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Looking at the buying patterns over the past few weeks it looks like there me be someone building a position in the background and picking up on dips. Interesting as it's not me !
Shell to takeover NOP ?
Looking again through the latest update and a review of the balance sheet I think I understand how Westhouse get there high target price on NOP. We have to assume break even is around 400bpd at current oil prices. If we then assume they could get Canada to 800-1000 bpd and oil price increase to $75-80, then we add in some potential for Italy it's entirely conceavable that we could get a profitable company with decent reserves and a market cap of upwards of £40m. Would like others views on this as it may be the work of a madman. I've had a friend who invests successfully in oil (unlike me who normally invests in techs, defensive and some high risk) and his analysis shows upside above my estimate.
Based on the figures in the update of they can get to circa 400-450 bpd and with the current cost reductions they will be at break even at current oil price. Any uplift in the oil price plus what KB describes as very high potential Italian assets are priced in as free. It would also appear the company will not need a cash call. Italy looks very promising. Key now is getting all the Canada production back on line. Others views welcome.
Very nice to see a 100,000 share purchase from one of the Directirs today. A real vote of confidence. Vislink is a long term hold and I think we will see 80p plus now within 3 years. In the meantime the dividend on offer is attractive.
Nice positive update from Simon Thompson in Investors Chronicle today. 60p target price set.
Nice summary by Pauly Pilot on Synety and one I concur with. Shame about the placing being at such a low price, clearly no appetite from the big funds for it. However opened up a nice buying opportunity at 90p. Buy now......tuck them away and come back in 18 months is the game here.
Look at the stats - revenue up more than 200% plus avwrage user revenue up 26% and the U.S just getting traction. This is not a short term hold this is a longer term hold. I have a few of these I bought at 1.46p but will now look to increase that stake considerably. I would also imagine this company could be taken over by a bigger player at some point. Treat the placing as a buying opportunity.
In the current climate shell must see huge potential here because otherwise they would not commit $50m investment to drill based on solid seismic data. Let's face it there are lots of potential oil and gas opportunities available out there so they must see somebody g big here. She'll will hold much more clout than NOP with the Italian goverment. Great news today and well done KB on making this happen. We just need Canada back on line quickly !!!
I've been in VLK for some time topping up on dips. Having studied the company for some time current fair value seems to be 60-70p. However the GoPro partnership could be game changing and so we need to watch progress here. I would see no reason to sell until we see what VLK says at the year end update and beyond. This company has a lot of potential and even at this price is undervalued.
Interested in others views , but we can assume that She'll see this as a big opportunity for them to invest in the current oil climate. Nice cash inflow for NOP and the best thing I see is that it reduces the Opex challenge on NOP as shell will pay the capital costs of this now. Others thoughts welcome please.
Cavendish are a very respected Fund managers that only buy long. This increase in their holding is significant as there research team are extensive. This is a very good sign that NOP is significantly under valued. I went in for more today increasing my holding by 100K shares. At last some good news for NOP.
We should try and at least focus on the positives here. NOP has no debt, but does have cash, it has assets that are worth more than the current MC - Canada alone would be valued much higher than £5m, plus they have other prospects. KB has a huge task on his hands, but he is strong and experienced. If you bought in here at more than 25-30p you may well have lost money, but anyone in at a lower price the upside is still here. Oil price is now stabising and talk of going up due to the significant reduction in capital expendature by all companies. What we need to here is that we have got to get back to 500bpd as this should keep is going - if not I feel a sell off is needed or someone takes over.
I guess we have to assume the assets of NOP are now worth a lot more than this market cap so although things look pretty bleak now for the brave this is a buying opportunity. If the price drops below 4p my intention is to buy another 200,000 as it would average me down to below 7p. I never normally do this but I'm sure these assets are worth a lot more than 7p. At least over the past year I've seen good times with my Vislink investment, GSK has done well for me and IQE I bought as it dropped down to 12p, so now a nice profit here. I recently did a large short on QPP as well which has covered the losses in NOP. Let's hope KB can rescue us !
We have to assume regular updates from the board on the companies status. We also have to hope they get oil back on line very soon and get the revenue stream matching costs - if they can stay bradly flat Opex to revenue there is hope in the longer term. NOP would find it very difficult to raise cash. The directors need to take drastic pay cuts now, its the right thing to do. I do think KB has the skill and experience to guide us through this storm. However this is the worst share I've ever owned and kick myself for not selling sooner. At this price though I do not intend selling.
Now and again you need faith and of course a bit of luck. There is not a trader in the world who doesn't pick a bad stock now and again. I'm in at an average price now of 13p so today was not good. Overall I'm comfortable that we will see the SP back at 25p plus - however I would like to see what value we could get by selling all assets and letting cash go to shareholders. Totally disagree with the fool called TW - KB is the right person to lead the company. mickeygit the board MUST reduce there salaries as there is no justification for these at the moment - did you raise this point ?
Must be best option now for KB to sell all the assets plus the cash and return this to shareholders. My rough analysis would say this would return 25-40p per share to all us shareholders. mickeygit what are your thoughts ?
SaltyPete thanks for your postings, but to clarify I do not consider myself as a small investor and as such feel very comfortable about e-mailing KB and him taking the time to respond. I have been investing for many years and have operated and sold two businesses of my own, so I would like to feel that I may be able to offer KB some useful advise. As you know I am relatively new to NOP, but believe in the production led growth strategy, I like NOP's balance sheet and think there is plenty of upside. For the record I've invested multiple times in NOP, with my current average price of 11.8p.
My long term holding Vislink has been tipped by ST again - sorry Simon I was here before you ! In all seriousness his article is very good and I believe we will see this company go from strength to strength.
Had a nice response from KB who seems to have taken my feedback on board. In general he seems to have dropped out significant Opex cost to preserve capital and keep the company running through the oil share price downturn. Very confident that the production led growth strategy will come through strongly over time. He is conscious that shareholders need a return and this is aligned with the strategy. We are dealing with a very good head of this company. Keep buying on SP dips.