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Did anyone here attend the recent AGM?
https://www.**********.co.uk/articles/richard-staveley-laurence-hulse-of-gresham-house-updates-vox-markets-on-their-portfolio-48bc3d9/
RPS mentioned at around 40 mins in.
Quite a few companies could be of interest to $TTEK but they are mainly smaller private businesses. Some examples of water consultant are:
https://waterco.co.uk/
https://www.sme-water.co.uk/
But there are many like this and lots of the smaller players wouldn’t really move the needle and/or don’t have water economics expertise.
Not sure if anyone saw my recent article:
https://cube.investments/rps-group-takeover-target-an-update/
Comments welcome.
Bear
The lease savings in the last financial year are only around £125k as it’s from 31st May to 30th Sep (4 months) - not 12 months.
The full benefit will be felt over the next 2 reporting periods until May 2021 and will help mitigate macro headwinds.
I’m very happy for the business to be “stable” all things considered and with the commendable cash position Mr Market is clearly now seeing some value here with the valuation now at an 18 month high.
One thing I haven’t seen mentioned here is that MWG has a circa £5m tax asset given cumulative losses since IPO hence this should be attractive to a potential acquirer as those losses could be used by the combined entity to mitigate taxation on profits. The mcap of the Group is current £1.85m
My AGM notes here:
https://cube.investments/haynes-publishing-group-hyns-agm-report/
My latest thoughts:
https://cube.investments/ashley-house-reflection-on-a-painful-lesson-ash/
My latest thoughts here:
https://cube.investments/d4t4-solutions-trading-update-d4t4/
Feedback welcome.
My latest thoughts here:
https://cube.investments/haynes-publishing-group-firmly-in-top-gear-hyns/
Bear
Haven’t visited this board for a while but I’ve missed your ongoing cheery disposition towards Aukett.
Year end was 30th Sep (yesterday) and at the June interims the expectation was for a full year profit. One can perhaps assume that if the market is not updated prior to the results being released in January 2020 then all is on track but time will tell.
Clearly the UK is in troubled waters (generally) but I’m aware that Aukett remain busy on projects and ones such as the Lesso Mall (Samanea Market) in Dubai are significant for the Group given this project has a construction value of US$272m. Apply a notional fee value % to this and its evidentially material to the Group (hence it being RNS’d) -and will be now duly be reflected in the numbers this year and next.
The share price has been very resilient during 2019 so far considering the sector outlook in the UK and I take this as further evidence that against the odds the Group is keeping its head above water and might surprise investors.
We will have to probably wait until January to find out.
https://cube.investments/rps-group-takeover-target-rps/
Comments welcome thanks.
Results will likely be the end of this coming week. Hard to ascertain the overall sentiment but clearly the market is challenging.
Hopefully investors will are the overall UK business at break even which would a good result all things considered. I’m expecting the Middle East to be poor although I’m aware there are some bright spots in that market.
Again, Europe will be a mixed bag I expect.
We may also see the impact of IFRS being introduced as per many other companies over the last year or so.
hxxps://www.housinglin.org.uk/News/Hampshire-CC-starts-work-on-5-new-extra-care-schemes/
Exciting news that not only has the Romsey scheme started on site implying Financial Close must have been acheived but also news of a big scheme in Havant.
Based on the approx 10 schemes either on site, at FC or recently compeleted (Scarborough) and taking into account sales from F1 schemes such as the schools and Modular 500 type projects (kiosks for Pirelli, Greggs etc), I think the Group has smashed FY19 forecasts with FY20 already looking really positive with a lot of these schemes spanning into FY20 and new ones lined up for FC such as the 4 in Leeds plus Gosport, New Milton and the 2 in Leicester etc.
Assuming up to 2.9 EPS for FY 20 and using even a low 6 x multiple gives a valuation of around 18p - twice the current SP.
I have been buying as you would imagine. :)
https://cube.investments/mountfield-group-cashing-in-on-a-5g-bonanza-mogp/
Also some interesting info here from JLL re: 5G and he data centre boom:
https://www.us.jll.com/en/trends-and-insights/cities/how-5g-is-set-to-spur-new-data-center-construction
https://youtu.be/Gi8xPugOWwc
Lots of good progress being made at ASH. Year end now June and Board hoping to close up to 3 further extra-care schemes before the year end. YE 2020 looks like its going to be a very good year - current forecast rev of GBP 8.1m (reduced as Morgan Ashley income flows in via profit line only) and EPS 0f 2.6p - PE of just 3.6
I'm known for my typing errors! Corrected para below:
"Aukett (over the same 3 year average) implies a value of GBP 21.5k per staff member which is understandable given the smaller business and more lumpy trading / thinner margins etc. BUT, currently at GBP 2.9m mcap the value per staff member is around GBP 8.5k, way below the sector average".
This is a great debate and I appreciate your bearish stance.
One other way of looking at the value of Aukett (related to juicing sales) is the value the market assigns to each staff member.
From a review of Waterman, RPS, WYG and DRV (none of which are Architectural business I admit but are the only 'plc' comparatives we can use), the value per staff (on average over 3 years) was as follows:
WTM - GBP 34k
WYG - GBP 23.5k
DRV - GBP 74k
RPS - GBP 93k
Aukett (over the same 3 year average) implies a value of GBP 21.5m per staff member which is understandable given the smaller business and more lumpy trading / thinner margins etc. BUT, currently at GBP 2.9m mcap the value per staff member is around GBP 8.5m, way below the sector average.
If someone acquired AUK for lets say GBP 5m, they could strip out around GBP 1.2m of Plc costs from day 1 including the listing, broker, auditor and Board etc. 2018 final results were kitchen sinked and included lots of one-off bid costs, property costs etc. The 2017 results of a GBP 325k loss could have been a GBP 875k profit as part of a larger entity without plc costs.
6-8 x GBP 875k = GBP 5-7m mcap / valuation.
I agree they have branding / positioning issues and should focus on a core offering rather than spreading themselves thinly in order to diversify. Your points are all generally valid BUT lots of people said nobody would want WYG as the balance sheet was shot to bits (GBP 10m debt) + covenant issues etc.
Irrespective of many of the salient points you raise, professional staff have a value and Aukett's valuation of GBP 2.9m is anomalous. With the Board owning 50% of the stock this business will be sold - its just a matter of when.