Member Info for VistaMan

I see a lot of my posts from yesterday have been removed despite them having multiple recommendations and not being offensive or derogatory in any way. Didn't realise we had a Cabal or censorship operating here.Anyone want to put their hands up and take responsibility?

asp1, thanks for taking the time to try and explain this to fellow posters on here. This discussion comes up almost every time results are published, certainly when the hedges are lower than the spot prices. I had attended several results conference calls where Eric Williams has had to explain the non-cash charges for "marking to market" the outstanding derivatives resulting in a reported loss. Its not a concern for shareholders just as I won't be celebrating the likely "profit" report for 2023 from a reversal of hedge / spot prices this year . (Our hedges will give us a competitive advantage this year)
Its DECs business model to hedge to ensure it can meet all its commitments including debt repayments/interest and importantly for us dividends. Its prepared to give up some upside to ensure there is no downside and that all commitments will be met.
Vista

Ginger, Thank You, I'll have a look there.

Ginger, could I ask where the 50-60% COS comes from? I haven't seen this anywhere but it seems a little high for a new frontier drill?
Vista.

Dog,
A trend is based upon what has already happened, there is no uptrend based upon historic SP performance.
I am a holder here since Jan 2019 and have made numerous purchases in 2019 and 2020.
I still hold all my shares and hope that the SP will rise to where I can exit without much damage.
I distrust Larkin, I won't repeat all the reasons why here but he is a BLather and you have to realise he has a vested reason to promote the company.
Multiple views on the company / BOD should be useful for investors.
I find rampant exaggeration distasteful as it can sucker in investors unwilling or unable to do their own research. There is a lot of it on this board which is not factually based.
We all want to make money, I don't want to at someone else's expense.
I try to keep my posts fact based.
Vista

Colin60, I have written to Simply Wall Street on multiple occasions about factually inaccurate, out of date and incomplete reporting. They do at least reply but have yet to repudiate any of the points I have raised with them. They are lazy and will use annual reports which could be 15 months out of date to base their articles on. I certainly wouldn't take as gospel anything in their articles. They very rarely use up to date information such as RNSs etc.
DYOR

GP7,
" Once they are gone uptrend is there for all to see."
I am sorry, I can't see any uptrend no matter what timeframe you select.
And unlike yourself I certainly don't trust Brian, I consider him a BLather.
I have seen many farm-out discussions and they usually , if indeed they actually find a partner, resulting in a relatively poor deal for the license holder, especially when the license is in an unproven hydrocarbon province. Like many other CEOs the commentary in advance of the deal has been "much interest with multiple high quality partners"!
I hope I am wrong!

EarlofAim,
I would advise anyone interested in investing here to read the Tennyson Report that your post linked to and ask themselves:
1. How did ASH4 well actually turn out?
2. How did the ASF-1X well turn out? Despite the broker note ramping the "relatively low risk nature of the drill"
3. How much did the Maria sale raise versus the $30MM risked that the broker note attributes, answer a definite $3MM, anything else above this is only a possibility and an absolute maximum total of $8MM.
You have to take House Broker's reports with a large pinch of salt, they are after all essentially company marketing documents but this one is more rampy than normal.
The ASH8 well was certainly a good initial result, certainly a higher initial flow rate than I expected but I am not celebrating yet based upon what happened at ASH4 and at ASH3 after initial early success there as well.
Until there is a well defined farm-out for Jamaica the market will ascribe no value to it. Lets hope they can be successful but there are no guarantees.

Scoutingforit, I see you didn't complete the information on ASH-4, just 9 days after the data that you quote was released by UOG it issued the following:
"The well was brought on stream on 17 November 2022 on the 32/64" choke size and although initial flow-rates were in excess of the well-test average, over recent days the rates from the well have sharply declined, suggesting that the well is connected to a smaller volume of oil than had been expected pre-drill. The choke size has now been reduced to 24/64" to manage the reservoir and production rates from the well, which are expected to stabilise over the coming days, but these will be at a lower level than had previously been anticipated."
Its interesting that UOG never followed up with an actual production rate, you can imagine it was quite low and UOG don't like reporting negatives!
To me its trying to mislead people about the potential of ASH-8 by quoting a flow rate for ASH-4 that was sustained for less than a week!
I own shares here but I don't like seeing ramping or quoting of selective facts that leads to people being duped!

Jim800, you are incorrect, the discount does affect the number of shares to be placed. The company sets a figure of pounds/dollars to raise and the number of shares to be issued is a function of the placing price and hence determines the extent of dilution of existing shareholders.

I have no issue with the Tanos purchase, according to DEC the purchase is accretive so talk of reduced dividend is nonsense. There may be a short term SP hit but it will be short lived. The raise was done with only a 5% discount thus minimising dilution. Regarding the retail offer, while this could have been c!early handled better, I am not concerned as invariably private investors will get the chance to add at close to the placing price in the open market.
With the dividend yield now 13.4% (in a SIPP) I will add.
The company intends to continue to grow to facilitate a NASDAQ listing. If you look at the acquisition history, most is debt financed so some equity financing is not a problem for me.
Just my opinion.

Headline for me is the guidance. Q1 22 averaged 1267 bpd of oil. Guidance for H1 23 is 700-900 bpd of oil.
Taking 800 bpd as the mid point that's a yearly decline of 36.9%! And that's after spending $7MM on capital to grow the production with development, workovers and exploration wells!!!
As Larkin states "As the asset matures" - this is management speak for recognising it's in sharp decline. In my words its a busted flush.
I wonder how much if any BLather will cut his own salary!

House broker valuation of £33.5 million, UOG achieve a maximum of £5.7 million, only £2.45 million guaranteed! I did say the house broker valuation note note no relationship to what was achievable in a sale process. What happened to all the blather from Larkin just a few months ago about them developing Maria themselves? Some more money to extend the lifestyle runway! Another hopeful valuation catalyst gone!
Vista.

Rift, I don't think they have much choice. Where would they get funding from, equity is almost out of the question given their recent track record. Lets hope they get a good price!
By the way, when have you ever heard Larkin say anything other than positive blather and look how many of those situations haven't materialised.

rift,
the report has been prepared by the house broker, consider it company marketing material. The valuation they give to Maria is £33.5 million, that £5.5 per 2P barrel! Nobody values 2P reserves at anything approaching that in a sale process. You will get an even lower multiple for a small field like Maria.

Sorry typo, CAN'T BLAME

O2B@C,
Its the same partners in Abu Sennan who are determining the drill targets, you can blame a rig or drill crew if there are no hydrocarbons present in the target formations. I said it before but to me Abu Sennan increasingly looks like a busted flush. I will be shocked if year end 23 production even matches year end 22. At these production rates and oil prices i wonder how they will be able to pay for drills, BP Loan and admin costs. Can't see any cash left by year end 23. This exploration well was a chance to lift the gloom here but now I think we need BOD salary reductions, massively overpaid for the production rates.

I3E showed how to return value to shareholders this morning, announcing a minimum dividend for 2023 which is an increase of 59% over 2022. Giving a yield of just under 10%! Makes SQZs look miserable.

I bought in after the acquisition was announced, average of just over 5p. Anyway, enough of I3E, I was just digging up some historical acquisition metrics to compare / contrast with SQZ acquisition. I am still of the opinion SQZ's is on the expensive side and doesn't do anything to differentiate geographically / reduce the EPL impact. You would have thought with the EPL in play in the North Sea it would have reduced asset prices!

GL, Yeah, I am only up 300% now on I3E.