want to see current opex spend, update on the Director LTIP details and of course the income we are getting from the current Oil being sold. I've done my calcs based on NOP getting to 500bpd and even at this the share looked grossly undervalued. Please be aware I am no expert on valuing Oilers, my knowledge is tech companies, however I'm convinced on this one and people like Poetical clearly have more oil experience than me, but my expertise on company financials may help some on this board. My last big holding in any oiler was Dana, so let's hope for another one like that one ! I'm currently holding 80,000 shares in this one, and will build on any weakness in share price.
I have spent more time on NOP today, and couple of things pop out. The 2013 annual report discusses the LTIP - has anyone seen any further updates on this ? (See below extract). This is imprtant as it is what the board of Directors will be rewarded with if they make progress. I have also done some more work on the balance sheet - assets total 83m atend 2013, reduced from 123m from 2012. 83m to me looks conservative, to say the least, so some good news the upside looks strong here. Overall I am feeling much more comfortable about this one, so I've bought in heavier today. LTIP The Remuneration Committee is in the process of reviewing the Group’s remuneration policy for the Executive Directors and other employees to ensure that the arrangements act as an appropriate tool with which to attract, retain and motivate key personnel who are critical to executing the business strategy. As part of this review the Remuneration Committee is proposing to introduce two elements to the Executive Director and senior management remuneration policy:
I went through the balance sheet and finances recorded for last year this morning. Overall it all looks in order, some suprises, such as how much ex-gracia they paid the previous MD ! Last years admin expenses was over 5m Euro, and not much spent on opoerations (circa 1.5m). On the basis they can get to 500bpd in the next few months this is looking increasingly positive, just need to understand the operational costs of current operations. Need to spend some more time on balance sheet, but first deep dive looks OK to me. Anyone got anything to add on the finances ? I will take a further look over the next few days.
Mickeygit what does your name mean?? Thanks for the welcome - picked up this one from the RNS that came out yesterday on Canada - it came across my feed Monday morning. Researched Monday on this and can't see anything that concerns me.....other than why the share price has been driven so low. Looking at research looks like old CEO was mis- managing this company ? I've delved deep into this management team as I always do - this is a very strong team. Cash in bank, assume will be eaten into for a while as they bring on line more revenue, but they should not bleed more that 3-5m before they get back to cash generative from my research - any other views ? Guyane looks interesting although it may take time from what's happened in the past. See it was tipped in various papers some months back - however there is more strength to the logic now. I will build positions in this one over the coming weeks / months and buy in on any weakness. Share looks good for 65-80p in 18/24 months unless they hit water ! Looks like a nice story building here.....will invest lot more here. Not normally into oilers, but this one looks special. For those interested in tech's the vislink (VLK) story is building nicely, I've been building positions since 17p....and still think this one will go beyond 80p so some upside to be had. We do need more posts like Poetical's as they add value, some of the posts on this site are nonsense and demonstrate amateurs at play.