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Yo Stupmy, very glad to see you are not talking about - or fearing - TUI hitting sub-£4.14 any more - which of course isn't to say we won't end up there. But today post close like you I see this starting upwards tomorrow for starters, heading back to at least £5.50 - we thought that was a low not long ago - with £6.00 back in its sights for later. We'll know very soon.
I am not the first one to notice the Great Results often translate into a Sinking Share Price.
Today's OTB rise of 14% is almost against the odds. It is now back to where it was 3 months ago and 6 months ago, But still down on the year.
Tui is down on all metrics but of course it had a RI - still opinion seems to be that it is still ridiculously low and there should be an upside on good results but, of, I forgot - this is the stock market. We are not in control.
Thanks for the detailed and well-considered post, Mike.
Suddenly "next" Wednesday is "this" Wednesday, so we will know all soon enough.
For now, I am putting my eggs in your basket. If only we could throw a bit of good news from the Middle East
or similar, I would really feel confident.
3 months since £6.00. Six weeks since we last saw £5.00, even since then we have been hovering barely above £4.00,
barely 50% of the TERP price
So a 20% to 30% drop no matter how you cut it - all on top of drops previously due to the RI and whatever.
Despite TUI doing well and reporting strong business.
And no reason for relief in sight. We might dream about fantastic results but as I noted before I have waited so often for them - and got them and seen the price crash more.
Hard to feel joy as Christmas beckons.
I wish I had had a few pennies to pop in sub £4.10, Stupmy - or even now to spread the risk.
But I am one of those people locked in here until some sanity prevails, so I look to the past for guidance.
Last Tuesday we had a great day as well, up nearly 7% - but then spent the rest of the week trending lower.
Hoping for better this week. Wish you luck with below £4.40 - but personally hope we never see it again.
Good analysis, SK, but, goodness, I am tired of having to always look to the future for a rise. Always hoping. Fingers crossed. What a painful 3 months this has been since we were at £6.00 - and looking at £8.00 following the RI. Down 25% no matter how you cut it. Ok, enough whinging. I'll go back to bed for a few more weeks and hope for better times.
So we came through Covid and recovery started, maybe prompting inflation but we tightened our belts and various entities are back to pre-pandemic levels - from London's Oxford St and tubes to CCL and Heathrow - and yet now the whole economy is going to crash!
I worry that might be the case and there his evidence of fragility - yes, credit card debt and so on - but another side of me just can't believe this is Armageddon. But then I'm the guy who would never have thought that TUI could drop 20% below £5.00. Yet there we are.
That terrible sound you heard this morning was me throwing my hands up in despair.
Some 20 times over the last few years I have waited for results for this or that stock, hoping they would be good and provide a boost, and almost every time the results have been good, even great sometimes, like Easyjet, and the results have the exact opposite effect, sinking the ship.
No more waiting around for trading results for me. Grrrr!
A nice day for sure - up .27pd to £4.37.
Now if we could just have another half dozen or 10 days like that we might finally be where Barclays was forecasting.
I missed their call when it was made - less than a month ago. Seems like last century.
15-Sep-23 Barclays calls for 690.00 Reiteration
Tui slumped yesterday as soon as US opened - as the DOW started falling.
But of course, after we closed down, the US shot up. Lucky them, having landed us in it.
And Asia is booming today. Can we pick up some of the breeze, please?
Well, out of his leverage, at least. Thanks for doing that Stupmy! And you seem to have hit the button at the right time, just before the usual afternoon sell off.
And now that you are out it is bound to rise and benefit the rest of us - and you too, I know. Stand by for £4.50 tomorrow. Maybe higher. I wish.
Well done, Stupmy, I'd be buying if I had any money left but, like a few others on this board perhaps, I have zero under the bed and indeed am looking to get some cash out to cover my Hallow'een costume and a few other essential. If you have a few strings to pull , could you please get this back by next week to my £5.80 b/e. Fat chance.
Yes, Stupmy, I remember that call too. Although I think I remember it as maybe £4.08. Or maybe that was someone else's call. Such figures seemed folly at the time. Even your last buy in target of £4.67 seemed hugely optimistic. And yet here we are! Is this at last the low? Surely! Please. Like many on this board, I can't fathom how it is being driven down so low so consistently.
Wow, up 5% in just 2 days! Amazing.
But wait a minute that only takes us back to where we were at the end of a bad Monday 3 days ago.
We are still down over 7% on the last 5 days - have to hold on to what we got - and keep moving up pronto!
Two sides to every story: Evening Standard London yesterday:
Soaring new towers show the sky’s still the limit for the City
City Comment: It’s extraordinary in a time of hybrid working that the extra space on offer at these two soaring office citadels can be absorbed so easily.
https://www.standard.co.uk/business/soaring-new-towers-city-bishopsgate-the-shard-viewing-platform-free-views-office-space-b1109525.html
Maybe companies are pulling out of building deals because they want to move into a more modern property.
Let's hope it is not the End of the World yet.
The last few posts are all by people I respect but they still leave me bemused because they make it sound as if there is a fundamental logic to the markets / this share.
As I mentioned last week, even when rates and things were worse, there was a consensus that £6 was still cheap and TWERP was on the cards.
Now even Stumpy is expecting below £4.70 as if that would be logical.
Having last night seen the film "Dumb Money" about how "retail" investors like us (the Dumb Money guys or Useful Idiots if you prefer) finally banded together and squeezed the short big time, I don't hold out much hope for logic.
Because in the end behind the scenes the Hedge funds and regulators banded together to protect their interests and that's where we get shut out.
Thanks, SK.
Actually the Subject is part spoof, as I don't trust figures like this one bit.
Certainly don't see any signs of inflations coming down at my local Tesco.
But whatever the truth, the headline should impact positively - indeed, it already has - and if the BoE does not raise rates, this has to get back to a more realistic price.