Member Info for VistaMan

I missed the investor call, hope I can hear a recording later and will reserve judgement until I can.
You quoted BP debt of $4.5 million at year end. Apparently it had been $3.737 million at end June 2021 and was supposed to have been paid off by September 2022. I find this disturbing in that all you ever hear from the company is fully funded and generating cash. It might have been before ASH began to water out. I find BL a bit of a rampy blather to be honest.

Tuvok, try a dummy sell / buy. The actual spread is 4.5%. Never rely on reported bid/offer as indication of real spread.

Ginger, Thanks for the response, I am not challenging your or Rift's numbers, just trying to understand the situation better. Can you explain how you discount the gross revenue to obtain your net revenue for H1 please?
Thanks, Vista.

Ginger, why are your and Rift's figures materially different?

Does anyone know if the prepayment financing of up to US$ 8 million provided by the BP Group at the time of acquisition has been fully repaid?

Best thing this share chat board could do is organise an attempt to oust Sanderson and the board. It can be done, look at Hurricane where PIs got organised behind Crystal Amber. I don't know if UKOG has any Institutional Investors but would find it hard to believe they would be still supportive of Sanderson. Despite the non-delivery and deceit he is still taking a huge salary for a ~100 bpd "oil company"!

Apologies, I used the wrong hedged quantity, in the interim results presentation I see that 100,000 MWH per month hedged, I had been using a figure quoted in an interview with AA. Hopefully correct this time!

Current net production rate = (12,700*0.6) = 7,620 boepd / 42.7 MMscf
Hedged quantity = ((100,000/30.5) * 3412 / 5600) = 1,998 boepd / 11.2 MMscf

Using 5.6Mcf = 1 BOE, and 1MWH = 3,412cf and Dutch TTF at E 95 per MWH

Unhedged Revenue = (42.7-11.2) * 1,000,000 * 95 / 3412 = E 877,052
Hedged Revenue = 11.2 * 1,000,000 * 25 / 3412 = E 82,063
Total Revenue = E 959,115 per day

Opex per day at $5.50 per boe = 7,620 * 5.5 * 0.88 = E 36,880

Operating Cash Flow = ( 959,115 - 36,880 ) = E 922,235 per day

Vista

DG93, my numbers are a little different than yours primarily because the 25% hedging IMO applies to the H1 production rate and not the year end production rate. I haven't read or heard anything that suggests AA increased hedging beyond 25% of the H1 production rate. So:

Current net production rate = (12,700*0.6) = 7,620 boepd / 42.7 MMscf
Hedged quantity = (8,600*0.6 *0.25) = 1,290 boepd / 7.2 MMscf

Using 5.6Mcf = 1 BOE, and 1MWH = 3,412cf and Dutch TTF at E 95 per MWH

Unhedged Revenue = (42.7-7.2) * 1,000,000 * 95 / 3412 = E 988,423
Hedged Revenue = 7.2 * 1,000,000 * 95 / 3412 = E 200,468
Total Revenue = E 1,188,891 per day

Opex per day at $5.50 per boe = 7,620 * 5.5 * 0.88 = E 36,880

Operating Cash Flow = ( 1,188,891 - 36,880 ) = E 1,152,011 per day

Vista

I just bought in here recently and am wondering am I missing something? Both HL and LSE give the market cap at ~£4 million. However I have seen figures of 40M and 44M quoted as the market cap on this board. Have I missed a share consolidation or something?

Hopefully the Capital Markets Day in November will permit DEC to address all the issues raised in detail and permit a significant recovery. Remember a previous article that dropped the SP significantly around the cost of decommissioning a well at DEC versus other companies turned out to be garbage also and the SO recovered.

For those of you who believe this is a Ponzi Scheme, please look at charts 7 and 13 of the Asset Retirement Supplement presentation dated August 20,2021 on the DEC website. Surely you can see that the ARO is being recognised and planned for in the financial planning, never mind the significant boost in cash flow over the next few years with much higher strip prices than just a few months ago.

GG, The Phase 1 Part 1 flows and revenue you quote are Gross? 50% Net to IOG?
Thanks, Vista

toro, I am only new here but the gas production figures you are using to calculate 2021 revenue are gross figures surely rather than net? I could be wrong.

Today is a good example of why I always purchase target quantity of shares over a number of transactions. Buy in yesterday, placing today! That said it looks like a good update accompanying the Placing. Expect the unexpected in investing!
Vista

GG, Could I ask for your take on the expected production rate for the Phase 1 Project? I have assumed that a figure of 70 MM scf/d NET from page 4 of the April 21 investor presentation was for Phase 1. With the reported flow results for Blythe at 58 MM scf/d Gross it seemed to me that 70 was reasonable figure for the 3 fields?
Vista

Edgar, Here are my revenue numbers based upon:
180p per therm (futures show >180p for next 6 months)
70MM scf/d NET production to IOG post Southwark start-up in Q2 22
1M scf = 10.37 therms

Daily revenue = (70,000,000/1000)*10.37*1.80 = ~£1.3MM per day

Happy to hear any corrections to this.
Are there any current broker notes for IOG?
Vista

Bought in here today and will add further. Having done my research this looks like a monster revenue producer even at half of today's NBP prices. I must admit I am surprised by the lack of posts on the board given the outlook here.
Vista

Ragnar, I don't believe the market has appreciated what the increase in spot and hence forward curve gas prices could mean for DEC, even with their extensive hedging already in place. They have 75% hedged for 2022 at $2.69, looking at the forward curve they could probably hedge the remainder at ~ $3.70, a significant increase in margin. For 2023 they have 30% hedged. For the first hald the hedge is at $2.42. Looking at the forward curve for first half 2023 they could probably hedge around $3.30, another significant margin increase. They could pay down debt quickly, make acquisitions or increase dividends.
Vista.

RNS states before end of September.

Suffolk, Whilst I know from RRE experience that he doesn't advocate excessive hedging, the current TTF prices must make it very tempting to lay on incremental hedges. It will be good to see resumption of unrestricted production and then positive outcomes of the sidetrack and the re-stimulation of the 2 Q10 wells. If he had all of these in the bag then I am sure there is scope for him to increase volume of hedges whilst still keeping some exposure to commodity pricing.
Can't believe there are people selling Kistos at the current TTF prices.
Vista