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thanks notrader, you are correct there.
but ive also completely omitted the copper factor too and i wonder if that could possibly compensate any shortfall from inferred to indicated?
that has been cleared by others, and is certainly not being disputed.
but what i did is to try and figure out what the gold resource is confirmed to be based on what has been reported so far.
to get to the figure, note the following comments first:
"Newcrest has a registered interest of 40%in the Havieron Project’s mining lease in joint venture with Greatland Gold Plc.
Proportional Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves are reported in this statement."
"Havieron updated estimate added 0.77 million ounces of gold and 0.04 million tonnes of copper"
From the above two statements picked from the " Annual Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves Statement
– as at 31 December 2021" i am assuming that as of the year ending 31st Dec, the total gold ore reserves (indicated and inferred) is actually 1.925moz (0.77moz representing 40%)
As of end of 2020, there was 1.3moz gold ore reserves reported (for the 40%) therefore indicating a total amount of 3.25moz for havieron. I could not see any amount indicated in the 2019 figures.
accordingly as of end of 2021 total gold ore reserves should be MINIMUM 5.175moz.
i say minimum because i think i just heard sandeep state that not all drill holes have been included in their current figures because there is a 'process that needs to be followed before they can report it as an ore reserve'. i only heard this once, will need to verify this comment when the recording is out!
bottom line is that my simple mathematics is getting to 5.175moz gold ore reserves WITHOUT the updated MRE2 that should include more drill holes!
hope the above makes sense!
happy to be corrected if ive made any errors....
GLA!
Whilst the two principals know whats happening, i doubt the market will know the value of the 5% before the MRE2 is released. i think that the market may be given time to digest the MRE2 before we get to learn the value of the 5% offer.
may be best not to expect every bit of news overnight, and instead enjoy the rise with every new bit of information released over the coming days! And theres lots of it!
GLA
once the mre2 / 5% sets up a new base price for us, hopefully more pi's will be well above water and happy to hold for the real 'happy ending!'
no pun intended...
GLA
hi antigua
in my opinion neither ncm nor ggp need the 'official' mre2 to know what the value of the resource is. im guessing the mre2 is more of an independent conformation, and more important for investors such as us. negotiations must already be in full swing!
SD also hopefully knows what he’s doing
And at worst the arbitrators know what they’re doing. I’d like to believe the value to be paid will be for what it’s worth not more or less because of NCMs current market cap.
GLA
Good post sammylamb thank you.
I think qf meant nothing has changed negatively …
So we get a new high grade zone to the east, are nearing the official NCM update, expecting the MRE2 and could anytime get valued on 5% of havieron at any time but what does the share price do? And then if we say that based on this, there must be manipulation of some sort we are accused of being rampers!
I respect everyone’s genuine opinion, but seriously?
GLA
Hi Zoros
You have said
“2,000,000 x PoG ($1800) - aisc ($700) x 0.3 (GGP's share of the mine) divided by 4,200,000,000 shares in issue. Equals: A share price of 12p.”
1. The aisc according to me is a cost that newcrest would have to incur being the miners. It includes no profit to them. Under what pretext have you considered that they would not charge an additional margin to GGP to cover their processing costs? GGP are partners with newcrest on the ore body but not the processing centre - as per my understanding.
2. Your calculations consider that GGP would earn 1800per oz. But is this really the case? Isn’t 1800 the price to the end customer? Does the miner not sell to the “middle man” who needs to keep a margin too?
I fully realise my above comments point towards an even lower price than the 12p you’ve calculated, based on your mathematics.
Let me know what you think of the above
Cheers
Zoros
I think Kevin raises a pertinent question that you should look into.
Also I think that your figures assume that the entire “profit” will go to GGP. Do you think that newcrest or whichever processing facility will process our share at cost and not look at making any profit for themselves? I’m assuming the aisc figure only involves the cost of processing.
I absolutely agree hydrogen. So much more potential that’s simply not being reflected in the share price. But at the very least and using only figures we “know”, the sp is still way too low. Only market sentiment and or unknown market forces can be reason for where we are. I urge all that have invested and are worried to dig further into the details we have and you will hopefully be a little more relaxed with your investment and allow it’s true value to emerge in due course.
Hoping for the best!
GLA
Yellowstuff thank you
You are absolutely correct. I think I was just so relieved that my “conservative” figures still arrived in the 20s that I forgot completely about our copper! Lol I hope SD doesn’t forget that bit during his negotiations ;-)
GLA
Back to the drawing board trying to figure the recent price movement as I’m sure many have. Just thought I’d share some of my thoughts as it truly is baffling to see where we are. All arrows pointing towards a positive re rate on the way! Any comments from genuine investors will be appreciated….
“Rough workings”
Current price 13.60p
Market cap £550m
inferred+indicated 3.6moz
30% for GGP is 1.08moz
Based on above, the market has CURRENTLY valued each oz at £510 to GGP. I think it factors a projected uplift in reserves.
Now assume:
MRE2 expectation 6m oz
30%GGP is 1.8moz
Based on above and using the same value conversion, our new market cap should be 900m and take the price to 23p at the highest.
On the lower side due to current sentiment assume the market discounts the price per oz by 25%. That means that the share price is 17p
So by the above logic the share price should hit minimum 17p and maximum 23p when the mre is released if this reflects 6moz
Accordingly GGP should be paid minimum $155m for its 5%. Anything less than this won’t be good for the share price.
Now assume the MRE2 reflects 7moz that will take the min price higher by 17% = 19.8p
As far as the 5% price to newcrest is concerned, if the MRE2 confirms say 6m0z to date and we keep hitting gold with continued drilling, then FMV should consider an uplift on this by some margin. Assume this to be min 8moz which should mean that using the same formula the 5% is worth $200m
If this is what they arrive at, this immediately takes the market cap to an equivalent of 22p
Above doesn’t consider the pog which seems to be moving up and makes the numbers even better.
Any downside is certainly not visible with the info available to date
Holding tight
GLA
Hi Zoros
From what I understand, GGP / SD are "keen for an updated Resource and Reserve" but that the "preference is to release this jointly with NCM"
I wouldn't read much more into the 50% comment buddy as its all speculation for now
13.85..... seriously!?
GLA